Fruit Explosion #1803 Remains the Lame Duck Choice

OLG Retailers were instructed to return unsold tickets for Fruit Explosion near the beginning of October. The game remains on the outstanding prize list and remains the top choice if you are lucky enough to find any. Once it is retired, the time for playing $3 games will be gone as there is no heir apparent from this group of games. There remains one Grand Prize and an estimated 210,000 unsold tickets. $0.119 of every dollar spent on the game at this point will be returned to the Grand Prize winner, if the Grand Prize is ever claimed. That is the second highest such figure at present and that is unusual for a $3 game. Your chances to win the Grand Prize are significantly better than the second such rated game (356,000:1 for Cash In). I have excluded Wild 10's from this comparison with its high number of low value Grand Prizes.


 

Top Rated Games

1. $3 Fruit Explosion #1803 - 8% of float remains; tickets should be as rare as hen's teeth.
2. $4 Bonus Cash For Life #1168 - half the float has been sold and all 5 of those large Grand Prizes remain outstanding.
3. $10 Fortune #1779 - Inter-Provincial game. 10% of float sold - all 12 $Million prizes remain.
4. $10 Wild 10's #1785 - Hard to get an imbalance of unclaimed Grand Prizes with so many of them available. Still, a good game.
5. $4 Cash For Life #1161 - 2nd, 3rd, and 4th prizes all claimed. Not recommended.

Games to Avoid

1. $3 Crossword #3205 - All of the top 4 prize categories have been claimed. The most you can win is $100. Can you spell D-O-G?
2. $3 Scrabble #1799 - All of the top 4 Prize categories have been claimed. Why is the OLG flogging these games whilst retiring games with outstanding Grand Prizes?
3. $2 Crazy 8's #1765 - Horrible game. 600,000 tickets left to flog.
4. $3 More Lucky Lines #1794 - Devoid of Grand Prizes, and we dislike the name! Only 2,000,000 tickets left to sell to unsuspecting buyers.
5. $1 Lucky Lines #1770 - A stinker right from the day it was introduced.

$1 - $2 Game Update

$2 Cash For Life or $1 Cash Cow are the best choices.

$3 Game Update

Slim pickens once you get beyond Fruit Explosion.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Bonus Cash For Life stands out.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Fortune and Wild 10's are the best two but Cadillac and Extraordinary are both reasonable choices.

Comings and Goings

I prematurely indicated that Jacks Are Wild had been retired. It had disappeared from the outstanding prize list when I completed last week's update and now it's back. I called the OLG and they confirmed that the game remains active. Retired this past week were Win Take All and Cross Tripler #1766. Both games had Grand Prizes of $100,000 and all those Grand Prizes had been claimed. Thus, they were due for retirement as per OLG policy. Also retired was Cashingo. This is sad as it was the second top rated game for several weeks (based upon my formula) and I never had the opportunity to buy a single ticket.  
Newly released is a $2 Cash For Life game and a large Super Bingo game. There is also a new Keno game (#1415) but the game sheet has yet to be posted on the OLG site.

The $2 Cash For Life is a welcome addition to the $1 - $2 group of games. It is top heavy, as CL66 has pointed out, and it has a ticket float over twice the size of the other games in this group. The value of the Grand Prize is $67,500 (or, $100 per week for life), and its overall return rate to players is 63.79% which is 4% higher than any other game in the group. Here is the prize breakdown:

Win your $2 back - 10.0% of revenue (best in group)
Win >$2 <$100 - 48.9% (best in group)
Win $100 and < Grand Prize - .6% (3rd of 6 in group)
Win Grand Prize (10 available) - 4.3% (best in group)
Profit for OLG - 36.21% ($3,339,515)

I expect this game to be the best in its group throughout its life cycle.


Super Bingo #3017 has a large ticket float of over 10 million tickets. Its 10 Grand Prizes of $50,000 does not excite me but it is a good churn game as there are lots of smaller prizes:

Win your $3 back - 12.8% of revenue (4th of 9 in group)
Win >$3 <$100 - 50.8% of revenue (best in group)
Win $100 and < Grand Prize - 1.7% of revenue (worst in group)
Win Grand Prize (10 available) - 1.6% of revenue (7th of 9 in group)
Profit for OLG - 33.04% ($5,564,402)

Your chances to win a prize greater than the cost of the ticket is one in every 5.58 tickets and that is second best in the group.

