New Evaluation Method for 2013

Before I get to the content of this post, Turbo Cash remains the unblemished choice if you are buying tickets this week.

How one evaluates the various Scratch and Win games is a matter of preference. Input from readers suggests that my emphasis on the Grand Prizes is misplaced as the chances of anyone winning one are never more than minuscule. I understand what those folks are saying but surely we buy the tickets with the Grand Prize in mind to some extent.

The good thing about Scratch and Win games is that they vary in their makeup. The current recommended game is Turbo Cash. This is a $10 game with 3 - $250,000 grand prizes. By comparison, Ontario Millions contains 3 - $1,000,000 Grand Prizes for only $5. If your only consideration was the Grand Prize, you would go with Ontario Millions. But the OLG profit for Turbo Cash is 30% and for Ontario Millions 33%. How is that possible? It is because Turbo Cash contains more smaller prizes and players have a greater chance to win something (1 in every 3.13 tickets is a winner) than with Ontario Millions (1 in every 4.40 tickets is a winner). If the jackpot was your only criterion then you should be playing Lotto Max and 649. In those games the winner gets rich and everyone else is a loser.

Old Evaluation Method

During the course of the past year, the game I recommended took the percentage of grand prizes remaining and subtracted the sum of the percentage of tickets left to be sold and the house take. As an example, Turbo Cash has 100% of its grand prizes left to be claimed. It has a house advantage of 30% and 44% of its tickets left to be sold. These numbers yield a rating of +26. The Value Play used the number of $1000 prizes left to be claimed and divided that number by the number of tickets left. The result was then divided by the cost of the ticket.

New Evaluation Method

I am going to continue to use two methods but I am going to change the evaluation method. The main method will multiply the number of grand prizes left to be claimed by the amount of the grand prize. This total will then be divided by the product of the number of tickets left to be sold and the cost of the ticket.

The value play will take the total number of tickets left to be sold whose value is $100 or greater and divide that number by the product of the number of tickets left to be sold and the cost of the ticket and the chances of winning anything more than what you paid for the ticket. The OLG does not always publish the outstanding ticket information down to the $100 level. I will be asking them to do so in future.

The blog in 2013 will identify the best $1-$2, $3-$5, and $10-$20 games for each method.

Personal Play

I ended the year by making a double purchase the week before Christmas. Four Turbo Cash tickets contained 2 winners totaling $25. I ended the year cashing 38% of all of the tickets with a 63% Return on Investment. The cash rate was higher than I should have expected but I was unable to get even one good cash. My largest cash was $50 and I only had one of those.

Oshima from Ottawa reported a $20 cash this past week. Hopefully she treated her husband to Starbucks with her profit. Jay in Scarborough went crazy by investing his entire $70 profit from playing Pro-Line all year into a variety of tickets. He turned the $70 into $109. Not bad.

Happy New Year to all visitors. I'll be back next week with a clean slate and new methods.

Doug

2012 Ends with Turbo Cash #1713 Being the Top Choice

The recommended game sold another 56,000 of its tickets this week without a winner. Forty-four percent of the tickets remain to be sold and all three Grand Prizes are left to be claimed. Your chances to win the Grand Prize have been reduced from 476,000:1 when the game started to 210,000:1 today.


Best $1-$2 Game - Snow Globe #1725
Best $3 - $5 Game - Instant Millions #1683

Crossword #1299 continues to be the big seller with almost 200,000 tickets of the 700,000 tickets the OLG sells daily being for this game. Percentage wise, Frogger is popular. Twelve percent of its float was sold over the past week.

The best $1000 value game is $2 Blazing Sevens. The only game with all of its Grand Prizes claimed is Golden Goose. Avoid this game.

Comings and Goings

No action on either score this week. Prizes of $25,000 or more were claimed this past week in: Cavan, Spencerville, East York, Hamilton, Peterborough, Kingston, and Scarborough.

Personal Play

Finally some success! Three Turbo Cash tickets contained two winners and $65. With one week to go in the year I am at a 37% cash rate with a return on investment of .63 for every dollar invested. That puts me just about where one would expect to be.

