The top rated game went through an estimated 90,000 tickets this past week without losing one of its four remaining Grand Prizes. The remaining float is now down to 11% and the tickets are definitely hard to find in the Ottawa area. The game also reached its deactivation date on 6 February which means the retailers will be returning unopened packages and perhaps selling their odds and ends. Your chances to win a prize are 1:230,000. That is the best odds of any game currently offered for sale.
There was discussion on last weeks blog about the extreme unlikelihood of winning a Grand Prize. What is one chance in 230,000? In terms we can relate to, if you purchased 10 of these tickets every day, you could expect to win a Grand Prize in 63 years time. You indeed have to be lucky.
If you're out looking for this game, remember, it is the orange version, not the purple one appearing below:
Quest For Gold Crossword and Words With Friends were each introduced. A review of each game is contained in the comments to last week's post. QFG Crossword is a jumbo game with a ticket float of over 25 million - ten times the float for Words With Friends. Each game is intended to be a churning game with lousy Grand Prizes. The problem is that they are not even the best games for churning. I rank them at 14th and 15th to begin their respective life spans.
I also signed up for www.playolg.ca a couple of weeks ago. After burning through my first free $10, the kind folks at OLG sent me a second $10 freebie. I'm pleased to report that after twenty minutes of play I still had $5 left.
The site is entertaining and the ability to buy Lotto Max and 649 tickets on-line will be appealing for many. The sign-up process was laborious and involves many different rules around usernames and passwords. My usual ones could not be used so I had to alter them which means that I will never remember them.
They are also prominently displaying messages about regulating your play. They require you to set limits on your play in terms of time and losses on an hourly, weekly, and monthly basis. There is also messaging about this all over the site and they have even run radio spots on the subject specifically as it relates to the on-line site. It's strange, by comparison, that when I visit an OLG Casino it is next to impossible to find the Responsible Gaming Council representative anywhere. At Woodbine, they have a tiny booth outside the slots near the coat check.
What this tells me is that OLG is well aware of how dangerous a concept this is. For some folks, being able to pump money into the slots and on-line table games while sitting around the house in their pajamas presents an almost irresistible bogey man. At least when one has to get dressed, go out into the cold, and drive to the casino, it actually takes some effort. I suspect that most casual players will not be attracted to the site other than for Lotto purchases. It's the folks with gambling problems who will be at risk and that is why the OLG is so obviously trying to cover its tutu. Modernization - ain't it grand!?
I'll find it interesting to track the OLG's financial statements post launch to see if the site ends up cannibalizing the slots play. One last point is that they publish on the web site the actual return rate on each slot game. Strange that that is the same information that the OLG refused to release to me under Freedom of Information as, in their view, it compromised the financial interests of the Province of Ontario. Why the difference? I'll let you ponder that one.
Best
Doug
There was discussion on last weeks blog about the extreme unlikelihood of winning a Grand Prize. What is one chance in 230,000? In terms we can relate to, if you purchased 10 of these tickets every day, you could expect to win a Grand Prize in 63 years time. You indeed have to be lucky.
If you're out looking for this game, remember, it is the orange version, not the purple one appearing below:
Top Rated Games
- $5 Cross Tripler #1791 - 27% of Grand Prizes left and 11% of the float.
- $4 Bonus Cash for Life #1168 - 1 juicy Grand Prize left. Check before you buy.
- $3 Scrabble #1821 - 14% of float and 21% of top prize money left.
- $5 20X Lucky #1808 - 59.6% of revenue to winners of less than $100.
- $10 Cadillac Riches #1797 - 41% of float and 52% of top prize winnings left.
Games To Avoid
- $3 More Lucky Lines #1794 - deactivation date reached. Yippee!
- $10 Bejeweled #1786 - 3 of 6 Grand Prizes left and 70% of the float. Watch out!
- $20 Extraordinary #1742 - They can't sell these tickets. $20 for a poor choice.
- $3 Cashingo #1820 - More top prize money lost versus tickets by 10%.
- $3 Keno #1415 - Negative winners to prize ratio of 16%.