Personal Play

Darth and I like the Bonus Cash For Life game and CL66 does not (see readers comments for previous postings). I wish that my personal experience could weigh in my favour but it does not. Eight tickets contained two winners totaling $16.  Overall, I am 3 for 22 in this game with an ROI of 23%. Not good. If I can't find any Fruit Explosion this week I think that I'll try Fortune.

In Conclusion

I called the OLG and had an interesting chat with Joel. If I have any complaint with the OLG it is certainly not with their Call Center staff. The Call Center is located in Sault Ste Marie which I expect means that they are able to attract top quality staff who stay in their positions for long periods of time as a steady government job is one worth having if you live in the north. They do a great job.

Joel informed me that when the OLG orders the end of a game the sellers are to return any unsold packages PLUS any stragglers that may be in the tray. Of course, those stragglers have been activated and the OLG is not to know when those stragglers were actually sold. Thus, sellers may or may not comply with that requirement. Further, as was pointed out in last weeks comments, sellers can wait a long time to have their accounts credited with the returns of stragglers. I can understand why that seller would prefer to simply sell the few extras that they may have on hand.

I also learned from Joel that when new games are brought on line the OLG decides what quantity to send to sellers. Thereafter, the seller can order the games he/she wants by contacting their local distributor. As such, lobbying your local seller to get the games we know are the best to play is a strategy that may be worthwhile.

Happy Halloween to all your witches and warlocks out there.


Doug

Fruit Explosion #1803 Remains On Top As Ticket Supply Dwindles

Thirty-one of the Top Prizes for Fruit Explosion were claimed this past week but not the sole remaining Grand Prize of $75,000. Two second prizes and one third prize also remain outstanding but the estimated size of the ticket float left is only 9%, +/- 2%. Posters have informed us all that the OLG has instructed retailers not to activate any new packages of tickets. I won't belabor the point but that took place some time ago so there are likely very few of these tickets left to be found. I would like to know with certainty how the print runs are ordered. It makes no sense to me that the OLG would be sitting on 200,000 printed and paid for tickets in the warehouse that they then have to destroy. It seems more likely that the print runs come in tranches of 10%. If that is the case, then the fuel gauge is already below empty. Sadly, the second rated game is Cashingo and it is in much the same status as Fruit Explosion. One final warning - if you are buying either of these games make sure that you check with the retailer before you do. There is only one Grand Prize remaining for each game.



    

Top Rated Games

1. $3 Fruit Explosion #1803 - On life support.
2. $3 Cashingo #1801 - OLG only lists top prizes down to $500 for this game. 
3. $4 Bonus Cash For Life #1168 - All five Grand Prizes remain with almost half the float sold. 
4. $10 Fortune #1779 - Jumbo Inter-Provincial game. All Grand Prizes remain after first 10%.
5. $4 Cash For Life #1161 - Best chance to win more than ticket cost in its group. Only 1 GP left.

Games to Avoid

As of today, the OLG is selling tickets for six games for which there are no Grand Prizes left to claim. As we watch what happened to More Lucky Lines and we face the imminent retirement of the two top rated games, they have no problem flogging these other games. In no particular order, they are: Crazy 8's, Crossword 3205, More Lucky Lines 1794, Scrabble 1799, Cross Tripler 1766, and Win Take All 1800.

$1 - $2 Game Update

Cash Cow and Royal 7's are both good choices.

$3 Game Update

Group contains the top two choices plus three of the games devoid of Grand Prizes. Be wise.

$4-$5 Game Update

Avoid the two games devoid of Grand Prizes. All the others are reasonable.

$10 - $20 Game Update

All the choices are reasonable - Fortune is the slight preference.

Comings and Goings

Jacks are Wild was retired with 1 of its 7 Grand Prizes left and 27% of its float left to sell. That represents an estimated 700,000 tickets. Were they just sitting in the warehouse? Hardly.

