Wild 10s Retains Top Billing

There was no movement in the top five rated games over the course of the past week. Each game surrendered some secondary prizes. Wild 10s and Pick 3 surrendered some of their respective Grand Prizes but there are many to be won in those games. Wild 10s has 103 of its $10,000 prizes left to claim whereas Pick 3 has 119 of its $500 Grand Prizes. Your chances to win one of Wild 10s Grand Prizes are presently 1 in 7,100, down from the 1 in 9000 when the game began. In Pick 3, you have 1 chance in 8,200, down from 1 chance in 8,300 - not much of a positive move.

Best Overall Rated Games

1. Wild 10s
2. $200 Million
3. Pick 3
4. Extravaganza
5. Cleopatra

Games to Avoid

• Quest For Gold Crossword #3201
• Tetris #1737
• Bejeweled #1724

Note that Bejeweled now only has 1 - $10,000 Top Prize left to claim. The OLG claims that any game with a $100,000 Grand Prize or higher will be canceled once all the "Top Prizes" have been won. Do they consider the one $10,000 prize left to be a "Top" Prize? There are almost 400,000 Bejeweled tickets left to be sold and the OLG continues to flog them. On the other hand, they canceled Instant Millions with 1.3 million tickets left and 2 - $1,000,000 Grand Prizes left to be claimed. A tad inconsistent, I'd say.

Top Selling Games Over the Past Week

1. Crossword #3200
2. Super Bingo #3012
3. Classic White #1749

Worst Selling Games Over the Past Week

1. Extravaganza #1709
2. More Lucky Lines #1733
3. Bejeweled #1724

Note: Extravaganza may be headed to cancellation territory but is also the 4th rated game.

Comings and Goings

No new games this week although Money Mult #1692 and Cross Tripler #1720 were retired. Each had a $100,000 Grand Prize left to be claimed. Money Mult had 15% of its tickets left to sell and Cross Tripler had 8%.

Here are the winning locations for the Grand Prizes for the two games retired last week:

Cash For Life #1160 - Almonte, North York, Wingham, Glouster, Scarborough, Windsor, Mississauga.
Cash In #1736 - Innisfil, Thunder Bay, Welland, Thorold, North York, Owen Sound.

I'm hoping that our Frank in Scarborough was the lucky winner!

Personal Play

Five Wild 10's tickets included two winners totaling $45. The cash rate is now just a hair below 40% and the total return on investment crept up to 84%.

Thanks to the readers who messaged me over the past week. I always enjoy reading what you have to say.


Have fun.

Doug

Wild 10s Holds on to Top Spot

After my little temper tantrum of last week, I'll try for a more conventional entry this week.

Wild 10s surrendered 10 of its 150 Grand Prizes of $10,000 last week while selling over 9% of its ticket float. The one downside to the game is that it is not the best among its class of $10-$20 tickets in terms of the likelihood to "Win Any Prize" or to "Win a Prize Greater than the Price of the Ticket". The game scores well on my rating system but don't be afraid to experiment with other games.

Best Rated Games

1. Wild 10s
2. $200 Million
3. Pick 3
4. Extravaganza
5. Cleopatra

Games to Avoid

• Tetris
• Bejeweled

$1 - $2 Game Analysis

Pick 3 is a high rated game due to the large number of small Grand Prizes. Your chances to win "Any Prize" or "Any Prize Greater than the Price of the Ticket" is the best among these games. If you want a $1-$2 game that has a better Grand Prize, try Bonus Banco #1641.

$3 Games

Bonus Keno #1413 is the best game in this group if you're looking for the best rate of cashing. The problem with the game is that only 2 of the original 8 Grand Prizes of $50,000 remain to be claimed and almost half of  the ticket float remains to be sold. Texas Hold'Em and More Lucky Lines are the best rated games in this price range. If you're buying a More Lucky Lines game, be sure to buy game #1733 and not #1734. The latter was introduced this week so I'm sure that sellers are featuring that version of the game more prominently.

$4-$5 Games

There are no bad games in this group. The best rated games are: Cleopatra, Cash for Life, and Poker Multiplier.