If Its the Grand Prize You're After
(Based upon the amount of each dollar spent that goes toward the Grand Prize(s))- Double Cash For Life
- Bonus Cash For Life
- Cross Tripler 1791
- Fortune
- Bejeweled
Comings and Goings
The horrific $1 Lucky Lines was expunged from the world this past week. Thank goodness I don't have to whine about that any more.Quest For Gold Crossword and Words With Friends were each introduced. A review of each game is contained in the comments to last week's post. QFG Crossword is a jumbo game with a ticket float of over 25 million - ten times the float for Words With Friends. Each game is intended to be a churning game with lousy Grand Prizes. The problem is that they are not even the best games for churning. I rank them at 14th and 15th to begin their respective life spans.
Personal Play
The lottery gods smacked me down after my good previous week. A single $5 was returned from a $35 investment. My YTD ROI now stands at 55%. Bad, but the year is young.In Conclusion
I enjoyed TMF's comments on what he looks for in a game. He wants to churn tickets as much as possible with continual reinvestment in his search for the Grand Prize. I'm going to work this week on a measure that captures that element.I also signed up for www.playolg.ca a couple of weeks ago. After burning through my first free $10, the kind folks at OLG sent me a second $10 freebie. I'm pleased to report that after twenty minutes of play I still had $5 left.
The site is entertaining and the ability to buy Lotto Max and 649 tickets on-line will be appealing for many. The sign-up process was laborious and involves many different rules around usernames and passwords. My usual ones could not be used so I had to alter them which means that I will never remember them.
They are also prominently displaying messages about regulating your play. They require you to set limits on your play in terms of time and losses on an hourly, weekly, and monthly basis. There is also messaging about this all over the site and they have even run radio spots on the subject specifically as it relates to the on-line site. It's strange, by comparison, that when I visit an OLG Casino it is next to impossible to find the Responsible Gaming Council representative anywhere. At Woodbine, they have a tiny booth outside the slots near the coat check.
What this tells me is that OLG is well aware of how dangerous a concept this is. For some folks, being able to pump money into the slots and on-line table games while sitting around the house in their pajamas presents an almost irresistible bogey man. At least when one has to get dressed, go out into the cold, and drive to the casino, it actually takes some effort. I suspect that most casual players will not be attracted to the site other than for Lotto purchases. It's the folks with gambling problems who will be at risk and that is why the OLG is so obviously trying to cover its tutu. Modernization - ain't it grand!?
I'll find it interesting to track the OLG's financial statements post launch to see if the site ends up cannibalizing the slots play. One last point is that they publish on the web site the actual return rate on each slot game. Strange that that is the same information that the OLG refused to release to me under Freedom of Information as, in their view, it compromised the financial interests of the Province of Ontario. Why the difference? I'll let you ponder that one.
Best
Doug
Doug..just noticed a mistake..bejewelled still has 3 out if 6 grand prizes remaining..
ReplyDeleteI'm interested in your take on tmf's views on reinvesting small wins back into a game..it's not so different from my view of getting tickets for half price or less and focus on games with a good grand prize to float ratio..
Thnx and happy scratching everyone.
Thanks Darth. Error repaired. I read from the wrong column on my spreadsheet. My rating stays the same.
DeleteThere is a special game starting on Tuesday called Living The Life. It's a raffle with 6.17 million tickets you buy from the terminal. 1 for $5, 3 for $10, 7 for $20.
ReplyDeleteThree early bird draws of $100k. Top prize is $3 million, next is $1 million. Then 75 draws for $5-50k. Lowest is $20 at 1 in 100 odds.
Sounds interesting. .I'll be in for $10 worth.
DeleteI'll be giving that one a try as well. Thank-you Jay.
DeleteI bought my 'living the life lottery' ticket today. I did the $20 for 7 plays.
Delete3 available grand prizes of $250,000 and out of all 25 tickets Bejeweled is:
ReplyDelete#1 on odds to win $50,000+
#1 on odds to win $5,000+
#2 on odds to win $1,000+
#4 on odds to win $250+
#1 on odds to win $100+
#3 on odds to win $50+
It also has the lowest float of all $10 games - all this makes Bejeweled a top pick in my view.
OTOH, the game has 70.4% of its top prizes left to claim yet only 56.6% of the money for those prizes left to claim. If we assume that 70% of the float remains, half of the $250,000 Grand Prizes are gone and both of the $100,000 second prizes are gone. Further, only 56% of the revenue for the game is returned to winners of less than $100. That is the lowest such number from within the $10 and $20 group of tickets.