Wild 8's was introduced. It's not a bad $1 game. Six Grand Prizes available of $10,000, a sprinkling of other Top Prizes, and a somewhat high number of tickets where you win back your $1. Prize breakdown is as follows:

1.9 % of revenue to Grand Prizes - 2nd of 5 in group.
.2% of  revenue to prizes > $100 and less than Grand Prize - 4th of 5 in group
45.3% of revenue to prizes > $1 and < $100 - 3rd of 5 in group
12.5% of revenue to prizes of $1 - 2nd of 5 in group
40.1% of revenue to OLG

Float = 3,150,000

Personal Play

I managed to scoop up Fruit Explosion tickets this week. Nineteen tickets returned $51. My overall ROI bumps up to 62% YTD.

In Conclusion

While in England I purchased a 2 pound Instant Game. The link to the game is here:
https://www.national-lottery.co.uk/games/instant-wins/250000-red .

The tickets are sold in retailers in rolls such as what is available south of the border. But, one can also establish an account with the British Lottery folks and then purchase your ticket on-line. You then scratch the ticket "virtually". Without doing a full work-up I note that the chances to win a Grand Prize of $250,000 pounds is just under 5 million to one. There are 8 Grand Prizes available. That means the ticket float for the game is a massive 40 million tickets! Wow!

I am unable to find an "Outstanding Top Prize" list and I wonder how that would work given that some tickets are hard copy and some are virtual. Take note as this is direction the OLG is headed. Robert Benzie updated the status in this article: http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2014/10/11/three_bidders_vying_for_ontarios_prized_33b_lotto.html

When the Lotto function is privatized one of the consequences will be less transparency as successful bidder will be a private company and therefore exempt from Freedom of Information laws.

Good Luck.

Doug

Fruit Explosion #1803 Stays on Top - Get em Quick

Fruit Explosion remains the top selection with one of its three Grand Prizes of $75,000 left to claim, two of its three second prizes of $25,000 and one of its three third prizes of $10,000. Your chances to win the top prize are 260,000:1 which is the best of any game with the exception of Wild 10's and its plentiful but small Grand Prizes. Your chances to win any prize are 1:3.27 and your chances to win any prize greater than the cost of the ticket are 1:5.87. Altogether, a good choice. Now the bad news - a blog commentator has informed us that retailers have been instructed not to open any new packages for the game. That means that you will have to be on the lookout for the game.

Only an estimated 10% of the float remains and it looks like once again we may not get the chance to get the last remaining prize. Readers have been quite vocal about this concern in the comments section, and I agree with what they have been saying. For anyone who is traveling the 401, I stopped in at several Canadian Tire gas bars along the way and they all seemed to have Fruit Explosions left. I picked a few up and would have purchased more had I known about the pending retirement of the game.

Top Rated Games

1. $3 Fruit Explosion #1803- Get em while you can.
2. $3 Cashingo #1801 - One Grand Prize and one Second Prize left and only 13% of the float. 
3. $4 Bonus Cash For Life #1168 - All five Grand Prizes left after 44% of float sold Odds are 1.1 million:1 to win $675,000 for a $4 ticket. Not bad. 
4. $3 Crossword #3205 - The secondary prizes have been hollowed out. If you don't get the remaining Grand Prize, the next best prize is $100.
5. $1 Cash Cow #1805 - Three of the Five Grand Prizes of $10,000 remain and 31% of the float. Second prize is only $200.

Games to Avoid

1. Cross Tripler #1766 - All of the top three prize levels are gone. The most you can win is $300. Cancel this game OLG!
2. Win Take All #1800 - All seven Grand Prizes are gone. Stay away.
3. Crazy 8's #1765 - Blog commentators love to hate this game. The numbers agree with them.
4. More Lucky Lines #1794 - Launched last week and sinks to the bottom. Two of its three Grand Prizes were claimed in the first week. Something is rotten in the state of Denmark.
5. Bingo #3015 - Lots of tickets - few good prizes. How about 1 chance in 1.9 million to win $50k for your $3 investment. Horrible. 

$1 - $2 Game Update

Either Cash Cow or Royal 7's are good choices.