$10 - $20 Games

Apart from Wild 10s, $200 Million is a good game. Lots of prizes available and 8 of the original 12 $2Million Grand Prizes remain to be claimed although only 15% of the tickets have been sold to date. That's a problem. One reader has reported bad luck with the game while another has indicated that they are in positive territory after twelve tickets. Losing streaks are tough when the ticket costs $20.

Comings and Goings

CFL Blowout and Cash In were both retired this past week. Cash For Life Blowout had no Grand Prizes left and 20% of its ticket float outstanding. Cash In had 1- $100,000 Grand Prize left and 14% of its float.

Two new games were introduced: $3 More Lucky Lines #1734 and the Inter-provincial Lottery Corporation game Classic White #1749. Classic White is a jumbo affair with almost 8 million tickets of which 3.7 million are destined to Ontario. The game has 7 Grand Prizes of $500,000. The cash rate for "Any Prize Greater than the Cost of the Ticket" is poor at 1:6.57. This is the worst rating for $10-$20 games. Prize distribution is as follows: 4.4% Grand Prize(s), 5.1% Prizes down to $100, 45.3% prizes down to $15, 15.1% Prizes for the cost of the tickets, 30.1% profit.

More Lucky Lines is almost identical to the previous version of the game that remains on the market. The prize breakdown looks like: 2.4% Grand Prize(s); 2.6% prizes down to $100, 46.5% prizes down to $5, 13.5% prizes of the cost of the ticket, 35.0% profit.

Personal Play

Four Wild 10s tickets yielded two winners totaling $40. Not a bad start on this game. My cash rate YTD stays just a tad below 40% and the Return on Investment is 82%.

Sorry about the late posting this week. I hope that I didn't cause you too much frustration.


Doug

Wild 10s Emerges as Top Choice After Instant Millions is Retired

The fears expressed last week about the fate of Instant Millions came true this week - the game has been retired. This decision by the OLG flies in the face of fairness towards the ticket buying public.

Lets look at some numbers. The game started prior to the beginning of 2013. There are six other games still in play that began in 2012. The initial ticket float was 3,643,500 tickets. If all the tickets were sold the OLG would generate $18,217,500 in revenue and a profit of $6,071,893. At the point of retirement I estimate the number of remaining tickets to be 1,300,000 or 36% of the initial float. All things being equal (they are not), retiring the game at this point would reduce the profit to $3,800,000. After selling almost two thirds of the tickets one would expect that two of the initial three $1 Million grand prizes would have been claimed. That was not the case as two of the Grand Prizes remained outstanding. It is for this reason that it was the recommended game. By retiring the game at this point, with the two prizes outstanding, the OLG effectively increased its profit for the game from $3,800,000 to $4,800,000, an increase of 26%. Do you feel that you have been treated fairly?

A call to the OLG call center this morning (they do a great job) resulted in my being told that the game was  canceled due to declining interest in the game. Declining interest? There were 1.3 million tickets left to be sold yet many retailers had no supply? How are they to sell tickets that are sitting in the OLG warehouse? This is a serious issue. Although I do not have an analogy that fits perfectly, imagine if someone ran a raffle, sold tickets, but decided not to give away the prizes. I suspect that there is a law that would deal with that type of situation. The OLG is in a position to make such decisions as they don't think that people are aware of how they manage the games nor does the ticket buying public care. Maybe they're right.

Of the 25 games that have been retired by the OLG in 2013, only three others had as many as 30% of their ticket float outstanding. Each one of those was a Christmas game (Snow Globe, Wonderful Life, Holiday Tripler). They were all retired at the end of February, once the Christmas season was well over. Lastly, this is not the first time the OLG has acted this way. Ontario Instant Millions #1573 was a game that ran during 2011. It was a game similar to the current Instant Millions. For that game, the OLG sold 2,026,608 tickets ($10,133,040) and paid out 389,769 prizes totaling $4,497,600. Guess how many of the three $1 million Grand Prizes were won? None! That's right - the OLG ran a raffle and failed to award even a single Grand Prize. The above information was provided as a result of a Freedom of Information request.

I would be interested to hear from readers what sort of changes they would propose to the OLG to correct this situation. Before one complains one has to have a solution to propose.