ReplyDeleteSo, IMO, the game is not good for churning low prices and its not good for winning big prices and those are the two criteria I use to evaluate games.
I agree that this game does not fare well on "churning low prices", as related to a "2x-5x ranking" since 70% of prizes are $10/$15. Besides the 3 prizes of $250,000, this game also has merit for having available 3 of 4 $50,000 prizes, 2 of 4 $10,000 prizes and all 8 of 8 $5,000 prizes. I stand behind my rating of Bejeweled based on the NINE criteria i use to evaluate games.
DeleteI definitely plan to play 'living the life lottery', I'm pretty sure I read somewhere that the early bird prizes and the grand prize are guaranteed winners unlike lotto max/649 main draws. However, I could be mistaken, but they are only also selling a certain amount of tickets and this is a provincial lottery only.
ReplyDeleteAs for online gambling at playOLG, I've just never been a fan of online gambling....I swear that they have the online games programmed for us to lose. I always do really well when I can actually be at the table, visibly see the dealers, hold the actual cards or roll the dice etc. I'm a big fan of sicbo and roulette.
Last week I ended up buying the last 10 BCFL tickets at a place nearby as it has been hard for me to find these anywhere (No big winner unfortunately). As for the DCFL game, I am now currently a terrible 15 for 50 (winning no major prizes over $100). I used to play extraordinaire for a long time but after being 12 for 29 (winning no major prizes of more than $100), I decided to stop this game almost two weeks ago as it was becoming too costly at $20 a play.
Right now, I am just playing DCFL (5 tickets for $20 and a 1.85 million GP with all grand prizes remaining, you can't go wrong). I planned to pick up a new game but after reading about the bejeweled major prizes being snatch up so soon, I will pass on that. I also cannot find Cadillac Riches near me, so that's out of the question.
I wonder how much longer it will take for the first DCFL grand prize to be found.
$4 Double Cash For Life - Alluring Deception
ReplyDeleteI play D-CFL lightly as i`m immune to the charms of the grand prize. To me, the often posted comments of "$4 cost for a $1.85 million prize" are ONLY relevant IF you won it! lol. I rate D-CFL a 27/100 making it the 3rd worst game there is based on these factual truth's:
- odds to win any prize 1 in 3.7
- 4th worst game on odds to win more than the price of a ticket
- 99.3% of all prizes are $12 or less
- odds to win more than $12 are 1 in 525
- BCFL had 287,000 $20 prizes / DCFL has only 1,000
- 5th worst game on odds to win $50+
- worst game there is on odds to win $5,000+
- 3rd worst game on odds to win $50,000+
- odds to win the grand prize of 1 in 2.07 million
CL66,
DeleteDouble Cash For Life presents me with a problem. Your numbers are interesting but you fail to do anything with the fact that, of the 25 games currently for sale, each one of the 4 Grand Prizes is worth more to the winner than the entire amount of money that could be won by winning all of the remaining listed prizes for 19 of those games.
One of the 19 is Bejeweled. The game had, as of 12 Feb, 7373 outstanding prizes listed on the website. Those 7000 prizes had a total cash value of $1,757,500. One Double Cash For Life Grand Prize winner is worth more.
Your approach counts each Double Cash For Life Grand Prize as 1 winner equal to each Bejeweled Grand Prize winner of $250,000. In addition, the cost of Double Cash For Life ticket is 40% the cost of a Bejeweled ticket.
How to address that in the evaluation method is a challenge. It strikes me that if it was only the Grand Prize I was after, I would play Lotto Games. On the other hand, one thing we can all agree on is that we should not play games for which all the Grand Prizes have been claimed. What to do?
You have stated more than once that your evaluation method is not biased and that mine is skewed towards Grand Prizes. I think that was true and I have made changes to try and address that. I would conclude by saying that your approach, although useful, is also biased. It is biased towards games that have more middling prizes. Those prizes are double and triple and quadruple counted depending upon their size. Your approach also fails to take into account the cost of the ticket. This is evidenced by the fact that your top rated games are predictably dominated by $10 games. Of course their prizes look better than the prizes for $3 games.
