Wild 10's Rules the Roost

After a revamp of the current evaluation system, Wild 10's maintains its top billing. Your chances of winning a $10,000 Grand Prize are currently 8000:1. Last week saw 6 of the Grand Prizes claimed from the 50,000 tickets that were sold. This game has currently sold almost 70% of its ticket float which means that tickets should remain readily available over the next few weeks. If you are put off by the relatively low Grand Prize when compared to the price of the ticket, try $200 Million. Feedback has been positive from readers of this blog who have dabbled in that game.

Thanks go out to the two readers who posted messages to the blog concerning the claiming of Grand Prizes in the Double Cash for Life Game #1162. I update my information on Thursdays and the next day another prize had been claimed. A further Grand Prize was claimed during this past week leaving only 1 of the Grand Prizes in that game with fully 85% of the tickets left to be sold. Both the Cash For Life games are now poor propositions yet they are very popular games with players. It is always good practice to check at the store or at  the mobile site http://www.scratchodds.com/ or at the OLG site http://www.olg.ca/lotteries/games/viewInstantTicketInfo.do to ensure that nothing has changed with the game you intend to play. Take nothing for granted.

Best Overall Rated Games

1. Wild 10's
2. $200 Million
3. Texas Hold'em
4. Fast 200's
5. Extravaganza

Games to Avoid

• Quest For Gold Crossword
• Tetris
• Cash for Life #1159

$1 - $2 Game Update

Twelve cents out of every dollar spent on Fast 200's is returned to the Grand Prize winners. This is good. The downside is that only one ticket in every 7.94 is worth more than the $2 you paid for it. It is the top rated game in this group.

$3 Games

Texas Hold'em continues to be a good game in this group. It is recommended for those who balk at paying $10 for a ticket.

$4 - $5 Games

Cleopatra is another game that flies under the radar. You have one chance in 200,000 to win $100,000 for a $5 ticket. Not bad.

$10 - $20 Games

It's interesting how slowly the $200 Million tickets are selling. The game was introduced in early April. About 25% of the tickets have been sold to date. By comparison, Super Bingo and Tetris were introduced at the same time. Over 80% of the $3 tickets for both of these games have been sold to date. I'm not the only one who can suffer from price resistance.

Comings and Goings

It's the dog days of summer. No new games and no retirements this week. We'll let the OLG staff have some vacation.

Personal Play

I erred last week when I stated that there was a 3% chance of having 8 losing Wild 10's tickets in a row. The actual chance of that happening was 6%. Well, I had another wipe out last week. I am now 0 for my last 12 tickets. There is a 1.6% chance of that happening. The strange thing is that my seller had to open another package of tickets for me last week. I got the last four tickets in the trip again. It defies all logic to think that there is something to that but we human beings innately look for patterns. That won't be happening to me again.

Wild 10's is now the worst game that I have played this year. I have cashed on 7 out of 27 tickets for a measly $120. My overall cash rate is down to 35% and my total return on investment is 72%. This is becoming intolerable!


Doug

Wild 10s Stays on Top - For Now

Wild 10s retained its position over the past week. Fifteen of the $10,000 Grand Prizes were claimed last week from the 60,000 tickets sold. Your odds to win one of the remaining 59 Grand Prizes are 8,000:1.

I have been looking at my evaluation method and I have concluded that it needs to be tweaked. Any game that devotes more of its total revenue to the Grand Prize does very well based upon the existing rating method. That fact is important but I think that I am providing too much weight for it. This is not to say that the games that I have been recommending have been poor, it just means that I need a little more balance in the formula. I will change it this week and report on the details of that change in next week's blog.

Best Overall Rated Games

1. Wild 10's
2. Double Cash For Life (Game 1162)
3. $200 Million
4. Fast 200's
5. Texas Hold'Em

Fast 200's is a prime example of my need to re-calibrate the formula. It is a new game with a heavy weighting towards the Grand Prize(s). This makes the game one to watch but, in my opinion, it should not be the 4th rated game before selling any tickets.

Games to Avoid

• Quest For Gold Crossword (5%)
• Tetris (13%)
• Cash for Life (71%) (Game 1159)

I have included the estimated percentage of the ticket float remaining for each of these games. I always find what the OLG does in this area to be disconcerting. Most games are retired when the float drops down below 20%. Quest For Gold Crossword and Tetris are both well below this number but the OLG continues to flog these tickets. Cash for Life has the misfortune to have revealed all three of its Grand Prizes early in its life cycle. Lets see how long this game remains in play. The OLG policy is to retire games where the Grand Prize is $100,000 or more once all the Grand Prizes have been claimed. That should be the case here as the Net Present Value of the Grand Prize for this game is greater than $100,000.