As for our new game, Wild 10s is a $10 game that began with 150 - $10,000 Grand Prizes. One hundred and twenty-two remain to be claimed after selling 31% of the tickets. Your chances of winning a $10,000 prize has dropped from 1 in 9007 to 1 in 7,600 at this point in time. The game is not the best of games in terms of your pure chances to win any prize and to win a prize greater than the cost of the ticket. The Grand Prize is $10,000 is also small for a $10 game. If it's the big reward you're after, the $200 Million game is second rated and there are nine $2 Million prizes out there to be claimed. That's if you have the stomach to spend $20 on an Instant Ticket.

Best Overall Rated Games

1. Wild 10s
2. $200 Million
3. Pick 3
4. Extravaganza
5. Texas Hold'em

Best Games to Win the Grand Prize

• $1 - $2 Games - Pick 3
• $3 Games - Texas Hold'Em
• $4 - $5 Games - Cleopatra
• $10 - $20 Games - Wild 10s

Note:
Readers may notice that the more expensive games tend to be the best rated games. This is generally true as the OLG takes a smaller percentage cut from those games and they tend towards larger Grand Prizes. Any game appearing on the above lists would represent a good decision for the player. The point of this blog is to guide players away from bad choices such as listed below.

Games to Avoid

• Tetris
• CFL Blowout
• Bejeweled

Comings and Goings

Three games were retired this week. The aforementioned Instant Millions, Scrabble #1730, and Mahjong #1731. The Scrabble game had 6% of its float left and one Grand Prize Outstanding of $75,000. Mahjong had 17% of its float and one Grand Prize of $80,000. Mahjong had two Grand Prize winners. They hailed from North York and Oshawa.

$100,000 Poker Multiplier was introduced this week. It is a $5 game. The prize distribution is as follows, in terms of percentage of total sales revenue:

• Grand Prizes (6) - 4.7%
• Prizes of $1000 or more and less than the Grand Prize - 2.1%
• Prizes of $100 or more and less than $1000 - 1.8%
• Prizes greater than the ticket cost and less than $100 - 49.0%
• Prizes of the cost of the ticket - 9.3%
• Profit - 33.1%

The game rates well on the rating system and may become playable in time.

Personal Play

Strange, but after railing against the retirement of Instant Millions, it's not my favourite game. Seven tickets this week returned two "winners" each of $5. My cash rate is now down to 38% and my total return on investment has dipped to 81%.

My thanks to the folks who have messaged me lately about the blog. I enjoy hearing from you.

I need some luck.


Doug

Instant Millions #1683 Solidifies Its Position

Our old friend Bejeweled has gone from the penthouse to the outhouse in two short weeks. May 14th was a remarkable day for the game as 3 of the Top Prizes were claimed on the same day. Lucky winners in Oshawa, Bobcaygean, and Concord took away the loot. The last top prize was claimed this past week. The game has now become one to avoid as no top prizes remain and fully one quarter of the tickets remain to be sold. That equates to 400,000 tickets. What's worse is that all of the secondary prizes of $100,000 and $50,000 have also been claimed. As of today, one $10,000 prize remains. Lets see if the OLG moves to retire this moribund game.

Our recommended game is also teetering as both the second prizes of $100,000 have been claimed. I'm not crazy about this game as it is poor when it comes to minor prizes. Only one in every 7.45 tickets is worth more than the price of the ticket. It gets the nod due to those two juicy $1,000,000 prizes that remain to be claimed. You have one chance in 660,000 to snag one.

Best Overall Rated Games

1. Instant Millions
2. Scrabble #1730
3. Wild 10s
4. $200 Million
5. Pick 3

Best Games to Win the Top Prize

$1 - $2 Games - Pick 3 ($500)
$3 Games - Scrabble ($75,000)
$4 - $5 Games - Instant Millions ($1,000,000)
$10 - $20 Games - Wild 10s ($10,000)

Best Games With Pure Odds to Win Top Prize

$1 - $2 Games - Pick 3 - 8,400:1
$3 Games - Scrabble - 175,000:1
$4 - $5 Games - Cleopatra - 345,000:1
$10 - $20 Games - Wild 10s - 7,800:1

Games to Avoid

• Tetris
• Cash For Life Blowout
• Bejeweled

My interest in Instant Games was sparked by a previous version of Instant Millions that was retired with prizes remaining outstanding. I wrote to the OLG at that time asking what criteria was used to make the decision to retire a game. The thorough response I received listed five criteria:

1. Inventory for a game is completely sold out.
2. All top prizes are claimed for games with $100,000 or greater top prize.
3. Average weekly sales reflect significantly decreased customer demand and a new replacement game is scheduled to be launched or has launched.
4. Quality issue with game in market.
5. Security issue with game in market.