Nic from Ottawa played a Turbo Cash and won $50. Norm from Port Credit came up empty with his and Anna from Etobicoke is saving hers for Christmas morning. I like that. Anna also purchased hers in Flamboro in an attempt the avoid the anti-GTA bias that seems to exist at the moment.

I will be revising the evaluation methods for 2013 in response to feedback that I have received. More on that in 2012's final post.

Good Luck and Merry Christmas.

Doug

Turbo Cash #1713 Continues On Top

Nine more days and still no Grand Prize winners for Turbo Cash #1713. Forty-Eight percent of the tickets are left to be sold and all three Grand Prizes of $250,000 remain to be claimed.

Best $1- $2 Game - Snow Globe
Best $3 - $5 Game - Instant Millions



Instant Millions is running a strong second choice and the $1 million Grand Prizes may attract players. Of course, there is a trade off at the lower end of the prize structure.

The best $1000 win value play is Golden Goose but there are no Grand Prizes left for that game so it should be avoided. The next best game is $3 - Keno #1410 with 195 prizes of $1000 or more left to be claimed from 76% of the 4,896,000 tickets that were produced.

The best pure odds to win a Grand Prize is our game of choice with a 230,000:1 chance to win $250,000. Beware the $10 ticket cost, however.

Overall ticket sales continue to edge up as we approach Christmas. Lots of folks seemingly cannot wait until the day as they are scratching and winning prizes in the seasonal games. Discipline players, please!

Jay from Scarborough has indicated that he does not like my evaluation system which is based upon winning the Grand Prize. He says that he knows that he will never win a grand prize and instead he wants to know what the best chances are to win anything more than the cost of the ticket. If you have any comments in this regard, please share them on the blog. The new year is coming and I'd be happy to add or alter the current methodology.

Comings and Goings

Our old favourite, Keno #1409 has been retired. There was one Grand Prize remaining to be claimed and 18% of the tickets were left at the point of cancellation. Jacks are Wild was also retired. It was our game of choice for a while. It had 2 Grand Prizes remaining and 12% of the tickets left as of the end of its run. Why not let that game run until someone wins one or both of those prizes? Golden Goose with no Grand Prizes left continues to be sold with 33% of its tickets left.

$2 Bonus Banco was introduced this week. The game is interesting as it only has a 33% house take. Most $1-$2 games have a house take of 40%. Chances to win a prize more than the $2 you paid are 6:1. That's pretty good. Hopefully we will be able to play that game later on.

Personal Play

A discouraging week. Four Turbo Cashes contained two winners and a meager $20. I am now at a cash rate of 36% and a Return on Investment of 52%. I continue to fall behind expectations. I need a $50 winner to bring me back up.

Winners

$25,000 - $100,000 winners this week came from Ottawa (2), Sarnia, Wallaceburg, Sault Ste. Marie, Midland and Thunder Bay. $100,000 and up winners hailed from Maple and Etobicoke. Nice to see a Toronto winner sneak into the group.



Good Luck
Doug

Turbo Cash #1713 is an Outstanding Play

I'm back from my trip to Dubai and London and not much has changed - but things have improved! No Turbo Cash tickets were cashed since my departure. All three Grand Prizes of $250,000 remain to be claimed and only 53% of the tickets remain to be sold. I know that $10 is a steep price for a ticket but it is rare that a game tilts as much as this one has in favour of the player.

Best $1-$2 play - Snow Globe #1727
Best $3-$5 play - Ontario Millions #1683



Daily ticket sales are ramping up as the Christmas Season approaches averaging more than 700,000 over the past 17 days. The big seller is $3 Crossword #1299 which is averaging almost 200,000 daily from its jumbo float of over 20 million tickets.

The best $1000 value play remains good old Keno #1409. This game has less than 20% of its ticket float left to sell. For pure odds to win a Grand Prize, buy Cross Tripler #1703. In that game you have a 98,000:1 chance to win $100,000 for a $5 investment.

The only game left to avoid like the plague is $2 Golden Goose. All the Grand Prizes have been claimed and 36% of its tickets remain to be sold so we will likely see it remain in play for a while. If you're looking for stocking stuffers, buy $2 Snow Globe #1727 instead.

