Bonus Cash For Life #1168 Listing But Stays On Top

Sorry about my late post. Unexpected family responsibilities took me out of town for several days. Two weeks and a day since the last update but not much has changed. The top rated game lost a Grand Prize to a lucky player in Fergus but three of the original five Grand Prizes remain outstanding with only 30% of the float remaining. Your chances to snag one are 1:980,000 for $4. Seventeen cents of every dollar spent on the game will go to those three as yet undetermined winners.

This game, like all CFL games, has the lowest amount of prizes of less than $100 in its group. That is the trade off and several posters have reported bad luck on the game. I have experienced the same but those three Grand Prizes still look juicy and, in my opinion, are worth the trade-off.


 

The image on the ticket also looks mighty pleasing given our weather of late.....

Top Rated Games

1. $4 Bonus Cash For Life #1168 - Good bang for your playing dollar. 
2. $10 Fortune #1779 - IPL game is quietly working its way up. Ten $1 m prizes left. 
3. $10 Wild 10's #1785 - bored with this one? Still has good value and 22-$10,000 prizes left. 
4. $20 Extraordinary #1742 - lots of ads on TV for this one. Will they produce sales?
5. $10 Holiday Spectacular #1816 - Best Christmas game available. 

Games to Avoid

1. $3 Crossword #3206 - Only 9% of float left. Buy #3207, if you must play this game. 
2. $3 More Lucky Lines #1794 - Disgraceful. 
3. $1 Lucky Lines #1770 - a dog since it arrived on the scene. 
4. $2 Royal 7's #1790 - Nothing to like. 
5. $3 Scrabble #1821 - 1 of 3 Grand Prizes left and well over 2 million tickets left to sell. 

$1 - $2 Game Update

Holiday Cashout is the best choice and you're getting a free ticket with every Holiday Pack. Tempting...

$3 Game Update

Keno #1414 and Horseshoes #1806 are the top two picks in this group.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Bonus Cash for Life is the top pick, Black Pearls would be the next best choice.

$10- - $20 Game Update

You can find justification to play any game in this group. I rate Cadillac Riches as the poorest of the group but it is still 10th overall and CL66 rates it as the best game. The only question you have to ask yourself is whether you can mentally withstand a losing streak when buying $10 tickets?

Comings and Goings

The premature retirement announcement for Jacks Are Wild has now become a reality. All Grand Prizes were gone, In fact, the OLG was slow on the trigger retiring this game. Tough to pull the trigger, OLG,  once the Grand Prizes are gone. I understand.

New on the scene is $1 Cross Express #1811. This is a straightforward game. There are four $10,000 Grand Prizes and a good availability of smaller prizes. The trade off is that there are no prizes between $50 and $10,000. Still, a reader picked up a bunch as he is of the view that it has the highest chance of any game to double your money. I have not worked out those numbers for every game but he may well be right. Of course, that means a $2 cash in this case.

Personal Play

Two Gift Packs returned nothing. Two Bonus Cash for Life tickets were each a winner returning $24.

My year-to-date cash rate stands at 30% and my ROI at 59%. I'd like to nudge that up to at least 60% over the next two weeks.

In Conclusion

A couple of articles caught my attention:

http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/11/19/b-c-lottery-pulls-dragon-fever-slot-machine-after-it-dishes-out-100000-prize-due-to-malfunction/

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/50m-lotto-max-ticket-hidden-144925628.html

The second one reminds us that if you are in an office pool you should always have a signed document and be provided with a copy of all tickets for every draw. Don't be trusting. Sad.

A reader also has asked me to ask visitors what they use to scratch tickets with. A loony, a quarter, a lucky penny, a key chain? Post what you use to the reader comments. I like the idea of a lucky penny but I can never find it! Most often I use a loony.


Best


Doug

Bonus Cash For Life #1168 Rolls Along

Bonus Cash for Life burned through 50,000 tickets last week without losing a Grand Prize. The game is the clear leader in the evaluation system based upon 4 Grand Prizes of $675,000. Nine of the game's second prizes of $100,000 have been claimed, which is not good. Going lower down the top prizes, the percentage of claimed prizes falls roughly into where one would think is normal. At present, $.191 of every dollar spent on the game goes to the four Grand Prize winners. At the same time, 56.5% of the revenue for the game is returned to winners of less than $100. The main feature of this game is the extra 5% return offered on a $4 game from what one would expect. At this stage, the game could incur the loss of a Grand Prize and remain on top of the ratings.

Anyone playing this game must stay away from its plain vanilla version #1168. As Darth has indicated in one of his posts, these tickets have not been seen for some time yet apparently, the OLG deems the game to still be popular with the public.

Top Rated Games

1. $4 Bonus Cash For Life #1161 - Strong Choice
2. $10 Spectacular #1816 - Good metrics. Small pool. Game is selling fast. 
3. $10 Fortune #1779 - Inter provincial game, Massive 15 million ticket pool. 
4. $10 Wild 10's #1785 - Game is winding down. 16% of float estimated to be left. 
5. $20 Extraordinary #1742 - Inter provincial game. 28% of float sold after 6 months. 

Games to Avoid

1. $5 Jacks Are Wild #1787 - 1 , $8000 prize left, next largest is $1500. Shameful. 
2. $3 More Lucky Lines #1794 - OLG is right: game continues to sell. We're not buying. 
3. $1 Lucky Lines #1770 - A $1 with no Grand Prizes. Bottom feeder. 
4. $2 Royal 7's #1790 - Only 1 of 6 Grand Prizes left. 34% of float left. 
5. $3 Crossword #3206 - One teeny $50k Grand Prize left. 12% of float remains.

$1 - $2 Game Update

Cash Cow and Holiday Cash Out are the top two in this area.

$3 Game Update

Keno #1414 is the top rated $3 game.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Stick to Bonus Cash For Life.

$10 - $20 Game Update

All games are playable but Cadillac and Gift Pack are the two lowest rated.

Comings and Goings

No games were retired. Several are getting long in the tooth.

A new Scrabble game #1821 was launched. This game has good prize distribution for a $3 game. It has a normal float size of just over 3 million tickets. Here is the prize breakdown:

Grand Prize - 2.4% of revenue - 2nd of the 10 - $3 games.
<GP >= $100 - 3.4% of revenue - 1st of 10
<$100 >$3 - 46.3% of revenue - 9th of 10.
$3 - 12.8% of revenue - 3rd of 10 (negative)

This game begins its life as the 3rd rated of the 10 current $3 games. It has potential. See CL66's posting to last week's entry for a more detailed breakdown.

Another new game, $1 Cross Express #1811 is also on the listings but no game sheet has posted to date. Come on OLG - get those two things synced.

Personal Play

The euphoria of an almost break even week two weeks ago came to a thudding end this week as four Bonus Cash For Life's returned $0, a Holiday Spectacular returned $0, a Lotto Max and a 649 were losers, and a $10 Gift Pack returned $2 on the free $2 Cash For Life ticket. I'm back down to an ROI of 59%. I simply have to get to 60% by years end.

In Conclusion

Thanks to the posters who provided the information on the ability to transfer lump sum Cash For Life Grand Prizes and, according to the OLG, how long "life" is! Check the comments from last week if you want to learn about this interesting feature which I doubt that I will ever have use for :-)

A reader went out to buy a Gift Pack last week and ended up with a Holiday Spectacular by mistake - they're both white tickets. Not the end of the world as I rate the ticket he got by mistake as a better choice but he wanted the darned Gift Pack and thus remains slightly tweaked.