Number three is the key item. The sales of Instant Millions have been lagging of late and I find it odd that the tickets are becoming difficult to find. Some retailers have told me that they were asked to return unsold Instant Millions tickets to the OLG. This sort of information has proven to be very faulty in the past so I'm not convinced as I was able to find tickets in Toronto. More than 1.3 million tickets in this game remain to be sold. Retailers can't sell tickets that they are not provided with. Those 1.3 million tickets represent $6.5 million of revenue to the OLG but, and this is a big but, within those tickets are 2 - $1 million winners. It may be more profitable to the OLG to retire the game now rather than let those two winners be discovered.

It is this sort of potential conflict of interest that concerns me. Under the OLG Modernization Plan, Instant Ticket games will be privatized. I'm not sure how that would be different than it is today as contractors already make the tickets and sell them. The OLG is, however, accountable for how the games are managed. Will this remain the case under privatization? I'm not sure.

Comings and Goings

Two new games were introduced this past week. Neither $1 Wild 8s Doubler nor $2 Cherry Jubilee is particularly exciting at this point. Wild 8s provides 2.0% of total game revenue to the grand prize winners (6), has no prizes of more than $200 other than the top prizes, and provides 44.4% of total revenue to winners of more than the cost of the ticket and less than $100. By comparison, Cherry Jubliee provides 2.4% of revenue to the four top prize winners, 1.8% of revenue to winners of $1000 or more (excluding the top prizes), and 1.0% of revenue to winners of at least $100 and less than $1000. The same 44.3% of revenue goes to little winners and 11.5% goes to the dreaded "I won my Money Back" prizes. That figure rises to 12.5% for Wild 8s Doubler.

One should expect a better deal for a $2 ticket versus a $1 ticket and that is the case here.

Personal Play

My nervousness over the potential retirement of the top game caused me to go a little strong this past week. Ten Instant Million tickets included 3 winners totaling $35. My year to date cash rate has now dipped to 39% and my total return on investment to 84%. I need a $100 winning ticket to give my results a boost.

I can't conclude this week's post without mentioning the departure of Mr. Godfrey from the OLG. Premier Wynne has a vision as it relates to the OLG that differs from that of Mr. Godfrey, and by extention, Mr.'s McGuinty and Duncan. Instant Games represent a small part of the OLG mandate. The OLG Modernization Plan projects an additional profit of $180 million per year through privatization of lotteries, creating on-line ticket sales of games such as Lotto 649 and making Instant Games ubiquitous in our society.

Many of these ideas cause me concern and it appears that the same is true for the Premier. Foremost among my concerns is accountability. The OLG is a public institution and falls under all prevailing laws dealing with openness and public accountability. They measure up to those stringent standards, in my experience. If that virtue is put into question in a privatized environment, then count me out.


Here's hoping that a reader of this blog snags a big one this week.


Doug

Instant Millions Takes Top Spot

Bejeweled's run has come to an end. Three of the remaining four Top Prizes were claimed last week leaving only one prize outstanding. The claims must have been recent as the OLG has yet to publish where the winners were located. I will update that information on next week's posting. With Bejeweled out of the way, Instant Millions takes over as the clear choice. This is a top heavy game with 2 - $ Million prizes left to be claimed and lots of $5 minimum prize tickets (you win what you paid for the ticket) You presently have one chance in 670,000 to win the Top Prize. I have not had much luck with previous incarnations of this game. I bought two tickets a few weeks ago and came up empty on both. The good news is that I don't have to shell out $10 for tickets for the time being. A little luck would not go unappreciated.