$3 Game Update

Avoid Bingo, More Lucky Lines, and Scrabble.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Avoid Cross Tripler #1791, Win Take All, and Jacks are Wild.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Fortune is the best play but any game is playable.

Comings and Goings

Hello new More Lucky Lines! We still had the bitter taste of the old version of the game in our mouths when the brain trust at OLG headquarters rolled out the new version. After the old version went to its grave with all of its Grand Prizes intact, this version coughed up two of its Grand Prizes in its first week. Come on! I guess the good news is that this game is unlikely to ever become a recommended play.

For the record, here is the prize distribution:

Grand Prizes - 2.3% of revenue (5th of 9 in Group)
Other Top Prizes - 2.6% of revenue (4th of 9 in Group)
Smaller Prizes - 46.5% of revenue (6th of 9 in Group)
Win your $3 back - 13.5% of revenue (2nd highest of nine in Group and that is not a good thing)

Bottom Line: at present, your chances of winning $75,000 for your $3 investment are one in 2.9 million the worst of any game currently for sale.

Personal Play

I have been taking a beating. Two Bonus CFLs were worth nothing. I am, at present, 1 for 14 and a return of $4 on this game. Two Black Pearls bought just to be different returned nothing and six Fruit Explosions returned nothing. That's right - shut out! My Year To Date return is now 60%. The bloom is off the rose.

 Meanderings

I thank all the posters for keeping us up to date on game cancellations, reporting on phone conversations at the OLG call center, and on individual results. I enjoy reading them.

I would like to clarify one point with readers: OLG policy is to cancel games that are devoid of Grand Prizes only if the Grand Prize is less than $100,000. Why? They have learned from surveying their players that those who buy $1 - $3 tickets care not if there are any prizes left whatsoever. Only people spending $5 and more care about such trivial matters. Do you agree?

I wrote to the OLG four years ago and asked them to state their criteria to cancel a game. Here is what I was told, in writing, by their Acting CEO in October 2010:

1. Inventory for a game is completely sold out.
2. All top prizes are claimed for games with $100,000 or greater top prize.
3. Average weekly sales reflect significantly decreased customer demand and a new replacement game is scheduled to be launched or has launched.
4. Quality issue with game in market.
5. Security issue with game in market. 

It strikes me that reasons 1,2,4,5 are all objective and 3 is subjective and can justify almost any decision on their behalf. Average weekly sales are a function of many factors other than popularity with the public. How about simply canceling print runs and not sending out additional tickets to retailers. That would certainly create the appearance of "decreased customer demand".

For anyone who wishes to see my original letter and the OLG response, drop me a line and I will send you a link to the documents.

I hope you all had an enjoyable Thanksgiving.


Doug
  

Scrabble Loses Its Last Grand Prize - Fruit Explosion #1803 New Top Choice

I was on my way home from playing tennis this past week when I stopped off at a store I never frequent to pick up some milk. And what to my wondering eyes did appear but six shiny Scrabble tickets. I scooped them up, charged home, only to find that they contained one lonely winner of $5. To make matters worse, the final Grand Prize was claimed the next day at a store a mere two kilometers from where I live. I guess I need to find new tennis courts to play on.

The loss of Scrabble brings Fruit Explosion to the top of the rankings. This is a game with one Grand Prize left to claim plus some outstanding secondary prizes. Only 12% of the float remains to be claimed (+/- 2%) , which means that they are likely hard to find. Your chance to find that last ticket is 310,000:1. It pays to ask the retailer before you buy if that prize remains outstanding. Your chances to win any prize in this game is 1 in every 3.62 tickets and to win a prize greater than the $3 cost of the ticket are 1 in every 6.81 tickets. These are average. The one good thing about the game is that it is relatively rich in prizes of $100 or more but less than the Grand Prize. The game offers 4.4% of total revenue in this area and that is best for any $3 game and fourth overall trailing only Cadillac Riches, Win Take All, and Jacks Are Wild.

    

Top Rated Games

1. $3 Fruit Explosion #1803 - Only 12% of float left. Tickets may be scarce.
2. $3 Cashingo #1801 - Good second choice; only 14% of float left. 
3. $4 Bonus CFL #1168 - People having worse luck with this game than expected - including me!
4. $10 Fortune #1779 - Unusually low number of prizes worth the cost of the ticket. 
5. $3 Crossword #3205 - Quirky result. I would recommend avoiding this game. 