Skill testing question. I took a look at how much money the OLG made out of each game that remains active and has been on sale for at least one month. I calculated tickets sold, cost of ticket, and take out rate. here are the top three:

1. $3 Crossword
2. $5 Cross Tripler
3. $3 Super Bingo

And the worst performers:

1. $4 CFL
2. $1 Cash Cow
3. $2 Royal 7's


Enjoy your week.


Doug

Bonus Cash For Life #1168 Continues to Rule

The top rated game continues to click along with four of its five Grand Prizes left outstanding and 39 % of its float (+/- 3%) left to sell. This game offers prizes akin to a $10 game for $4. One caution is that nine of its ten $100,000 second prizes have already been claimed. Apart from one unclaimed $10,000 prize, the next available prize level is $1,500. $.177 of every dollar spent on the game goes to the remaining Grand Prize winners which is the highest for any game currently for sale.

Your likelihood to win any prize and any prize greater than the cost of the ticket is competitive with other games in the $3 - $5 price range but for some reason commentators have experienced poor results with the game. Some to the point of taking a pause in their play. I think that's a good decision. As soon as playing is not fun and feels a little compulsive, it's time for a time out.

 

Top Rated Games 

1. $4 Bonus Cash For Life #1168 - good game at a good price.
2. $10 Spectacular #1816 - top five prizes all remain. Tickets selling fast.
3. $10 Fortune #1779 - Slow selling game. Favourable prize distribution.
4. $10 Wild 10's #1785 - 17% of float remains. Tickets about to become harder to find. 
5. $20 Extraordinary #1742 - game has good numbers but $20 a ticket!!!???

Games to Avoid

1. $5 Jacks Are Wild #1787 - one prize left above $1500. Who is asleep at the switch?
2. $3 More Lucky Lines #1794 - keep disrespecting your customers, OLG.
3. $2 Royal 7's #1790 - only one GP left. Prize is small for  $2 game. 37% of float remains. 
4. $1 Lucky Lines #1770 - please send this game to OLG heaven.
5. $5 Cash In #1807 - only 1 of 7 GP left and a third of the float left to sell.

$1 - $2 Game Update

Cash Cow, Holiday Cashout and Cash For Life are all reasonable choices.

$3 Game Update

Keno #1414 and Horseshoes are the top two choices.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Bonus Cash for Life is the preferred choice.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Any game other than Cadillac Riches. More on the new Holiday Gift Pack follows.

Comings and Goings

Crazy 8's was retired this past week. 19% of its float was left and all of its Grand Prizes had been claimed.

$10 Holiday Gift pack was introduced this past week. It is a game that my evaluation method has some trouble with as it offers a "free" $2 Cash For Life ticket voucher in each pack. Players should know that the prize for every winning "pack" is at least $10. If one of the tickets has a lower prize value then at least one other ticket in the "pack" is also a winner. The good news is that the game contains an excellent number of winning tickets and winners worth more than $10. The 9.5% of revenue that is awarded to winners of at least $100 and less than the Grand Prize is the best of any game currently for sale. Cadillac Riches is second by this measure. The bad news is that the prize distribution for winners of more than $10 and less than $100 is poor. Only Cadillac Riches is worse. The other disappointing feature is the measly $50,000 Grand Prize, of which there are six. Only $.016 of every dollar spent on the game goes to the Grand Prize winners. That is $1 Lucky Lines territory!

The bottom line is that, without taking into account the free $2 Cash For Life ticket, the game is the lowest rated of any $10 - $20 game. But, that $2 ticket is not worthless. if you assume an average return of $1.28 on each ticket, the overall game fares much better but I have a hard time quantifying that feature. Lastly, there are lots of prizes and lots of tickets so if you want to split them up for Christmas Stockings, I can fully understand your thinking. Remember: if one person wins a small prize chances are another will as well.

Personal Play

My troubled play with Bonus Cash For Life took an upbeat this week just as others was going in the opposite direction. Twelve tickets contained five winners totaling $44. I was actually ahead until the last two tickets! My overall cash rate is 31% and my ROI stands at 61%.

In Conclusion

A big shout out to Shelley who bagged a $1020 winning ticket on $3 Holly Jolly. It could not happen to a more positive and enthusiastic player. That is the highest reported win this year. Congratulations Shelley!

Here is an interesting article from the National Post: http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/11/19/b-c-lottery-pulls-dragon-fever-slot-machine-after-it-dishes-out-100000-prize-due-to-malfunction/

It amuses me how the BC Lottery describes their action as a "good will gesture". That implies that she really did not deserve the winnings. We human beings are programmed to look for patterns. Darth has his suspicions about the placement of winning tickets inside packages. This sort of story reminds us that all forms of gambling, whether in casinos or not, are susceptible to quirks. When those quirks take place we get to peak behind the curtain, if only for a minute.

A commentator asked me about the lump sum payments for the Cash For Life games. Specifically, can you include them in a will. I'm going to research that this week. I suspect that the term "Cash For Life" is a trademarked expression and not meant to be taken literally.

Enjoy your week. It's good scratching weather.


Doug


 

Fruit Explosion Finished - Bonus Cash For Life #1168 Takes Over

The vain pursuit of the last Fruit Explosion Grand Prize has ended with it most likely belonging to the OLG itself. For those who have squirreled some away ( a friend has eight that he intends to scratch on Christmas morning), the last recorded chances for you were 182,000:1.

The new top choice is Bonus Cash For Life #1168. The game offers four of its five initial Grand Prizes of $675,000 after selling almost 60% of its float. The Cash For Life games are top heavy and my evaluation system rewards that fact. Your chances to win any prize larger than the cost of the ticket are 1:6.74 which is pretty good for the $4-$5 group of games. The advantage this game offers is that the "Bonus" comes in the form of a higher overall return to players than the cost of the ticket would indicate. In general, $5 games return 66-67% of the games revenue to the winners. Bonus Cash For Life returns 69.9% which is equivalent to the $10 - $20 games. Barring the loss of more than one Grand Prize, this game is poised to rule the ratings for several weeks.

Top Rated Games

1. $4 Bonus Cash For Life #1168 - Strong top pick,
2. $10 Spectacular #1816 - small float, tickets selling well,
3. $10 Fortune #1779 - jumbo inter-provincial game, good chance to cash. 
4. $10 Wild 10's #1785 - game winding down, still 25 $10,000 prizes left.
5. $20 Extraordinary #1742 - 7 , $3 games or one of these, very slow seller.

Games to Avoid

1. $5 Jacks Are Wild #1787 - all three top prize categories gone - we're waiting OLG!
2. $3 More Lucky Lines #1794 - OLG has sold 40% of float AFTER all GP's claimed!
3. $2 Crazy 8's #1765 - All 5 Grand Prizes claimed. 
4. $1 Lucky Lines #1770 - please make this game stop. It sucks.
5. $5 Cash In #1807 - terrible chance to win more than the cost of the ticket.

$1 - $2 Game Update

Cash Cow and Holiday Cashout are the top two choices.