 

Best Games to Win the Top Prize

$1 - $2 Games - Pick 3 ($500)
$3 Games - Scrabble ($75,000)
$4 - $5 Games - Instant Millions ($1,000,000)
$10 - $20 Games - Wild 10s ($10,000)

Best Games to Win Any Prize

$1 - $2 Games - Pick 3, 3.13:1
$3 Games - Bonus Keno, 1.86:1
$4 - $5 Games - Cross Tripler, 3.14:1
$10 - $20 Games - $200 Million, 3.00:1

Best Overall Rated Games

1. Instant Millions
2. Scrabble #1730
3. Wild 10s
4. $200 Million
5. Extravaganza 

Games to Avoid

• Tetris
• Cash For Life Blowout

Both of these games have over 20% of their tickets left to sell. The OLG will continue to flog them for some time. Be alert and avoid them.

Comings and Goings

A new version of the staple game Crossword hit the market this week. This is a jumbo game with over 20 million tickets to be distributed. Players love the game and players must be given what they want, no? The $50,000 Top Prize is normal for $3 games. There are lots of smaller prizes, 16 Top Prizes, and not much in the middle. As with all games, you can't get everything in one place. Here is the prize breakdown as a percentage of total revenue:

$50,000 Top Prize -  1.3%
Prizes of $1000 and greater (not including Top Prize) - 1.1%
Prizes of $100 - $999 - 1.5%
Prizes more than $3 and less than $100 - 48.1%
Prizes of the cost of the ticket - 12.9%
Profit - 35.0%

Readers have asked me if I have ever won a lot of money on Instant tickets. The answer is no. You can see why when looking at the prize breakdown for this game. The game does afford the player with lots of small winners and this is one of the reasons why we play these games. If you want an "All or Nothing" game, stick to Lotto Max.

Personal Play

I stuck to my principles and bought two Bejeweled tickets last week. Given that three Top Prizes were revealed during the week, I should have bought more! I had one winner worth $15. My overall cash rate in 2013 now stands at 40% and my total Return on Investment is 85%.

This week I'm switching to Instant Millions with the hope of winning a big one.

A $2 Million ticket was claimed in Brampton this past week and a $1 Million ticket was claimed in Scarborough. Compensation for the Maple Leafs, I suppose.

Good Luck.

Doug

Bejeweled Returns to Top Spot

Neither Bejeweled nor Instant Millions lost a top prize this past week but Bejeweled strengthened its position as the recommended game by selling more tickets. You presently have one chance in 120,000 to win one of the four $250,000 top prizes left to claim. Instant Millions continues as the strong second choice. You have one chance in 700,000 to win one of the two $1 Million top prizes. Bejeweled is a better play for smaller prizes with one in every 5.13 tickets being worth more than the $10 cost of the ticket. Instant Millions has a poor rating in this area of one in every 7.45 tickets. Just under 30% of the Bejeweled ticket float remains to be claimed which means that you should not have any trouble finding tickets.



Best Games to Win the Top Prize
$1 - $2 Games - Pick 3
$3 Games - Scrabble #1730
$4 - $5 Games - Instant Millions
$10 - $20 Games - Bejeweled

Best Games to Win a Prize Greater than the Cost of the Ticket
$1 - $2 Games - Pick 3
$3 Games - Bonus Keno
$4 - $5 Games - Cross Tripler #1743
$10 - $20 Games - $200 Million

Best Overall Rated Games

1. Bejeweled
2. Instant Millions
3. Scrabble
4. Wild 10s
5. $200 Million

Games to Avoid

• Tetris
• CFL Blowout

Comings and Goings

Two new games were introduced over the course of the past week. Each one is quite different from the other. $10 Wild 10s is a game like Pick 3 and Fast 100 where the idea is to provide a greater number of smaller Top Prizes. This is the first time I have seen this approach used in a $10 game. The Top Prize is only $10,000 for your $10 investment however there are 150 top prizes to be won. The game then scrimps on secondary large prizes by offering only 30 - $1000 prizes and 135 - $500 prizes. In total, 97.6% of the prizes of $1000 or more are awarded to the Top Prize winners and 16.5% of the total prize pool is reserved for winners of $1000 or more, which is a high rating. What are you giving up? The prospect of a large prize.