I appreciate the work you do and the input you provide. I use it in my decision making. But, and this is a big but, your approach is as biased as either mine or Tommy's - it's just a different bias. As players we have to decide what it is that we are looking for and act accordingly.
Happy Family Day to you.
Doug
Hi Doug, I don't see our views as bias, but as a matter of perspective. With an average grand prize representing such a miniscule % of all of a ticket's prizes, when grading a ticket, i feel, it should not be allowed deciding merit. Of course, i want to only play a game that has them available, but i only ever hold out very small wishful hope to ever win a grand prize. My "number crunch" factors 9 different categories, to give me what i feel is a big enough picture i need to fairly summarize into my final rating. I post all of this, so anyone can see what the final score is based upon or to choose a category(s) that is an ideal factor for themselves. I appreciate everyones perspective here with their views on games. I will never say that mine is the best. I encourage everyone who comes here to just try to be informed upon what they are playing and balance that with their own experiences and ideal ticket factors so they will decide for themseves what to play. I havent won $100 or + on a ticket in 2+ months now so i`m obviously no ticket-wizard lol. With the $10 games doing well in my ratings, i feel it's simply the higher you go, the better the odds and prizes get. I still rate 4 of the $5 tickets ahead of $10 Fortune (they just printed way too many tickets). I think at this time, the merit on $3 games is just so weak, so that's why they are not doing well in my ratings. I sure hope this will change as i`ve hardly played any this year. Good luck Doug and everyone else here! ^_^
DeleteCL66,
DeleteThanks for the post. It might be interesting to create a category for games that show the percentage of prizes for all games that are more than 5X the cost of the ticket or perhaps 10X the cost of the ticket. The results might be very depressing.
Doug
I always buy cash for life tickets they are straight to the point.. I hate the games that take forever to scratch. I. Still find the BCFL around me, n once in awhile I buy the a BCFL but not anymore after reading the comment above that 99.3% of prizes are $12 or under. Thanks :)
ReplyDeleteWell, someone has to pay for those top prizes!
DeleteD-CFL is a bit light on those small prizes because it's so top prize heavy. Then again, if you play draw games and/or you're looking for the home run, then this is the game for you, right?
QFG Crossword: 99.7% of the prizes are $25 (8.3x) or less, 20X Lucky: 99.2% of the prizes are $20 (4x) or less, Hit The Jackpot: 99.2% of the prizes are $25 (5x) or less,... I believe a pattern is emerging....
TmF
No! The pattern is NOT the fact that I like to say, "ninety-nine"!
DeleteAlthough I do like to say, "ninety-nine".
In DCFL 18.5% of the revenue for the game is returned to the Grand Prize winners. That is double any other game. As TMF says, you have to pay the price for that somehow.
DeleteI meant once in awhile I buy the DCFL not anymore though..
ReplyDeleteA good time to buy a CFL ticket is when someone yells, "Get a life!" which for some reason happens to me often. Why they want me to buy a scratch game, I don't know. But because they might be on to something, I do it. 8-)
DeleteThat's funny TMF. You have put a smile on my face.
DeleteHere's my wife and my results for the last week:
ReplyDelete12 bonus cfl win $6
5 double cfl win $16
4 20× lucky win $25
4 (orange ) cross tripler win $25
Spend $108
Win____$72
Lose____$36
Return of 66%...cross tripler and 20×lucky both had a $20 winner
gl everyone
Cool. Thanks for reporting results, Darth! I was going to guess "Till Bay" as your name when you mentioned "Bill Tay" was close to your real name - LOL!
DeleteI've always wondered how games with strong 4x & 5x prizes affect game play and play time. However, I couldn't find a way to incorporate this information since some games have these categories and some don't making comparisons difficult.
Maybe I'm looking for a needle in a needlestack. After all, games with larger amounts of 4x & 5x prizes also seem to have higher odds against winning a prize (typically above 1-in-4). And of course, in the end the amount paid back to players is always 60%-70% and not more.
Good luck, all.
TmF
won $50 on a $2 cash for life, then spent $45 (orange) on cross word tripler didn't win a thing!
ReplyDeleteDon't feel too bad, I bought 50 triplers in a span of a month and hit on 6 of them. just make sure you scan your tickets because the triplers are sometimes easy to miss a word or two that make it a winning ticket. don't throw away money.