$3 Game Update

With Fruit Explosion gone, Keno #1414 (not the new #1415) is the pick here.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Stick to the top rated game, Bonus Cash For Life #1168.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Here's an arguable statement - all the games here are playable with the exception of Cadillac Riches. (see the comment section for anticipated rebuttals)

Comings and Goings

Fruit Explosion, Scrabble #1799, and Crossword #3205 were all retired this past week. We were pleased to see the end of Scrabble and Crossword.

Newly launched were Crossword #3207 and 20X Lucky #1808. I'm not a fan of the Crossword games as the low Grand Prize structure of 10 - $50,000 prizes in a float of 20 million tickets is disappointing. Still, the game offers the best return percentage of all games for prizes greater than the price of the ticket and less than $100.  And I have to admit the game is fun to play.

20X Lucky offers a poor chance to cash any ticket (1:4.21) for a $5 ticket but what you get in return is a lower number of $5 winners. I was moaning about this last week so I guess that I have to like the game. Let's see how it develops.

Personal Play

Brutal! 6 Merry Money tickets included a single $5 winner. 2 Spectacular tickets returned 1 - $10 winner. 2 Bonus Cash For Life ticket returned zero. I am now at a cash rate of 30% and an ROI of 59%. Each number is a low for the year to date.

Posters report bad results on Bonus Cash For Life. That has been my experience as well. I have cashed 3 of 24 tickets for a whopping total of $20. Regardless, I am going to concentrate my play on this game this week.

In Conclusion

Received an invitation to visit the soon-t-be-launched www.playolg.ca site this morning. From the e-mail, "Blackjack, Roulette, Slots anda wholed lot more. PlayOLG provides a safe and fun enviroment where you can play your favourite games at your leisure. Plus, for the first time in Ontario, you will be able to legally purchase LOTTO MAX, LOTTO 6/49 and ENCORE online."

Gambling "at my leisure". I thought that I was already doing that. This is scary stuff for some poor souls.

Doug

Fruit Explosion #1803 - One Last Gasp

I am as surprised as anyone that Fruit Explosion remains on the outstanding prize list seeing how far we are past its deactivation date. But it remains there and two commentators have posted that they found tickets on their travels. Your chances to win the last remaining Grand Prize of $75,000 are now 192,000:1. This is the lowest of any game for sale ( Wild 10's excluded). Thirteen cents of every dollar spent on the game will go to that lucky winner (if there ever is one). At the outset of the game, only 2.9 cents of every dollar was directed to Grand Prizes. Your chance to win any prize greater than the cost of the ticket is 1:6.81 tickets which is not great. 12.9% of the game's revenue is returned to winners of the cost of the ticket. That reduces your chances to win a prize of any sort to 1:3.84 tickets, which is very good. The trouble is, I don't consider winning my $3 back as winning. I'd be happier if the OLG was to convert all of those $3 winners to more $5 winners. Let me know if you agree by posting a comment.

 

Top Rated Games

1. $3 Fruit Explosion #1803 - going, going, ......
2. $4 Bonus CFL #1168 - heir apparant - all 5 big Grand Prizes left and half of float sold. 
3. $10 Fortune #1779 - 10 million dollar Grand Prizes and a high cash rate
4. $10 Wild 10's #1785 - reader's cousin just won a $10k Grand Prize - 28 left to claim.
5. $10 Spectacular #1816 - began sale today. Small float. Small Grand Prize of $250,000. 

Games to Avoid

1. $3 Crossword #3205 - largest remaining prize is $100. Only 4% of float left. Lame. 
2. $3 Scrabble #1799 - All top 4 prize levels gone. 7% of float left. Also lame.
3. $5 Jacks Are Wild #1787 - Top two prize categories gone. What are you waiting for, OLG?
4. $2 Crazy 8's #1765 - All five Grand Prizes claimed. 
5. $3 More Lucky Lines #1794 - Still flogging this game. Sold a million tickets since last Grand Prize was claimed. 

Comings and Goings

How does one know that Christmas is approaching? The OLG introduces its suite of Holiday games. Stuff those stockings with scratch tickets folks. No games were retired. Here is the rundown on new games. Please see CL66's comments on these games for a detailed breakdown of prizes.

$2 Holiday Cashout #1812 - Not a bad $2 game. Your chances to win one of the three Grand Prizes is 1:850,000 which is the poorest for the $1 - $2 group of games. But, the percentage of revenue return to $2 winners is only 8.1% which is the lowest for any game currently for sale. As a result, the 47% of revenue returned to winners of more than $2 and less than $100 is very good.

$3  Holly Jolly Tripler #1815 - The 4.7% of revenue returned to winners of $100 or more is good for a $3 game. Otherwise, not much to recommend at the moment.

$5 Merry Money Multiplier #1814 - A welcome addition to the $5 group of games. 7 - $100,000 Grand Prizes combined with a good cash rate gives this game potential. May buy a few this week just to see how I like it.

$10 Holiday Spectacular #1816 - The game begins play with an overall rating of being the 5th best game for sale. Pretty darned good, I'd say. The low Grand Prize of $250,000 for a $10 game is offset by the low ticket float of 840,000 tickets. In addition to the 1:280,000 chance to win a Grand Prize, 3.9% of the revenue goes to winners of at least $100 and less than the Grand Prize. This is 4th overall. Cadillac leads in this category but a poster informed us that you may get more than you bargained for in that game as the car ain't exactly free. The overall cash rate of 1:3.30 is third best overall.

$3 Instant Keno #1415 - Not much to recommend here. A ticket float of 5 million with only 5 Grand Prizes of only $50,000 each is enough to turn me off right away. The best aspect of the game is 50.1 % of revenue returned to winners of more than $3 and less than $100. I recommend its sister game #1414 if you really have to have a Keno ticket.

In summary, the Holiday Games are good choices with the exception of the $3 edition.

$1 - $2 Game Update

The new $2 Cash For Life is the best choice here. The $67,500 Grand Prize for a $2 game is appealing.

$3 Game Update

Aside from the rare Fruit Explosion tickets, Keno #1414 and Horseshoes are the next best choices.

$5 Game Update

If you don't like Bonus Cash For Life, Black Pearls and Merry Money are the next best.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Fortune, Spectacular, and Wild 10's are all good choices.

Personal Play 

None. My pursuit of Fruit Explosion tickets was ultimately fruitless. Moving on, starting this week.

Meanderings

Heard a guest on the radio this morning from Carlton University whose class is testing the upcoming OLG online gaming site. I have to accept that buying 649 and Lotto Max or Pro-Line online is not a bad idea but I am not a fan of on-line Poker or on-line Slot Machines. They have the potential to create far too much damage to people's lives. On the plus side, at least players will know that the games are on the up-and-up unlike current offshore sites. The odds may suck but you're not being literally robbed.

This article also caught my attention: http://bit.ly/11c0Izm . The main plank of the OLG's Modernization Plan is to privatize parts of its operation. The private operator will invest in the network and thereby increase sales. The OLG will then receive a smaller cut of a much bigger pie that will overall return more money to the Provincial Treasury than is presently the case. I'm not convinced that this will be the outcome and the above article may indicate why.

The eleventh hour of the eleventh day of the eleventh month takes place tomorrow. I'll be thinking about my Great Uncle Charlie.