$1 - $2 Game Update

Two new games were introduced this week. Fast 200's looks good. It is one of the games like Pick 3 and Wild 10's where there are lots of Grand Prizes but the Grand Prizes are small. In this case, it is only $200 but there are 3909 to be won.

$3 Game Update

Texas Hold'Em is the best game in this group by a significant margin.

$4 - $5 Games

The Cash For Life Games are always popular. We currently have a very good one and a very bad one. Be careful - play Double Cash For Life.

$10 - $20 Games

Although Wild 10's is our top rated game, none is poor in this category.

Comings and Goings

Cross Express is a new $1 game. Note that apart from the 4 - $10,000 Grand Prizes, there are no prizes available of $100 or more. The ratio of tickets that return your $1 is low, which is a positive. Your chances to win any prize is second best for the $1 - $2 Games.

Fast 200's is a good game with lots of $200 Prizes. If it's action you want rather than a big prize, play away.

A new Bingo (Game 3009) has surprisingly been introduced. I say surprising as the existing game (Game 3008) is in mid-life. The two games are very similar in structure but if you wish to play this game, play the new one.

Personal Play

I'm streaking downwards fast! Last week was my first shut out of the year. I followed that up with another shut out this week. My cash rate is now down to 37% and my Return on Investment to 75%. This is getting serious.

There is only a 3% chance of having eight consecutive losers in Wild 10's. I often wonder why my bad luck is routinely more dramatic than my good luck. A reader once asked me if there is any advantage to where the tickets are in a strip. I did not quite understand the question but now I do. The seller last week opened a new package of tickets and peeled my four off the back of the strip. The same thing happened today although I have yet to scratch my tickets for this week. The answer to the readers questions must be "NO", but who knows really? These tickets are produced by computer programs with random number generators. Who's to say that there have never been quirks in the "fail proof" system. It's not like it has never happened before! http://www.wired.com/magazine/2011/01/ff_lottery/

Play safe.

Doug

Wild 10s Still the Preferred Choice

Wild 10s improved its position over the past week during which time 60,000 tickets were sold and only 3 of the $10,000 Grand Prizes were claimed. Your chance to win one dropped from 7,700:1 to 7,200:1. The second rated game, Double Cash For Life, sadly surrendered one of its 4 Grand prizes after only exhausting 5% of its ticket float. Players need to remember that when buying a Cash For Life ticket, make sure that it is Game 1162 and not game 1159. The former is a good choice, the latter is a bomb.

Best Overall Rated Games

1. Wild 10s
2. Cash For Life 1162
3. $200 Million
4. Pick 3
5. Texas Hold'Em

Games to Avoid

• Quest For Gold Crossword
• Tetris
• Cash For Life 1159

$1 - $2 Game Update

Pick 3 continues as a good choice in this category. For those looking for a bigger Grand Prize than is offered with Pick 3, try Silver Gold.

$3 Game Update

Texas Hold'Em continues to get stronger in this group. It is substantially better than any other $3 game, at the moment. Two $75,000 Grand Prizes are left to be claimed.

$4 - $5 Games

Double Cash For Life continues to rate high based upon the three remaining large Grand Prizes. Even though one was lost last week, the game remains a good choice.

$10 - $20 Games

If the small but plentiful $10,000 prize does not motivate you to invest $10 in a game, the $200 Million game is also a good one. Neither of Classic White nor Extravaganza are bad plays, but the other two are better choices.

Comings and Goings

$3 Scrabble 1754 was added this week. This is a game with a float of 3,141,600 tickets that includes 3 - $75,000 Grand Prizes. The prize distribution looks good:
Grand Prize - 2.4%
Prizes less than Grand Prize and at least $100 - 3.4%
Prizes more than the cost of the tickets and less than $100 - 46.3%
Prizes worth the cost of the ticket - 12.9%
Profit - 35.1%

More Lucky #1733 and Bonus Banco #1641 were both retired. Bonus Banco was one of only four games that were initiated in 2012. The game still had 45% of its float left including 1 of the 6 -  $50,000 grand prizes. It was a poor game to play and I am thus pleased to see it go. More Lucky continued to be not a bad choice with 1 of its 3 - $75,000 Grand Prizes left to be claimed and 19% of its ticket float left when it was terminated.

The Grand Prize winners for the two retired games hailed from: North York (1 for each game), St Albert, Port Elgin, Scarborough, and Etobicoke.