The other new game is $3 Texas Hold'em Poker. I expect this game to be popular given its premise, much like Tetris has proven to be. This game has a more standard breakdown of prizes with 66% of the total prize money for prizes of $1000 or more going to the three Top Prize winners of $75,000 each. The prizes distributed to the winners of $1000 or more prizes represents 6.7% of the total prize payouts. In other words, it is a more democratic game and I rate it as the third best $3 game to play behind Super Bingo and Mahjong, at this point in time.

Personal Play

I am unable to explain why I fail to follow what I have learned to be the only way for me to play. Every time I deviate from the plan it results in punishment. This past week I bought 4 Bejeweled tickets with the result of one $10 winner - a loss of $30. Instead of taking my punishment and moving on I purchased a fifth ticket while out of town. It was a loser. I then bought a $5 ticket in another game - you guessed it...loser! I need to stick to what I know works best for me. Others have differing approaches and if it works for you, great. My cash rate is now down to 40% and my total return on investment has dipped to 85%.

The punishment for my lack of discipline is to cut back to two tickets this week. I know that if I acknowledge my sins and apply my own corrective action, that lady luck will forgive me.

Here is a link to a story that recently ran in the Toronto Star http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2011/02/04/toronto_man_cracked_the_code_to_scratchlottery_tickets.html?app=noRedirect
The problem was inherent with the Scrabble and Crossword games. In those games you can see the numbers or letters and you scratch them when they match the numbers or letters on the top. The tickets are made by contractors and they follow some sort of algorithm in their production. As you can see, there was a flaw in the program. Good on the OLG for acting quickly but it just goes to show you that we should not take everything we are told as the gospel truth.

Happy Scratching.

Doug

Bejeweled and Instant Millions Vie for Top Spot

Neither game surrendered a Top Prize this past week. Bejeweled sold just over three percent of its tickets over the course of the week - 35% of the float remains. Your chances to win one of the four remaining $250,000 Top Prizes are 1:133,000. Instant Millions kept its 2 - $2 million Top Prizes in play with 39% of its tickets left to be sold. Your chances are 1:710,000 to win $1 million for a $5 investment - not bad. Remember that you can't get everything in one game. Although Instant Millions offers a better proposition for a big jackpot, only one ticket in every 7.45 sold has a prize larger than the $5 cost of the ticket. Bejeweled rewards its players with one chance in 5.13 to get a ticket worth more than its $10 cost. It comes down to personal preference - either game is a good choice.

For players who are turned off by the ticket price of the recommended games, Scrabble #1730 is a well rated game for its $3 cost. Those tickets will be hard to find as less than 10% of the float remains to be sold. Keep your eye open for them.


 

Best Games To Win a Top Prize
$1 - $2 Games - Pick 3
$3 Games - Scrabble #1730
$4 - $5 Games - Instant Millions
$10 - $20 Games - Bejeweled

Best Games to Win more than the cost of the ticket
$1 - $2 Games - Pick 3
$3 Games - Bonus Keno #1413
$4 - $5 Games - Cross Tripler #1743
$10 - $20 Games - $200 Million

Best Overall Rated Games

1. Bejeweled
2. Instant Millions
3. Cash For Life Blowout
4. Scrabble #1730
5. $200 Million

Games to Avoid

• Tetris #1737

Tetris revealed its last Top Prize winner this past week. It has also revealed both of its second prizes. The most anyone can now win is $1,112 for your $3 investment. The problem for the OLG is that over 40% of its tickets remain to be sold. They will no doubt continue to sell these tickets to unsuspecting players. Readers of this blog know better!

Comings and Goings

$1 Bingo Express was retired this week. One of its $10,000 prizes was left and just under 20% of its tickets were left to be sold. Ticket sales had ground to a trickle which is likely why OLG pulled the plug.

Personal Play

I went back to my old system and bought 4-Bejeweled tickets from the same supplier. Two were winners returning $60. I have cashed 50% of the Bejeweled that I have bought and am up 15% on the game. Overall, I stand at 41% cashes and am down 9% of total funds invested so far this year.

Norm in Mississauga reports that his luck in Bejeweled started poorly and has remained there. I hope that he's at least lucky in love.

Great weather today - make a point of scratching your tickets outside.


Doug