Doug

Fruit Explosion #1803 Remains the Lame Duck Choice

OLG Retailers were instructed to return unsold tickets for Fruit Explosion near the beginning of October. The game remains on the outstanding prize list and remains the top choice if you are lucky enough to find any. Once it is retired, the time for playing $3 games will be gone as there is no heir apparent from this group of games. There remains one Grand Prize and an estimated 210,000 unsold tickets. $0.119 of every dollar spent on the game at this point will be returned to the Grand Prize winner, if the Grand Prize is ever claimed. That is the second highest such figure at present and that is unusual for a $3 game. Your chances to win the Grand Prize are significantly better than the second such rated game (356,000:1 for Cash In). I have excluded Wild 10's from this comparison with its high number of low value Grand Prizes.


 

Top Rated Games

1. $3 Fruit Explosion #1803 - 8% of float remains; tickets should be as rare as hen's teeth.
2. $4 Bonus Cash For Life #1168 - half the float has been sold and all 5 of those large Grand Prizes remain outstanding.
3. $10 Fortune #1779 - Inter-Provincial game. 10% of float sold - all 12 $Million prizes remain.
4. $10 Wild 10's #1785 - Hard to get an imbalance of unclaimed Grand Prizes with so many of them available. Still, a good game.
5. $4 Cash For Life #1161 - 2nd, 3rd, and 4th prizes all claimed. Not recommended.

Games to Avoid

1. $3 Crossword #3205 - All of the top 4 prize categories have been claimed. The most you can win is $100. Can you spell D-O-G?
2. $3 Scrabble #1799 - All of the top 4 Prize categories have been claimed. Why is the OLG flogging these games whilst retiring games with outstanding Grand Prizes?
3. $2 Crazy 8's #1765 - Horrible game. 600,000 tickets left to flog.
4. $3 More Lucky Lines #1794 - Devoid of Grand Prizes, and we dislike the name! Only 2,000,000 tickets left to sell to unsuspecting buyers.
5. $1 Lucky Lines #1770 - A stinker right from the day it was introduced.

$1 - $2 Game Update

$2 Cash For Life or $1 Cash Cow are the best choices.

$3 Game Update

Slim pickens once you get beyond Fruit Explosion.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Bonus Cash For Life stands out.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Fortune and Wild 10's are the best two but Cadillac and Extraordinary are both reasonable choices.

Comings and Goings

I prematurely indicated that Jacks Are Wild had been retired. It had disappeared from the outstanding prize list when I completed last week's update and now it's back. I called the OLG and they confirmed that the game remains active. Retired this past week were Win Take All and Cross Tripler #1766. Both games had Grand Prizes of $100,000 and all those Grand Prizes had been claimed. Thus, they were due for retirement as per OLG policy. Also retired was Cashingo. This is sad as it was the second top rated game for several weeks (based upon my formula) and I never had the opportunity to buy a single ticket.  
Newly released is a $2 Cash For Life game and a large Super Bingo game. There is also a new Keno game (#1415) but the game sheet has yet to be posted on the OLG site.

The $2 Cash For Life is a welcome addition to the $1 - $2 group of games. It is top heavy, as CL66 has pointed out, and it has a ticket float over twice the size of the other games in this group. The value of the Grand Prize is $67,500 (or, $100 per week for life), and its overall return rate to players is 63.79% which is 4% higher than any other game in the group. Here is the prize breakdown:

Win your $2 back - 10.0% of revenue (best in group)
Win >$2 <$100 - 48.9% (best in group)
Win $100 and < Grand Prize - .6% (3rd of 6 in group)
Win Grand Prize (10 available) - 4.3% (best in group)
Profit for OLG - 36.21% ($3,339,515)

I expect this game to be the best in its group throughout its life cycle.


Super Bingo #3017 has a large ticket float of over 10 million tickets. Its 10 Grand Prizes of $50,000 does not excite me but it is a good churn game as there are lots of smaller prizes:

Win your $3 back - 12.8% of revenue (4th of 9 in group)
Win >$3 <$100 - 50.8% of revenue (best in group)
Win $100 and < Grand Prize - 1.7% of revenue (worst in group)
Win Grand Prize (10 available) - 1.6% of revenue (7th of 9 in group)
Profit for OLG - 33.04% ($5,564,402)

Your chances to win a prize greater than the cost of the ticket is one in every 5.58 tickets and that is second best in the group.

Personal Play

Darth and I like the Bonus Cash For Life game and CL66 does not (see readers comments for previous postings). I wish that my personal experience could weigh in my favour but it does not. Eight tickets contained two winners totaling $16.  Overall, I am 3 for 22 in this game with an ROI of 23%. Not good. If I can't find any Fruit Explosion this week I think that I'll try Fortune.

In Conclusion

I called the OLG and had an interesting chat with Joel. If I have any complaint with the OLG it is certainly not with their Call Center staff. The Call Center is located in Sault Ste Marie which I expect means that they are able to attract top quality staff who stay in their positions for long periods of time as a steady government job is one worth having if you live in the north. They do a great job.

Joel informed me that when the OLG orders the end of a game the sellers are to return any unsold packages PLUS any stragglers that may be in the tray. Of course, those stragglers have been activated and the OLG is not to know when those stragglers were actually sold. Thus, sellers may or may not comply with that requirement. Further, as was pointed out in last weeks comments, sellers can wait a long time to have their accounts credited with the returns of stragglers. I can understand why that seller would prefer to simply sell the few extras that they may have on hand.

I also learned from Joel that when new games are brought on line the OLG decides what quantity to send to sellers. Thereafter, the seller can order the games he/she wants by contacting their local distributor. As such, lobbying your local seller to get the games we know are the best to play is a strategy that may be worthwhile.

Happy Halloween to all your witches and warlocks out there.


Doug

Fruit Explosion #1803 Remains On Top As Ticket Supply Dwindles

Thirty-one of the Top Prizes for Fruit Explosion were claimed this past week but not the sole remaining Grand Prize of $75,000. Two second prizes and one third prize also remain outstanding but the estimated size of the ticket float left is only 9%, +/- 2%. Posters have informed us all that the OLG has instructed retailers not to activate any new packages of tickets. I won't belabor the point but that took place some time ago so there are likely very few of these tickets left to be found. I would like to know with certainty how the print runs are ordered. It makes no sense to me that the OLG would be sitting on 200,000 printed and paid for tickets in the warehouse that they then have to destroy. It seems more likely that the print runs come in tranches of 10%. If that is the case, then the fuel gauge is already below empty. Sadly, the second rated game is Cashingo and it is in much the same status as Fruit Explosion. One final warning - if you are buying either of these games make sure that you check with the retailer before you do. There is only one Grand Prize remaining for each game.



    

Top Rated Games

1. $3 Fruit Explosion #1803 - On life support.
2. $3 Cashingo #1801 - OLG only lists top prizes down to $500 for this game. 
3. $4 Bonus Cash For Life #1168 - All five Grand Prizes remain with almost half the float sold. 
4. $10 Fortune #1779 - Jumbo Inter-Provincial game. All Grand Prizes remain after first 10%.
5. $4 Cash For Life #1161 - Best chance to win more than ticket cost in its group. Only 1 GP left.

Games to Avoid

As of today, the OLG is selling tickets for six games for which there are no Grand Prizes left to claim. As we watch what happened to More Lucky Lines and we face the imminent retirement of the two top rated games, they have no problem flogging these other games. In no particular order, they are: Crazy 8's, Crossword 3205, More Lucky Lines 1794, Scrabble 1799, Cross Tripler 1766, and Win Take All 1800.