Personal Play

My bad luck continues. I made a personal error this week when my usual store was sold out of Wild 10s when I arrived. Instead, I picked up four at a magazine stand in a shopping mall. I don't like doing that and I paid the price when I was shut out. Frank in Scarborough had terrible luck at a magazine store in the Scarborough Town Center.I should have learned my lesson from him. My cash rate is now 37% and my Return on Investment has now slipped to 75%.

Thanks to readers who have messaged me about their individual playing styles. One reader was ahead on $200 Million after having bought 16 tickets! I like to hear that.

I also received a message asking how I know how many tickets have been sold. The answer to the question is that I don't - I estimate the number based upon the numbers that the OLG publishes on the Outstanding Prize information sheet.

I need some luck and Independence Day seems as good as any day for me to turn things around.

Doug

Wild 10s - For The Time Being

Wild 10s surrendered ten of its Grand Prize winners last week while selling 50,000 tickets. There are 77 Grand prizes left to be claimed and 594,000 tickets left to sell. Your chances to win one are one in 7,700.

I have been thrown a curve ball by the OLG. Every time I devise a mathematical system to determine what the best game is to play, they come out with a game that exploits my method. This time it is Double Cash For Life. The game only began this week but it already computes as a top game. Further explanation to follow.

I am considering tweaking my system. Before doing so, I'd be interested to hear from any readers as to what you look for in a game. I know what a bad game looks like but the best game can be difficult to define - different tastes and all. Do you want large Grand Prizes, many Grand Prizes, lots of middle prizes, lots of smaller prizes, most winning tickets? For me, the Grand Prize is important but if that was all, I should be buying 649 tickets where a large part of every draw goes to the winner. Other winners fight over the scraps. Instant Games are more democratic and ostensibly more fun to play. So drop me a line, I'd be interested to hear of personal preferences.

Best Overall Rated Games

1. Wild 10s
2. Double Cash For Life - 1162
3. $200 Million
4. Pick 3
5. Cleopatra

Games to Avoid

• Quest for Gold Crossword
• Tetris
• Cash for Life - 1159

Note: Be very careful with the Cash for Life games. Game #1162 is new and a good choice. Game #1159 has no Grand Prizes left! Check with the retailer if you get to the store and forget which is which. Or you can check on your mobile at www.scratchodds.com .

$1 - $2 Game Update

Pick 3 continues to be a good game. If you don't like the tiny $500 Grand Prize, then $2 Silver Gold is the next best game in this group.

$3 Game Update

Texas Hold'Em is the best pick in this area. Your odds to win one of the two remaining $75,000 Grand Prizes are 1:390,000, down from 1:852,000 when the game began.

$4 - $5 Games

Double Cash For Life springs from the gate as a good choice here. Of the games that have been selling for some time, Cleopatra or Jacks are Wild are both good games.

$10 - $20 Games

Putting Wild 10s to the side, $200 Million still has seven $2 Million Grand Prizes to be claimed. Sales of this game are poor. The OLG (this is actually an inter-provincial game) are learning that we Canadians have trouble slapping down $20 for a ticket.

Comings and Goings

Each game available for sale has its own particular character. Double Cash for Life was introduced this week. It is a game that is rich on the top end with 4 Grand Prizes of $2000/week for life and at the bottom end where there are many prizes of $4, $6, $8, $10, and $12. The prize distribution for anything else is very poor. So if you're hoping to snag a middling prize, chances are that you will be disappointed. Here is the prize distribution. I have indicated the same percentage breakdown for last week's new game (20X Lucky) in parentheses.

Grand Prize - 14.7% (4.3%)
Prizes between $100 and the Grand Prize - .9% (2.4%)
Prizes Greater than Ticket Cost and <$100 - 40.4% (51.1%)
Prizes for the Cost of the Ticket - 9.8% (9.2%)
OLG Profit - 30.2% (33%)

You will note that the percentages do not tally up for Cash for Life. I suspect that there is an error on the detail sheet and that the OLG profit percentage should be higher. That number is higher the cheaper the game but this game is listed with a player return rate equivalent to $10 and $20 Games.

We say good bye this week to the venerable Bejeweled. This was the recommended game for several weeks this year. During that time I purchased 31 tickets, cashed 14 of them for a total of $300. Not bad. The OLG sold this game longer than it should have, according to their own policies, but I'm going to assume that they had a defensible reason for doing so.

Personal Play

Four Wild 10s tickets contained one winner for the grand total of $10. Grrrr. I guess it is better than being shut out, but not much better. I now stand at a cash rate of 38% and a total Return on Investment of 78%. I'm trending down and need a boost soon.