Games to Avoid

1. $3 Scrabble #1799 - Penthouse to outhouse. Only two prizes of more than $300 left. 
2. $2 Crazy 8's #1765 - Not terrible but all six Grand Prizes are gone. Avoid. 
3. $5 Win Take All #1800 - This game should be retired but 20% of float remains. Watching.
4. $5 Jacks Are Wild #1787 - Only one of seven Grand Prizes remain and 40% of float. 
5. $1 Lucky Lines #1770 - Stinky game but what can one expect for a $1 game?

$1 - $2 Game Update

Cash Cow and Royal 7's are each reasonable choices.

$3 Game Update

Three of the top five games are in this group. Not long ago there were none. The only poor choice is Scrabble.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Either Cash For Life is a reasonable choice but posters have reported awful results for these games. I have experienced poor results as well. Next best is Black Pearls.

$10 - $20 Game Update

You can play any of the games.

Comings and Goings

Prestige was retired this past week. This was an Inter-provincial game that had been on sale for fourteen months. That is a long time for a scratch game. They still had 23% of the float left to sell and 3 of the 12 Grand Prizes of $1 million left to be revealed. Can't find fault with the decision but it shows again how $10 games are a little rich for most players.

Cash In #1807 was launched this week. It is a fairly typical $5 game. Your chance to win a prize is 1 in every 4.13 tickets (7th of 8 in group) and 1 in every 7.42 to win more than $5 (5th of 8 in group). The game does offer a good array of prizes from $100 up, as you would expect with the numbers cited in the previous sentence. One problem is that one of the seven Grand Prizes has already been claimed. We'll have to wait to see if this game works its way onto my radar.

Prize Breakdown: 10.7% To Winners of Cost of Ticket; 47.9% to winners of more than cost of ticket and less than $100; 2.8% to winners of $100 and less than Grand Prize; 5.4% to Grand Prize winners.

Personal Play

Eight Bonus Cash For Life's contained one winner of $4 and six Scrabble's contained one winner of $5. My poor results have reduced my YTD return to 63% per dollar "invested". Time to get something going.

In Conclusion

To the poster who inquired about how the remaining float size is calculated, the formula is:

Initial Float (from game sheet on OLG site) X (Total Top Prizes Remaining Listed on Web Site/Total Top Prizes at outset of game as listed on the OLG Web Site).

You must remember that because we are estimating based upon a sample, the sample size contains a margin of error. A game with 10,000 listed top prizes will have a margin of error of +/- 1%, 19 times in 20. A game with 125 listed prizes would have a margin of error of +/- 8%, 19 times in 20.

I have put into use a new evaluation formula beginning this week. The formula is the product of three factors:

1. A weighted sum of prizes: 1 x % of revenue paid to tickets that win the cost of ticket, plus
                                               2 x % of revenue paid to tickets of more than cost and <$100, plus
                                               3 x % of revenue paid to tickets of >$100 and <Grand Prize, plus
                                               4 x % of revenue paid to Grand Prize winners.

This formula yields more weight to games that award more money to bigger prizes. The game with the top number according to this factor is Wild 10's with 153.3. The lowest is Lucky Lines at 109.8.

2. The ratio of percentage of Grand Prizes left divided by Total Top prizes listed. The greater the imbalance, the better for the formula. At present, the top rated game is Fruit Explosion at 2.76. One of three Grand Prizes remain and 218 of 1804 Top Prizes remain.

3. The inversion of the odds to win a prize greater than the cost of the ticket. The more likely, the better. The best game in play according to this factor is Extraordinary with 1 ticket in every 4.30 worth more than the cost of the ticket. The worst is Win Take All with one winner in every 8.63 tickets.

I multiply each factor together to get the rating. Fruit Explosion, the top rated game is rated at:

127.1 * 2.76 * (1/6.81) = 51.4


That's enough math - I'm even boring myself writing about it.

Enjoy the good weather - scratch your tickets outside.

Doug