$1 - $2 Game Update

Cash Cow and Royal 7's are both good choices.

$3 Game Update

Group contains the top two choices plus three of the games devoid of Grand Prizes. Be wise.

$4-$5 Game Update

Avoid the two games devoid of Grand Prizes. All the others are reasonable.

$10 - $20 Game Update

All the choices are reasonable - Fortune is the slight preference.

Comings and Goings

Jacks are Wild was retired with 1 of its 7 Grand Prizes left and 27% of its float left to sell. That represents an estimated 700,000 tickets. Were they just sitting in the warehouse? Hardly.

Wild 8's was introduced. It's not a bad $1 game. Six Grand Prizes available of $10,000, a sprinkling of other Top Prizes, and a somewhat high number of tickets where you win back your $1. Prize breakdown is as follows:

1.9 % of revenue to Grand Prizes - 2nd of 5 in group.
.2% of  revenue to prizes > $100 and less than Grand Prize - 4th of 5 in group
45.3% of revenue to prizes > $1 and < $100 - 3rd of 5 in group
12.5% of revenue to prizes of $1 - 2nd of 5 in group
40.1% of revenue to OLG

Float = 3,150,000

Personal Play

I managed to scoop up Fruit Explosion tickets this week. Nineteen tickets returned $51. My overall ROI bumps up to 62% YTD.

In Conclusion

While in England I purchased a 2 pound Instant Game. The link to the game is here:
https://www.national-lottery.co.uk/games/instant-wins/250000-red .

The tickets are sold in retailers in rolls such as what is available south of the border. But, one can also establish an account with the British Lottery folks and then purchase your ticket on-line. You then scratch the ticket "virtually". Without doing a full work-up I note that the chances to win a Grand Prize of $250,000 pounds is just under 5 million to one. There are 8 Grand Prizes available. That means the ticket float for the game is a massive 40 million tickets! Wow!

I am unable to find an "Outstanding Top Prize" list and I wonder how that would work given that some tickets are hard copy and some are virtual. Take note as this is direction the OLG is headed. Robert Benzie updated the status in this article: http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2014/10/11/three_bidders_vying_for_ontarios_prized_33b_lotto.html

When the Lotto function is privatized one of the consequences will be less transparency as successful bidder will be a private company and therefore exempt from Freedom of Information laws.

Good Luck.

Doug

Fruit Explosion #1803 Stays on Top - Get em Quick

Fruit Explosion remains the top selection with one of its three Grand Prizes of $75,000 left to claim, two of its three second prizes of $25,000 and one of its three third prizes of $10,000. Your chances to win the top prize are 260,000:1 which is the best of any game with the exception of Wild 10's and its plentiful but small Grand Prizes. Your chances to win any prize are 1:3.27 and your chances to win any prize greater than the cost of the ticket are 1:5.87. Altogether, a good choice. Now the bad news - a blog commentator has informed us that retailers have been instructed not to open any new packages for the game. That means that you will have to be on the lookout for the game.

Only an estimated 10% of the float remains and it looks like once again we may not get the chance to get the last remaining prize. Readers have been quite vocal about this concern in the comments section, and I agree with what they have been saying. For anyone who is traveling the 401, I stopped in at several Canadian Tire gas bars along the way and they all seemed to have Fruit Explosions left. I picked a few up and would have purchased more had I known about the pending retirement of the game.

Top Rated Games

1. $3 Fruit Explosion #1803- Get em while you can.
2. $3 Cashingo #1801 - One Grand Prize and one Second Prize left and only 13% of the float. 
3. $4 Bonus Cash For Life #1168 - All five Grand Prizes left after 44% of float sold Odds are 1.1 million:1 to win $675,000 for a $4 ticket. Not bad. 
4. $3 Crossword #3205 - The secondary prizes have been hollowed out. If you don't get the remaining Grand Prize, the next best prize is $100.
5. $1 Cash Cow #1805 - Three of the Five Grand Prizes of $10,000 remain and 31% of the float. Second prize is only $200.

Games to Avoid

1. Cross Tripler #1766 - All of the top three prize levels are gone. The most you can win is $300. Cancel this game OLG!
2. Win Take All #1800 - All seven Grand Prizes are gone. Stay away.
3. Crazy 8's #1765 - Blog commentators love to hate this game. The numbers agree with them.
4. More Lucky Lines #1794 - Launched last week and sinks to the bottom. Two of its three Grand Prizes were claimed in the first week. Something is rotten in the state of Denmark.
5. Bingo #3015 - Lots of tickets - few good prizes. How about 1 chance in 1.9 million to win $50k for your $3 investment. Horrible. 

$1 - $2 Game Update

Either Cash Cow or Royal 7's are good choices.

$3 Game Update

Avoid Bingo, More Lucky Lines, and Scrabble.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Avoid Cross Tripler #1791, Win Take All, and Jacks are Wild.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Fortune is the best play but any game is playable.

Comings and Goings

Hello new More Lucky Lines! We still had the bitter taste of the old version of the game in our mouths when the brain trust at OLG headquarters rolled out the new version. After the old version went to its grave with all of its Grand Prizes intact, this version coughed up two of its Grand Prizes in its first week. Come on! I guess the good news is that this game is unlikely to ever become a recommended play.

For the record, here is the prize distribution:

Grand Prizes - 2.3% of revenue (5th of 9 in Group)
Other Top Prizes - 2.6% of revenue (4th of 9 in Group)
Smaller Prizes - 46.5% of revenue (6th of 9 in Group)
Win your $3 back - 13.5% of revenue (2nd highest of nine in Group and that is not a good thing)

Bottom Line: at present, your chances of winning $75,000 for your $3 investment are one in 2.9 million the worst of any game currently for sale.

Personal Play

I have been taking a beating. Two Bonus CFLs were worth nothing. I am, at present, 1 for 14 and a return of $4 on this game. Two Black Pearls bought just to be different returned nothing and six Fruit Explosions returned nothing. That's right - shut out! My Year To Date return is now 60%. The bloom is off the rose.

 Meanderings

I thank all the posters for keeping us up to date on game cancellations, reporting on phone conversations at the OLG call center, and on individual results. I enjoy reading them.

I would like to clarify one point with readers: OLG policy is to cancel games that are devoid of Grand Prizes only if the Grand Prize is less than $100,000. Why? They have learned from surveying their players that those who buy $1 - $3 tickets care not if there are any prizes left whatsoever. Only people spending $5 and more care about such trivial matters. Do you agree?

I wrote to the OLG four years ago and asked them to state their criteria to cancel a game. Here is what I was told, in writing, by their Acting CEO in October 2010:

1. Inventory for a game is completely sold out.
2. All top prizes are claimed for games with $100,000 or greater top prize.
3. Average weekly sales reflect significantly decreased customer demand and a new replacement game is scheduled to be launched or has launched.
4. Quality issue with game in market.
5. Security issue with game in market. 

It strikes me that reasons 1,2,4,5 are all objective and 3 is subjective and can justify almost any decision on their behalf. Average weekly sales are a function of many factors other than popularity with the public. How about simply canceling print runs and not sending out additional tickets to retailers. That would certainly create the appearance of "decreased customer demand".