Delete@Bill Tay: WOW and wow. @Anon: Wow.
DeleteIn the short run, anything can happen. You can have above average or below average luck.
Sometimes my luck is so bad, I once scratched a CFL ticket and got 3 "LIFE" symbols in a game but the instructions said I need 4 to win. Ok, for those who are super serious about these things, this was a joke.
I bought 4 more orange triplers today. Lost on all of them. They take way too long to scratch. I think for these, I will just scratch the bar code and check the ticket. That way if I win anything, It's definitely a total surprise haha.
DeleteSorry to hear about the run of bad luck.
DeleteI always believed the actually scratching and sniffing (sniffing comes from crying after losing, not putting one's nose to the card!) is part of the game play. I don't see the purpose in not getting some "Anticipatory Entertainment" (AE) from these games.
Maybe try your luck at some other game, one that isn't as involved when it comes to the game play.
TmF
The new $5 WINNER TAKE ALL ticket is now out. Although a fact sheet for full information on the game has not yet been released, the OLG unclaimed prIze page does show all of it's prizes for $100 and up. The prizes and the quantity of each are exactly the same as the previous version of this game. Assuming the remaining prizes and their quantities along with the number of tickets printed are the same as the previous version, here is an ESTIMATED review for this ticket.
ReplyDeleteGrand prize: 7 x $100,000
Next top prizes: 67 x $1,420 - 22 x $10,000
Mid level prizes: $250 / $185 / $100
Low level prizes: $25 / $15 / $10 / $5
Number of tickets: 3,141,600
Odds to win:
$5 or more (any prize) - 1 in 4.59
$10 or more - 1 in 8.64
$15 or more - 1 in 11.47
$25 or more - 1 in 13.72
$100 or more - 1 in 696
$185 or more - 1 in 703
$250 or more - 1 in 2,841
$1,000 or more - 1 in 32,725
$1,420 or more - 1 in 42,454
$100,000 - 1 in 448,800
Out of all 26 games:
Ranks 7th on winning $50,000+
Ranks 14th on winning $5,000+
Ranks 6th on winning $1,000+
Ranks 3rd on winning $250+
Ranks 4th on winning $100+
Ranks 12th on winning $50+
Ranks 2nd on winning 2x-5x your $ or better
Ranks 17th on winning a ticket price back
Ranks 26th on winning any prize
The good news: it rates very good on odds to win mid level prizes and it's the 2nd best ticket to win 2x-5x+ on your $. The bad news: odds of 1 in 4.59 make this the WORST of all 26 tickets on being able to win ANY prize at. I rate this game as 61/100 making it #7 out of the 26 games and as #3 out of the 6 $5 tickets.
Update - a fact sheet has been released and their is a only a very, very slight difference between what i posted above and what the new game actually is - the only thing different, is a tiny 0.03% change in the quantity of $25, $15 and $5 prizes - this has no effect on the numbers i posted above.
DeleteNot that I care much for $3 games but the fact wordswithfriends just came out and already lost a top prize leads me to believe to stay far, far away from this game.
ReplyDeleteI'm going to avoid this game because, simply, I hate the name. "Words With Friends"... c'mon, really?! LOL!
DeleteThe fact it is scrabble under a different name is lame as well. start coming up with newer games.
DeleteGuess the OLG could look elsewhere for inspiration. Not an easy a task as one might think. And tastes are so varied. Some like casino style games, some like board games, some like sports themed, some like Asian themed, some like computer games, etc., etc..
Delete@Doug: I believe OLG slots are set at a minimum of 85% payback. And like places that sell beef "AA grade or higher", one can be sure that most of it is "AA", ie. 85% payback.
ReplyDeleteWhy wouldn't OLG publish this previously? Probably because they didn't have to. For the most part, they're a monopoly. The financial threat comes from local players knowing the payback and fleeing to destination places like Vegas and Atlantic City where paybacks are much higher.
With internet gaming, the threat comes from not publishing your payback, which should be much higher anyways given that it's all software driven. The ease of losing sales to outside-of-Ontario internet casinos is great. There's not much harm in matching a competitor's, say, 95% payback because there's no extra cost involved and in the long run, the house still has a 5% hold so it should still be making money.