Comings and Goings
OLG mercifully retired the $1 Cross Express since my last update. All its Grand Prices had been claimed long ago. Twelve percent of its ticket float remained when its plug was pulled. The $10 Gold Tripler was also retired even though 1 of its 3 - $500,000 prizes remained outstanding and 18% of its ticket float left. I don't like that.

New games include $3 Frogger #1718, $5 Instant Multiplier #1692, and $10 Instant Gift Pack #1919. Your chances of winning anything more than what you paid for the new games are: Frogger 1:7.41, Money Multiplier 1:6.60, Gift Pack 1:5.24. The Gift Pack is an interesting game as it includes five tickets with low Grand Prize amounts for each. Instead, the OLG is spreading the wealth around with more small wins than what you would normally see. It must be Christmas!

Personal Play
Two Turbo Cash tickets returned zilch three weeks ago. I am going to expand my play this week in recognition of my forced hiatus and the favourable odds. Frank from Scarborough reports 0 for 7 on Cross Tripler (there are two of those games currently in play. Fortunately for Frank there is not much to choose between the two games). Jay from Scarborough has branched out buying a variety of tickets. This lack of discipline is not recommended but it does represent a reinvestment of his Pro-Line winnings so his brashness is forgiven.

Over the past three weeks, prizes of $50,000 or more were claimed in: Burlington, Timmins, Corbeil, Aurora, Ottawa (2), Lyndhurst, Hamilton (2), London, York, Cambridge, Port Colborne, Schreiber, and Toronto. Nice to see some secondary markets getting rewarded but only one winner from Toronto? What's up with that?

Good Luck
Doug

Turbo Cash #1713 Still the Pick

The past week saw another 50,000 Turbo Cash tickets sold without a grand prize being claimed. The game remains our top selection.
Best $1-2 game - Bingo Express
Best $3-$5 game - Instant Millions

The top selling games are the jumbo Crossword #1199 (120,000 tickets sold during the week) and #1198 (64,000 ticket sold during the week)

Best odds to win a jackpot is Cross Tripler #1703 at 117,000:1 to win $100,000 for a $5 Ticket.

Best $1000 Win Value Play is Keno #1409

The OLG retired Instant 649 and Crossword #1297 this past week. Both decisions are understandable. The top prize heavy Instant 649 never sold very well. Instant Game players enjoy action, even if it is minor prizes. I guess that people who want the 649 premise buy 649 tickets. Makes sense. The Crossword game was also entirely sold out and the are two other versions already in play. But why does the OLG continue to sell $1 Cross Express? Avoid this game.

Personal Play this week was poor. The odds for turbo Cash caught up to me. I went 0 for 2 bringing my total return down to 61% of money invested.

Winners of large prizes this week hailed from : Cornwall, Caledon, Toronto, and North York. Glad to see the GTA locations showing up. It's about time!..

  I apologize for the formatting of this post. I am in Dubai and for some reason the "powers that be" think that I am posting in Arabic and I can't see how to change the format to English. 

Good Luck

Doug

Turbo Cash #1713 Remains the Choice

Turbo Cash sold 77,000 tickets last week without surrendering a jackpot winner. The game is now significantly the best choice for players. Odds of winning a jackpot are presently 320,000:1.


The only problem with this game is the cost. At $10 per ticket, it is understandably too rich for many players. If you must, here is the best of the rest:

$3 - $5 Games - Ontario Millions #1683
$1 - $2 Games - Blazing Sevens #1696

It was a good week overall for the OLG with daily sales averaging over 650,000. That is about 10% higher than the recent trend. Keno #1409 remains the best $1000 value play although only 1 of the 6 Jackpot Prizes remains to be claimed. $2 Blazing Sevens is the third ranked $1000 value game and it would be a better choice.

Prizes of $50,000 or more were claimed this past week in the following locations: Oakville, Port Colborne, Windsor (2) , Hamilton (2), Niagara Falls, Peterborough, Owen Sound. Ever notice the paucity of winners in Toronto? I do.


Comings and Goings

Christmas is coming. The OLG introduced $1 Holiday Tripler, $2 Snow Globe, $3 It's a Wonderful Life, and $5 Merry Money this week. Get your stocking stuffers early!