For anyone who wishes to see my original letter and the OLG response, drop me a line and I will send you a link to the documents.

I hope you all had an enjoyable Thanksgiving.


Doug
  

Scrabble Loses Its Last Grand Prize - Fruit Explosion #1803 New Top Choice

I was on my way home from playing tennis this past week when I stopped off at a store I never frequent to pick up some milk. And what to my wondering eyes did appear but six shiny Scrabble tickets. I scooped them up, charged home, only to find that they contained one lonely winner of $5. To make matters worse, the final Grand Prize was claimed the next day at a store a mere two kilometers from where I live. I guess I need to find new tennis courts to play on.

The loss of Scrabble brings Fruit Explosion to the top of the rankings. This is a game with one Grand Prize left to claim plus some outstanding secondary prizes. Only 12% of the float remains to be claimed (+/- 2%) , which means that they are likely hard to find. Your chance to find that last ticket is 310,000:1. It pays to ask the retailer before you buy if that prize remains outstanding. Your chances to win any prize in this game is 1 in every 3.62 tickets and to win a prize greater than the $3 cost of the ticket are 1 in every 6.81 tickets. These are average. The one good thing about the game is that it is relatively rich in prizes of $100 or more but less than the Grand Prize. The game offers 4.4% of total revenue in this area and that is best for any $3 game and fourth overall trailing only Cadillac Riches, Win Take All, and Jacks Are Wild.

    

Top Rated Games

1. $3 Fruit Explosion #1803 - Only 12% of float left. Tickets may be scarce.
2. $3 Cashingo #1801 - Good second choice; only 14% of float left. 
3. $4 Bonus CFL #1168 - People having worse luck with this game than expected - including me!
4. $10 Fortune #1779 - Unusually low number of prizes worth the cost of the ticket. 
5. $3 Crossword #3205 - Quirky result. I would recommend avoiding this game. 

Games to Avoid

1. $3 Scrabble #1799 - Penthouse to outhouse. Only two prizes of more than $300 left. 
2. $2 Crazy 8's #1765 - Not terrible but all six Grand Prizes are gone. Avoid. 
3. $5 Win Take All #1800 - This game should be retired but 20% of float remains. Watching.
4. $5 Jacks Are Wild #1787 - Only one of seven Grand Prizes remain and 40% of float. 
5. $1 Lucky Lines #1770 - Stinky game but what can one expect for a $1 game?

$1 - $2 Game Update

Cash Cow and Royal 7's are each reasonable choices.

$3 Game Update

Three of the top five games are in this group. Not long ago there were none. The only poor choice is Scrabble.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Either Cash For Life is a reasonable choice but posters have reported awful results for these games. I have experienced poor results as well. Next best is Black Pearls.

$10 - $20 Game Update

You can play any of the games.

Comings and Goings

Prestige was retired this past week. This was an Inter-provincial game that had been on sale for fourteen months. That is a long time for a scratch game. They still had 23% of the float left to sell and 3 of the 12 Grand Prizes of $1 million left to be revealed. Can't find fault with the decision but it shows again how $10 games are a little rich for most players.

Cash In #1807 was launched this week. It is a fairly typical $5 game. Your chance to win a prize is 1 in every 4.13 tickets (7th of 8 in group) and 1 in every 7.42 to win more than $5 (5th of 8 in group). The game does offer a good array of prizes from $100 up, as you would expect with the numbers cited in the previous sentence. One problem is that one of the seven Grand Prizes has already been claimed. We'll have to wait to see if this game works its way onto my radar.

Prize Breakdown: 10.7% To Winners of Cost of Ticket; 47.9% to winners of more than cost of ticket and less than $100; 2.8% to winners of $100 and less than Grand Prize; 5.4% to Grand Prize winners.

Personal Play

Eight Bonus Cash For Life's contained one winner of $4 and six Scrabble's contained one winner of $5. My poor results have reduced my YTD return to 63% per dollar "invested". Time to get something going.

In Conclusion

To the poster who inquired about how the remaining float size is calculated, the formula is:

Initial Float (from game sheet on OLG site) X (Total Top Prizes Remaining Listed on Web Site/Total Top Prizes at outset of game as listed on the OLG Web Site).

You must remember that because we are estimating based upon a sample, the sample size contains a margin of error. A game with 10,000 listed top prizes will have a margin of error of +/- 1%, 19 times in 20. A game with 125 listed prizes would have a margin of error of +/- 8%, 19 times in 20.

I have put into use a new evaluation formula beginning this week. The formula is the product of three factors:

1. A weighted sum of prizes: 1 x % of revenue paid to tickets that win the cost of ticket, plus
                                               2 x % of revenue paid to tickets of more than cost and <$100, plus
                                               3 x % of revenue paid to tickets of >$100 and <Grand Prize, plus
                                               4 x % of revenue paid to Grand Prize winners.

This formula yields more weight to games that award more money to bigger prizes. The game with the top number according to this factor is Wild 10's with 153.3. The lowest is Lucky Lines at 109.8.

2. The ratio of percentage of Grand Prizes left divided by Total Top prizes listed. The greater the imbalance, the better for the formula. At present, the top rated game is Fruit Explosion at 2.76. One of three Grand Prizes remain and 218 of 1804 Top Prizes remain.

3. The inversion of the odds to win a prize greater than the cost of the ticket. The more likely, the better. The best game in play according to this factor is Extraordinary with 1 ticket in every 4.30 worth more than the cost of the ticket. The worst is Win Take All with one winner in every 8.63 tickets.

I multiply each factor together to get the rating. Fruit Explosion, the top rated game is rated at:

127.1 * 2.76 * (1/6.81) = 51.4


That's enough math - I'm even boring myself writing about it.

Enjoy the good weather - scratch your tickets outside.

Doug

Scrabble #1799 Is The Top Pick - If You Can Find Any

Back to base after a visit to the Somme Battlefields of WW1 and being stranded in Charlotte, North Carolina on the way home. Lovely town. Three Grand Prizes were claimed in Bingo over the past two weeks and 18 in the "democratic" Wild 10's game. Scrabble #1799 is the top pick but only 10% (340,000 tickets) remain and only 1 Grand Prize. The game could turn into a dud any day so be alert.

Your odds of winning the $75,000 Grand Prize are 340,000:1 which is the best of any game for sale with the exception of Wild 10's. In that game you trade off a low Grand Prize of $10,000 against 69 unclaimed Grand Prizes.  Scrabble returns $.073 of every dollar left to be spent to that one Grand Prize. This is more than even two of the $10 - $20 games and first among $3 games.

You are likely to face the common problem of scarcity with only 10% of the float left to be sold. Will the OLG order up that final print run or not? An initial tour around my neighborhood was fruitless.

Top Rated Games

1. $3 Scrabble #1799 - 10% of float left to sell +/- 3%
2. $4 Bonus Cash for Life #1168 - 63%, +/- 3%
3. $3 Fruit Explosion #1803 - 14%, +/- 3%
4. $10 Prestige #1741 - 23%, +/- 7%
5. $10 Fortune #1779 - 94%, +/- 8%

Games to Avoid

1. $5 Win Take All - All Grand Prizes claimed, still 20% of float left to sell. Beware!
2. $2 Crazy 8's - All Grand Prizes claimed, 33% of float left! 
3. $5 Jacks are Wild - Only 1 of Seven Grand Prizes left and 45% of the float left to sell. 
4. $1 Lucky Lines - Terrible game from many points of view. Avoid!
5. $3 Bingo - the game has been hollowed out. One chance in 1.2 million to win $75,000.