Happy Canada Day to all.

Doug

Wild 10s Continues Its Run on Top

Wild 10s sold over 5% of its float last week while surrendering 16 of its 150 - $10,000 Grand Prizes. Those results hurt the game's rating somewhat but it remains the recommended game. There are 87 Grand Prizes remaining to be claimed. Your chances to win one are 1 in 7,600. The second rated game is $200 Million. If you want a shot at a Grand Prize of $2 Million, then this is the game for you. There are 8 Grand Prizes left to be claimed. Your chances in that game are presently 1 in 1.5 million. Not sure if that is better or worse than being hit by lightning.

Best Overall Rated Games

1. Wild 10s
2. $200 Million
3. Pick 3
4. Classic White
5. Cleopatra

Games to Avoid

• QFG Crossword
• Tetris
• Cash for Life
• Bejeweled

QFG Crossword has no Grand Prizes nor Second Prizes left to claim. The same is true for Tetris. Bejeweled has none of the top three levels of prizes left. The most you can win in that game is $10,000 and there is only one of them left to claim. The OLG is hardly selling any tickets for Bejeweled and they are continuing to violate their own policy of cancelling games with Grand Prizes of $100,000 or more once all the Grand Prizes are claimed. On the other hand we mourn the demise of Instant Millions. I'm seeking information from the OLG on the decision-making process for that game.

$1 - $2 Game Update

Pick 3 continues to be a very good $1 Game. Lots of cashable tickets and 102 - $500 Grand Prizes left to win.

$3 Game Update

Texas Hold'Em is the best game in this category. Two - $75,000 Grand Prizes are left. Small wins are less frequent with this game than other $3 games but the 450,000:1 odds to win the Grand Prize makes the game a reasonable play.

$4 - $5 Game Update

I know that folks love the Cash for Life games. Sadly, both remaining grand prizes were claimed last week. Your "Cash for Life" now stands at a one time payment of $10,000. Not quite the same rush. It will be interesting to track this game. Fully 75% of its float remains to be sold and all the Grand Prizes have been claimed. So much for my conspiracy theory of how Grand Prize tickets are released! There are lots of other $5 games that one can choose from. The current top rated game is Cleopatra.

$10 - $20 Game Update

The top two games stand out. Classic White is moving up and may become a recommended game in time.

Comings and Goings

A new 20X Lucky Game was introduced this past week. I like the prize distribution for the game:

Grand Prizes - 4.3%
Prizes of $100 or more - 2.4%
Small Prizes - 51.1%
Prizes equal to cost of ticket - 9.2%
Profit - 33.0%

There are six Grand Prizes to be won and lots of action at the low end. The 51.1% is a high number for that category. You'll have lots of action and the chance to win a good Grand Prize of $100,000. I'm hoping that this game eventually becomes the recommended play.

Personal Play

Six Wild 10s contained two winners totaling $25. Poor. My cash rate has slipped to 38% and my return on investment stands at a low point of 80%. I need some luck.

Thanks to Shelley for her posts to the blog. She's had some recent success with Wild 10s. Here's hoping that  her luck continues this week.


Great weather for "scratching" outside.

Doug

Wild 10s Retains Top Billing

There was no movement in the top five rated games over the course of the past week. Each game surrendered some secondary prizes. Wild 10s and Pick 3 surrendered some of their respective Grand Prizes but there are many to be won in those games. Wild 10s has 103 of its $10,000 prizes left to claim whereas Pick 3 has 119 of its $500 Grand Prizes. Your chances to win one of Wild 10s Grand Prizes are presently 1 in 7,100, down from the 1 in 9000 when the game began. In Pick 3, you have 1 chance in 8,200, down from 1 chance in 8,300 - not much of a positive move.

Best Overall Rated Games

1. Wild 10s
2. $200 Million
3. Pick 3
4. Extravaganza
5. Cleopatra

Games to Avoid

• Quest For Gold Crossword #3201
• Tetris #1737
• Bejeweled #1724

Note that Bejeweled now only has 1 - $10,000 Top Prize left to claim. The OLG claims that any game with a $100,000 Grand Prize or higher will be canceled once all the "Top Prizes" have been won. Do they consider the one $10,000 prize left to be a "Top" Prize? There are almost 400,000 Bejeweled tickets left to be sold and the OLG continues to flog them. On the other hand, they canceled Instant Millions with 1.3 million tickets left and 2 - $1,000,000 Grand Prizes left to be claimed. A tad inconsistent, I'd say.