I doubt there would be much cannibalizing of slot revenue since the purpose is not to compete against the current physical slot playing experience but to stem the flow of internet slot dollars out of the province. If you're an Ontario resident, don't mind playing slots on a computer at home in your pajamas, then you'll most likely play with the OLG, who offers a comparable online payback percentage as opposed to an out-of-province competitor.
Tmf I have some experience with olg proline and point spread and because compared to some legitimate reputable online sports books I have quit olg sports wagering altogether ..I do all my sports wagers online through my book now..the player payback percentage is soooo much better..
DeleteMy opinion is maybe the sports pools offering is the only offering that is somewhat adequate..
I'm not big on casino or slot games and don't have a play olg.ca account but I would hope their payback percentage is better than the brick and mortar facilities because yes it's all software driven with just a few computer people running it..lol.
..with some online searchs one can find some legitimate reputable online alternatives to OLGs offerings..that's my 2 cents worth for their sports offerings.
Thanks for the info, Darth. I will say that I'm completely unfamiliar with sports betting. For those who follow sports, I guess they can use their knowledge to gain advantage.
DeleteWhat you've said does confirm that there is a risk of losing internet dollars to outside betting houses and I think that by going online, this is what the OLG is trying to counter, not so much taking sales from their physical (non-online) games.
TmF
Tommy,
DeleteDon't get me started. I appealed the OLG's decision to the Privacy Commissioner who ultimately sided with the OLG. They included in their submissions documents that remained private. I disagree with the decision to this day.
In essence, the OLG divides the province into zones then groups those zones for the purposes of attracting the interests of private Casino companies. This is all done under the banner of "Modernization". What they say to the private companies goes something like: here is the population of patsies for you to exploit. As the government, will be ensure that no competition is allowed to exist and you can set the payback rate on your slot machines (80% of their profit) at any rate of 85% or higher and that information will remain private.
As you say Tommy, 85% or higher likely means 85%. This means that slot machines are the only "game" offered by the OLG for which the player is unaware of the odds. We know what they are for Instant Games. They may suck but we know them and can decide to play or not based on that knowledge.
The fact that they now publish the rates for the on-line games is that you have to be a resident in Ontario to play and there is no competition from other "zones" within the province. They also know that the rates are higher than those offered in brick and mortar facilities in neighbouring jurisdictions. In Quebec, for example, they publish their overall return rate, which is better than nothing, at 92%. Better than in Ontario, no doubt, but worse than the on-line games. There is method in OLG's madness.
I picked up my living the life ticket today.I guess I read the info wrong because I thought there was a instant win $20 prize available , which is not the case..
ReplyDeleteI decided to get the $20 ticket because it was the best value ,but the $10 ticket is decent as well.
The game almost appears to be an online style scratch game with very poor prizes on the low end and nice prizes on the high end.I'm hoping one of our numbers guys can evaluate this game...hint hint lol..
You would think Olg would loosen up and have a higher return percentage for such a game because compared to scratch offs they're saving huge money from not having to manufacture and ship tickets around Ontario. .lol..but oh yeah its olg and they know people will buy this game regardless of the payback percentage..
I expect this game will do well and likely sell out..wonder if this is a glimpse into the future of online or virtual type games which are already available in other countries.
I also found and bought 11 (orange) cross triplers for my wife to work on.
GL everyone
I do like the concept of a limited number of tickets available and a 100 % certainty that some of us from Ontario will "jackpot" on this game ..its supposed to work that way with scratch offs but they keep deactivating are preffered games and reclaim the grandprizes for their own coffers..It always ticks me off with scratch games they post the player return percentage but when they cancel a game with grandprizes left they increase their own take back from a game substantially. It's just wrong how they treat the scratch games player...sorry I'm starting to rant again..
DeleteGl everyone
I like it for same reason. I like a fair chance to win and a raffle is even better than a scratch ticket in that regard - although this first go the ticket pool is larger than I'd like. With a scratch ticket, you may never win because the ticket isn't in your purchase area or it's not even printed/shipped yet. So it's like you're fighting two odds. One to get the winner to your store and then picking it.
DeleteIf playolg started doing computer scratch tickets like they have in the UK and elsewhere I'd be into that (provided they were transparent in the payouts and odds posted like papers ones).