$1 - $2 Game Update

Cash Cow and Royal Seven's are each much preferable to the other two.

$3 Game Update

Two of the top five games are in this group. Stick to them. Next in line is Cashingo.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Bonus Cash For Life is the strongest play in this area.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Avoid Cadillac and Extraordinary.

Comings and Goings

Classic Gold, Sapphire 7's and Blazing 7's were all retired over the past two weeks. Classic Gold was an Inter-Provincial game that was kept on the shelves too long with no Grand Prizes. Sapphire 7's caused great irritation to More Lucky Line players as its tickets were always available despite it being devoid of Grand Prizes. Blazing 7's had reached the end of its life with one prize outstanding.

No new games were added although readers have been doing their homework and we know that new ones are slated for introduction including a new More Lucky Lines game. The gall of them!

Personal Play

Last post I narrowly escaped being shut out. It proved to be a prelude to this week. Two Bonus Cash for Lifes and two Wild 10's returned nothing. My ROI for the year dips to 65% and my cash rate sits at 33%.

To Conclude

I read with interest the comments related to how Texas runs its Instant Game process. Lots to be learned there. I bought a two pound ticket in London last week and will be taking a look at how the British handle their Instant Games.

I also intend to alter my formula for game evaluation this week. The current formula yields a rating based upon the product of: the ratio of revenue going to Grand Prize winners at the introduction of the game versus now, the chances of cashing for a prize greater than the cost of a ticket, and the overall percentage of revenue returned to the player. I intend to introduce a factor that will add the percentage of revenue going to winners of more than the cost of the ticket but less than $100 and twice the percentage of revenue of winners of $100 and more.

Devising the formula is tricky as it involves a value judgement. Instant Game players enjoy playing the games. If our only concern was the Grand Prize then we would all be playing Lotto Max. That said, we cannot disregard the Grand Prizes as it makes no sense for us to play games for which all the Grand Prizes have been claimed. Finding that middle ground is the challenge and I'm happy to receive your input as to what is important to you as a player.

The current Bonus Cash for Life game is a case in point. I rate it highly as the game returns 69.89% of all revenue to players. This is a number that you expect to see for $10 games, not a $4 game. That's the "bonus", I imagine. Your chance to cash any ticket is 1 in 3.99 which is 6th of 7 in the group. Your chance to cash for more than the $4 cost of the ticket is 1 in 6.74 which is 3rd of 7 in the group. The 5 Grand Prizes of  $675,000 is a big plus. That represents $3,375,000 of winnings over 6.2 million $4 tickets or $.136 per ticket. Wild 10's, on the other hand, has 69 remaining Grand Prizes of $10,000 each. Yes, your chances of winning are less than 1 in 10,000 but the total winnings of those 69 winners is only $690,000 for your $10 investment, or $.107 per ticket sold. With 150 Grand Prizes in Wild 10's, the number of prizes claimed is much more likely to track overall ticket sales. This is not the case when there are only 5 Grand Prize winners. In that game, a third of the tickets have been sold and all 5 Grand Prizes remain outstanding. Of course, as Pete Townsend told us, "We Wont Be Fooled Again."

Evaluating these two very different games is difficult. I can't say that I am entirely happy with my current method and that's why I intend to tweak it slightly. I'm looking forward to seeing where that leads me.

It's good to be home. Look for the blog to be updated weekly from now on.


Doug

Money Multiplier Retired - Bonus Cash for Life #1168 Takes Over Top Spot

Well, two very highly rated games were retired by the evil OLG in back to back weeks. This past week it was Money Multiplier. Posters indicated that the "do not open new packages" order went out from OLG Headquarters to sellers on 08 August 2014. Ten percent of the ticket float was left to sell which included two of the original six $100,000 Grand Prizes. Using the same math that I detailed for More Lucky Lines, the OLG effectively increased its bottom line profit for the game by 7% by pulling the plug on the game. Had they decided to sell every last ticket they would have made an additional $100,000 than what they ended up making but that additional amount would have evaporated upon the revealing of the next Grand Prize and they would have been $100,000 worse off if both had been revealed. And we know that it is impossible for them to sell every last ticket. For all of 2014, there has not been a single game that was retired without at least 200,000 tickets left to sell. Money Multiplier was in line to run its course but the problem of those outstanding Grand Prizes remains. A policy solution is needed to resolve the problem. Feel free to post your suggestions to the reader comment section of this entry.

The new top game is Bonus Cash For Life #1168 - not to be confused with Cash For Life #1161. There has been some discussion about these two games and which is the better play. This requires some examination. Bonus CFL has five Grand Prizes from a float of just under 10 million tickets. Regular CFL has three from just over 8 million tickets. Bonus CFL has a house take of 30.1% and regular CFL has a house take of 34.6%. As of today, all five Bonus CFL prizes remain outstanding. Your chance to win one is 1 in 1.4 million. Regular CFL has one of its three prizes left. Your chance to win it is one in 2.4 million. Each game, at its outset, was a little more top heavy than most games. Bonus CFL claws that back in the small prize area with only 46.3% of total revenue being paid out to winners of prizes less than $100 and more than $4. For Regular CFL, that number is 49.0%. Regular CFL has a cash rate for prizes greater than the cost of the ticket of one in every 5.95 tickets. This is best in class. For Bonus CFL, the rate is one in every 6.74 tickets. On even footing, Regular CFL would come out ahead, but the present situation tilts the balance in favour of Bonus CFL. Thirty percent of the float has been sold and all five Grand Prizes remain outstanding.

Top Rated Games

1. $4 Bonus Cash For Life #1168 - 70% of float remains, +/- 3%
2. $10 Prestige #1741 - 22% of float remains, +/- 7%; game has been on sale for over a year. 
3. $10 Wild 10's #1785 - 57% of float remains +/- 2%; maximum prize is $10k
4. $10 Fortune #1779 - 98% of float remains +/- 8%; new Inter-provincial game
5. $3 Scrabble #1799 - 18% of game remains +/- 3%; tickets likely scarce

Games to Avoid

1. $10 Classic Gold - No grand prizes left for two weeks now. Come on IPL(inter prov)!
2. $5 Sapphire 7's - No grand prizes nor second prizes left to claim. 
3. $5 Jacks are Wild - Lost three grand prizes since the last update. Ouch!
4. $1 Lucky Lines - Lousy game, name invokes bad memories.
5. $2 Crazy 8's - Only one of five initial grand prizes left.

$1 - $2 Game Update

Avoid the two games identified above. The other three are reasonable choices.

$3 Game Update

If you don't like Scrabble, or can't find any, Cashingo is the next best in this category.

$4 - $5 Game Update

The two CFL games are the best of the lot.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Stick to the three games recommended above.

Personal Play

Two Bonus Cash For Life and two Wild 10's were looking like a wipe out until a $15 prize was discovered at the point of checking the tickets. I cannot over-emphasize that point. My overall cash rate remains at 33% and my overall ROI sits at 67%.