Top Selling Games Over the Past Week

1. Crossword #3200
2. Super Bingo #3012
3. Classic White #1749

Worst Selling Games Over the Past Week

1. Extravaganza #1709
2. More Lucky Lines #1733
3. Bejeweled #1724

Note: Extravaganza may be headed to cancellation territory but is also the 4th rated game.

Comings and Goings

No new games this week although Money Mult #1692 and Cross Tripler #1720 were retired. Each had a $100,000 Grand Prize left to be claimed. Money Mult had 15% of its tickets left to sell and Cross Tripler had 8%.

Here are the winning locations for the Grand Prizes for the two games retired last week:

Cash For Life #1160 - Almonte, North York, Wingham, Glouster, Scarborough, Windsor, Mississauga.
Cash In #1736 - Innisfil, Thunder Bay, Welland, Thorold, North York, Owen Sound.

I'm hoping that our Frank in Scarborough was the lucky winner!

Personal Play

Five Wild 10's tickets included two winners totaling $45. The cash rate is now just a hair below 40% and the total return on investment crept up to 84%.

Thanks to the readers who messaged me over the past week. I always enjoy reading what you have to say.


Have fun.

Doug

Wild 10s Holds on to Top Spot

After my little temper tantrum of last week, I'll try for a more conventional entry this week.

Wild 10s surrendered 10 of its 150 Grand Prizes of $10,000 last week while selling over 9% of its ticket float. The one downside to the game is that it is not the best among its class of $10-$20 tickets in terms of the likelihood to "Win Any Prize" or to "Win a Prize Greater than the Price of the Ticket". The game scores well on my rating system but don't be afraid to experiment with other games.

Best Rated Games

1. Wild 10s
2. $200 Million
3. Pick 3
4. Extravaganza
5. Cleopatra

Games to Avoid

• Tetris
• Bejeweled

$1 - $2 Game Analysis

Pick 3 is a high rated game due to the large number of small Grand Prizes. Your chances to win "Any Prize" or "Any Prize Greater than the Price of the Ticket" is the best among these games. If you want a $1-$2 game that has a better Grand Prize, try Bonus Banco #1641.

$3 Games

Bonus Keno #1413 is the best game in this group if you're looking for the best rate of cashing. The problem with the game is that only 2 of the original 8 Grand Prizes of $50,000 remain to be claimed and almost half of  the ticket float remains to be sold. Texas Hold'Em and More Lucky Lines are the best rated games in this price range. If you're buying a More Lucky Lines game, be sure to buy game #1733 and not #1734. The latter was introduced this week so I'm sure that sellers are featuring that version of the game more prominently.

$4-$5 Games

There are no bad games in this group. The best rated games are: Cleopatra, Cash for Life, and Poker Multiplier.

$10 - $20 Games

Apart from Wild 10s, $200 Million is a good game. Lots of prizes available and 8 of the original 12 $2Million Grand Prizes remain to be claimed although only 15% of the tickets have been sold to date. That's a problem. One reader has reported bad luck with the game while another has indicated that they are in positive territory after twelve tickets. Losing streaks are tough when the ticket costs $20.

Comings and Goings

CFL Blowout and Cash In were both retired this past week. Cash For Life Blowout had no Grand Prizes left and 20% of its ticket float outstanding. Cash In had 1- $100,000 Grand Prize left and 14% of its float.

Two new games were introduced: $3 More Lucky Lines #1734 and the Inter-provincial Lottery Corporation game Classic White #1749. Classic White is a jumbo affair with almost 8 million tickets of which 3.7 million are destined to Ontario. The game has 7 Grand Prizes of $500,000. The cash rate for "Any Prize Greater than the Cost of the Ticket" is poor at 1:6.57. This is the worst rating for $10-$20 games. Prize distribution is as follows: 4.4% Grand Prize(s), 5.1% Prizes down to $100, 45.3% prizes down to $15, 15.1% Prizes for the cost of the tickets, 30.1% profit.

More Lucky Lines is almost identical to the previous version of the game that remains on the market. The prize breakdown looks like: 2.4% Grand Prize(s); 2.6% prizes down to $100, 46.5% prizes down to $5, 13.5% prizes of the cost of the ticket, 35.0% profit.

Personal Play

Four Wild 10s tickets yielded two winners totaling $40. Not a bad start on this game. My cash rate YTD stays just a tad below 40% and the Return on Investment is 82%.

Sorry about the late posting this week. I hope that I didn't cause you too much frustration.


Doug