I had some doubts at first as well concerning the printing but if you look at the info pdf it does indicate the number of tickets "received". It seems the printing company does print the whole lot and the whole lot does get shipped to an OLG warehouse somewhere.
DeleteThe idea here is that the printing company may know where the winners are but no one at OLG does. It's this layering of security which prevents a breach at one level from escalating. Someone might acquire the printing company's computer programs but they won't know how OLG distributes or vice-versa.
I work in the printing industry and i can tell you we have done print runs in batches as the intended release may not be fully required at once for us to do a complete single run. Or that what the customer had intended them for was not fully realized during their campaign so they may ask us to do a print run in batches to possibly lessen $ losses in printing costs on unneeded materials. There has been scratch games retired with floats exceeding a million+ tickets. I find it hard to beleive that there's some secret hidden OLG facility that routinely turns thousands of $ of printing materials into worthless recycleable paper. I would be fired if i ever did such a thing at my job. We do some security sensitive materials now and then that is always utterly impossible for us to determine it's secure content. So i find it extremely unlikely, whoever is printing scratch tickets, for them to know where or have access too, any winning ticket. Any notion of secret targeted prizing in my view is paranoid delusion. The OLG is pushed contantly by the province for increased revenue. This means regular daily sales vastly at the top with rewarding of prizes a distant 2nd cost of doing business. Any "funny business" wouldn't do jack-squat to have an impact on this.
DeleteRead below ONLY if you can take some light-hearted ribbing:
Delete.
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I stand by my belief that it's all printed and shipped at once based my ONE (1) criterion of actual, factual, non-lie, opposite-of-false, truth: the "Tickets received" term used in the info pdf's. 8-))
I've always wondered what this term meant. Now I realize it's the total amount of tickets they (OLG) received (past tense, ie. already have received) from the printer PRIOR to issuing the pdf. I will admit that not too long ago, I actually thought the OLG printed the tickets.
No, I've never worked in printing unless you count "Calendar Maker". No, I don't work for the OLG. Yes, I do like ice cream.
TmF
If you examine the reasons why an instant game is canceled, they involve issues of fraud or technical problems with the tickets. Makes sense. On that basis it strikes me that the tickets would be printed and shipped in batches. No one wants millions of tickets on hand to dispose of when the costs could be controlled by issuing tickets in batches. Further, in this "Just In Time" world, I doubt that the OLG would want to pay the costs involved in warehousing millions and millions of tickets for months. It makes more sense to have them delivered on an "as needed" basis.
ReplyDeleteAs for the subject of prize distribution, I have absolute faith that the system is not corrupt. As CL66 says, there is no reason to do so when the game is stacked in your favour. I am not convinced, however, that random distribution of Grand Prize winners is 100% random. The OLG divides the province into zones. There are in the vicinity of 30 such zones. A rural zone would include a wide geographic area with a multitude of communities. It's possible, and I have no proof, that the OLG may ask the supplier to produce a Grand Prize winner that will go to Zone "X". No one would know which ticket was the winner or where it was delivered to other than it would be somewhere in that zone. The justification for this would have to do with marketing principles in ensuring that all people, wherever they were located, would think that they have a chance to win. Am I paranoid? Maybe.
The government official says, "Yes, you are paranoid."
DeleteThe government official says, "Great, we have people who believe we are cost conservative enough to order in batches in order to save money and minimize cost." (rubs hands together... evil laugh goes here)...
LOL!
Good luck, everyone.
TmF
Doug,
DeleteSo since you are saying that tickets are distributed on an "as needed basis".......For example, Would they ship out all 4 GP's of the Double CFL at the start of the game being released? .......Or perhaps do you think they would wait for a million losing tickets to sell first before they ship out any GP's? .......If a game lost most of it's GP's in the first month...then no one in the right mind is going to want to buy any more of the remaining tickets for that game...
I do not believe the prize distributions are 100% random. When you go on the OLG website, it seems that 98% of the scratch ticket winners are from Toronto and Surrounding areas (Bigger population size obviously, which means more tickets sold, more winners etc)...But still, I'm from the Ottawa area, and rarely are any GP's won or even major secondary prizes won in the Ottawa and Surrounding areas.