Two games were also retired. At long last the $3 Horseshoes #1705 has been withdrawn. All the Jackpot prizes had been claimed in this game since the 04 August update. At that point 42% of the ticket float remained to be sold. The OLG allowed the playing public to buy over 700,000 tickets for this game even though Mr. Tout le Monde had no chance to win the jackpot.

I'm puzzled by the OLG policy in this area as they also retired $1 Go Bananas this week. It was our recommended $1-$2 game. Three of the six Jackpot Prizes remained to be claimed and 25% of the ticket float was in circulation. At the same time, they left $1 Cross Express in play. No Jackpot prizes are left in that game and they have been gone since early October. Only 12% of the tickets remain for that game. Why in the world would the OLG cancel Go Bananas and leave Cross Express in play?

I wrote to the OLG about this very issue last year. I received a fulsome response to my questions. Here are the criteria for canceling a game:

1. Game is sold out.
2. All top prizes are claimed for games with $100,000 or greater top prizes.
3. Average weekly sales reflect significantly decreased customer demand and a new replacement game is planned.
4. Quality issue with game in market.
5. Security issue with game in market.


So, why was Go Bananas canceled and Cross Express was not?


Personal Play

The worm is turning. I bought two Turbo Cash tickets this past week. Each one was worth $15. As a result, I broke down and bought an additional ticket while on the road to Toronto. Such behaviour violates my basic principles. It was a $30 winner! The $30 profit for the week brings my total return up to 66% of money invested which is smack dab normal. I have cashed 39% of all tickets purchased which is high.


Good Luck

Doug

Turbo Cash #1713 is the New Play

Two of the 16 top Crossword #1298 prizes were claimed last week knocking the game out of top spot. The new recommended play is Turbo Cash #1713. All three $250,000 Grand Prizes remain outstanding after 27% of the tickets have been sold. Overall, one ticket in 3.13 is a "winner". If you don't consider getting your money back being a winner, One ticket in 5.56 wins more than the cost of the ticket.


It's tough when the top game is a $10 game. It seems that you get far less for your money. Remember, the more the cost of the ticket, the less the take out by OLG. $1 and $2 games have a take out of about 40%. $3-$5 tickets have a take out of 35% and $10-$20 tickets have a take out of about 30%. The important thing to do is to stay within your budget. Remember: you're the boss.

Best $1 - $2 game - Go Bananas #1690
Best $3 - $5 game - Instant Millions #1683

Although this blog recommends games, there are different ways of analyzing the available games. For example, the Instant 649 #1704 has the best chance to win a grand prize at 72,000:1 to win $100,000 for a $5 Ticket. For Turbo Cash, players currently have one chance in 347,000 to win $250,000 for a $10 ticket.  By another measure, players have one chance in 9.27 to win more than the cost of ticket in the Instant 649 game versus 1 in 5.56 for Turbo Cash. What's your fancy?

The top selling game was Crossword #1298 with sales of over 200,000 ticket per day. That represents about one third of all tickets sold.

Comings and Goings

Mercifully, OLG canceled More Lucky Lines #1651 this week. The game had been moribund for several weeks. Twenty three percent of the tickets remained to be sold. Why does the OLG make this decision while continuing to sell Horse Shoes and Cross Xpress? Each of those games has less tickets left to be sold than More Lucky Lines and all of their Grand Prizes have also been claimed. Buyer beware!

$3 Super Bingo #3011 was introduced this week. Resist the temptation. We may get to play it in time.

The following prizes of $50,000 were claimed this week:

Bingo #3007 - $50,000 - Hamilton
Keno #1409 - $50,000 - Brampton
CrossTripler #1703 - $100,000 - Belleville
Crossword #1298 - $50,000 - Peterborough
Extravaganza #1709 - $50,000 - Owen Sound

What does it take for someone in Toronto to win a Grand Prize?

Personal Play

A breakdown in discipline took place this week. I bought 10 Crossword tickets! Five of them were winners but my return was a measly $19. Still, my numbers are heading north. I have now cashed 36% of the tickets purchased (very good) and my return on investment stands at 49% (poor). There has to be a $100 ticket hiding in my future some time soon.

Good Luck
Doug