I also wonder if they would stick a GP out in the middle of nowhere (where there is 1 store and a population of 50 people on some dirt country road).....probably where that last Bonus CFL GP is.........
Anonymous,
DeleteI have no proof of anything. More Lucky Lines lost all three of its Grand Prizes within the first 10% of tickets sold. The OLG just continued to sell those tickets until they were gone. That major fact had zero perceptible impact on the habits of almost every person who buys tickets (readers of this blog excepted).
It just strikes me that the word "random" could have different meanings to different people. To me it might me random in a pure way - totally unpredictable throughout the sample. To someone else it might be random within a restricted sub-group of the sample. What I do not doubt is that there is no corruption involved. That does not mean that there are not patterns to be discerned.
We humans love to look for patterns. That's one of the reasons why we have been so successful on this little planet.
Doug
Not trying to make a molehill out of a mountain but with "Words With Friends" giving up its second and last top prize with only a quarter of the float sold, in addition to the TWO "More Lucky Lines" incidents, one where the top prizes were located in the "back" and "front" of the distribution line, I guess it's safe to say that the top prizes can be practically anywhere.
DeleteTommy,
DeleteAnother strike against my conspiracy theory. But I will soldier onward. Have I have told you that I was abducted by aliens?
Doug
Doug had expressed interest in seeing a 5x or 10x listing of games as a % of prizes. Here is a list to show a % of tickets printed for all games that are for prizes of 10x or more of the cost of a ticket, along with the odds to win such. While it would seem logical that the most expensive ticket would offer the best odds for a 10x+ win, $20 200 M.E. actually offers the worst, and even by a large margin. The games with the largest grand prizes, all occupy the bottom of the list, as, when someone takes a large slice of the pie ($), it means less ($) for everyone else. Sadly, you will notice, 99+% of ALL games prizes are NOT for a 10x or + win on your $.
ReplyDelete0.865% / 1 in 116 - $1 CROSSWORD EXPRESS
0.685% / 1 in 146 - $10 BEJEWELED
0.634% / 1 in 158 - $10 CADILLAC RICHES
0.525% / 1 in 190 - $1 WILD 8s DOUBLER
0.493% / 1 in 203 - $2 BLACKJACK DOUBLER
0.407% / 1 in 246 - $10 CLASSIC RUBY
0.318% / 1 in 314 - $3 SCRABBLE
0.264% / 1 in 379 - $3 MORE LUCKY LINES
0.252% / 1 in 396 - $5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER (orange)
0.252% / 1 in 396 - $5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER (pink)
0.184% / 1 in 543 - $5 20X LUCKY
0.178% / 1 in 561 - $5 DIAMOND 7s
0.175% / 1 in 570 - $2 ROYAL 7`S
0.162% / 1 in 619 - $5 WINNER TAKE ALL
0.150% / 1 in 666 - $3 CROSSWORD
0.147% / 1 in 681 - $3 WORDS WITH FRIENDS
0.138% / 1 in 723 - $2 CASH FOR LIFE
0.130% / 1 in 768 - $3 SUPER BINGO
0.128% / 1 in 780 - $5 HIT THE JACKPOT
0.118% / 1 in 847 - $3 CASHINGO
0.082% / 1 in 1,214 - $3 QUEST FOR GOLD CROSSWORD
0.073% / 1 in 1,376 - $10 100 MILLION $ FORTUNE
0.065% / 1 in 1,550 - $3 KENO
0.055% / 1 in 1,810 - $4 BONUS CASH FOR LIFE
0.048% / 1 in 2,100 - $4 DOUBLE CASH FOR LIFE
0.011% / 1 in 9,434 - $20 200 MILLION $ EXTRAORDINAIRE
Interesting chart CL66. Thanks.
Deletehttps://www.dropbox.com/s/3m1hpberdysr9e0/20150218_172638.jpg?dl=0
ReplyDeleteHere's a pack report from today
Coming soon:
$3 wheel of fortune -mar 02
$5 money multiplier-mar 09
...no newly deactivated games. .but they gave us another word / letter type game..lol..just what we wanted..not
Darth,
ReplyDeleteInteresting lack of correlation between deactivation dates and when a game is dropped from the OS Prize listing.
Doug