Meanderings

I have read all of the blog comments. I am of a view that the OLG needs to review its practices when it comes to retiring games. The ticket buying public is not always being treated fairly. Any change will have to come from outside pressure. I'm not sure what the best approach is. Thinking.....

The OLG was in the news this week with this announcement: http://media.olg.ca/?p=nmm_news_detail&i=31d4398b-8dc5-4e50-993c-cb32360372a8 . The OLG is an example of an organization that gets its story line approved then keeps repeating it regardless of evidence to the contrary. The Auditor General for Ontario issued a report (http://www.auditor.on.ca/en/default.htm) that basically stated that all of the OLG projections are either weak or defy reasonableness yet the OLG sticks by its projections as to abandon them leaves them in nowhere land.

Massachusetts is revoking a previously granted casino license as they now are of a view that the metrics provided by the bidders were bogus. Regardless, the OLG sticks to its story line. Their incessant line about building hospitals with the revenue they generate is nothing more that an attempt to earn acceptance by the greater public for revenue generated from gambling. Why does the LCBO not make the same claim? Revenue is revenue. Of course, the OLG considers revenue from the LCBO to be "tax revenue" whereas gambling revenue is not. Get real!

 They also love to claim that $1 billion of investment is required in its degrading infrastructure and that the people of Ontario can't afford to make that kind of investment. Really? Well, once their successful bidder is identified (media speculates either Bell or Rogers - what else is new), do you think that they will gift $1 billion to the people of Ontario? Of course not! They will invest then take it back, plus an appropriate return on investment, from gaming revenues. So how is the OLG going to increase the money it returns to the people of Ontario? By increasing gaming revenues such that a smaller piece of a bigger pie will represent more money than what they earn today. Plus, they get out of the gaming business and instead "manage" it. The Auditor General says that there is no indication that this is going to happen. And what if it doesn't? It will be too late to do anything I'm afraid.

Off  to visit a friend in London. Next update in two weeks.

Doug

Lucky Lines Retired - Money Multiplier #1769 Takes Over Top Spot

Folks who have been reading this blog, and the comments to the blog, are aware of what transpired with More Lucky Lines. This is not a unique situation. Readers have called the OLG only to receive their circular logic that leads the OLG to an indefensible position. The bottom line is that they ran a game for which they sold 2.5 million tickets and then retired the game before a single Grand Prize was claimed. I don't care what the explanation is - it's wrong in principle. I'll be taking further action on this one.

I'm amazed that some posters are continuing to find More Lucky Lines tickets here and there. Good luck to them. The new top rated game is also in a scarcity situation with only 10%, +/- 2% of the tickets left to be sold. In raw terms, there are only an estimated 122,000 tickets out there and that is a mere 1/4 of the tickets that were left to sell for More Lucky Lines yet the OLG ...... I know - settle down Doug.

Two of the six original prizes of $100,000 remain to be claimed. The game is not great in terms of cashing for any prize but it is good for cashing a prize greater than the cost of the ticket. It has the best chance of cashing a middle prize (greater than $100) of any game with the exception of the $10 Cadillac game. I've been looking for tickets to the game without success. I hope that your luck is better.

Top Rated Games

1. $5 Money Multiplier #1769 - 10% of float left +/- 2%
2. $10 Prestige #1741 - 23% +/- 7%
3. $4 Bonus CFL #1168 - 74% +/- 3%
4. $10 Wild 10's #1785 - 64% +/- 2%
5. $10 Fortune #1779 - 100% +/- 8%

Games to Avoid

1. $10 Classic Gold - all top prizes claimed. Interprovincial game.
2. $5 Sapphire 7's - OLG has been milking this one while retiring Lucky Lines. Grrrr.
3. $1 Lucky Lines - half the Grand Prizes claimed in first third of tickets sold.
4. $3 Crossword - 1 chance in 2.3 million to win $50,000. Sucks.
5. $2 Crazy 8's - 1 Grand Prize left and 40% of float to sell.

$1 - $2 Game Update

Blazing 7's is the best play in this area.

$3 Game Update

Moving on from More Lucky Lines, Scrabble #1799 is the top rated game.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Stick to the two games in the Top Rated Game area.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Avoid Classic Gold. I don't like Cadillac either although CL66 still has a hankering for it.

Comings and Goings

Labour Day provided the OLG with a good opportunity to clean up the inventory of games. Six games were retired over the past two weeks including the $10 Turbo Cash game that was devoid of Grand Prizes. The jumbo Quest For Gold Crossword was mercifully put to bed along with Bingo, Red Hot 50's, Bingo Express, and yes, More Lucky Lines.

Two new games were introduced: the inter-provincial $100 Million Fortune and the $3 Horseshoes. Horseshoes is an average looking $3 game. It has a normal prize distribution and begins its life as the third rated $3 game of the 8 currently for sale. $10 Games should start out strong and Fortune is no exception. It is strong on the Grand Prize end with 12 - $1,000,000 prizes available and it is also good in the prizes of less than $100. The one thing I don't like about the game is the low number of reported prizes. The Inter-provincial games like to report down to the $1000 level and not the $100 level that the OLG does on its games. This means that only 125 prizes are reported against and that means that our estimates for remaining float size will be no closer than +/- 8%. Here is the prize breakdown for both games:

Horseshoes
2.6% of revenue paid to Grand Prize winners.
1.7% to winners of less than the Grand Prize and at least $100
47.7% to winners of less than $100 and more than $3
12.9% to winners of $3
35% to the OLG etc

Fortune
8.0% to Grand Prize winners
2.0% to winners of less than Grand Prize and at least $100
50.2% to winners of less than $100 and more than $10
9.5% to winners of $10
30.3% to the IPL

Personal Play

3 - Wild 10's tickets contained 1 winner of $20.

Meanderings

My trip to New York state introduced me to this menacing looking machine:

They dispense Scratch and Win tickets in the main area and you can purchase Lotto type games with the buttons in the first row. I suspect that the machines have an operating cost less than the 8% that sellers receive from the OLG. I wonder why they were not part of the OLG Modernization Plan? I guess that the association of variety store retailers has more clout than the Horse Racing industry that the OLG was happy to eviscerate. Thank goodness that Premier Wynne has mandated the OLG to ensure that the health of horse racing in Ontario is part of its Modernization Plan. The machine pictured is located at the Saratoga Race Track. Lets plop one down inside Woodbine and see what happens.


Best to all.

Doug

More Lucky Lines Remains the Champ - For What Its Worth

I was surprised to get back from vacation to see that More Lucky Lines was still for sale. I called the OLG to confirm the situation and they told me that it is indeed the case.  I can't be bothered to provide any details on the game's status as there is little chance that anyone will be able to find a ticket.

The OLG retires games in two ways. First, they can instruct sellers to return all tickets, including any in trays for sale. This would happen if there was a defect found in the game or fraud was suspected. The second way is to inform sellers that they are no longer permitted to activate any new packages but can continue to sell tickets that were activated previously. This would take place if the game was being retired for reasons of low sales, time on market, or a new version of the game coming on-line. In the case of More Lucky Lines, sellers were instructed on 01 August not to activate any new packages. What are the chances that you'll be able to find loose tickets for sale almost three weeks later? Well, I'm not going to spend any time finding out. If you run across them, scoop them up.


 

Top Rated Games

1. $3 More Lucky Lines - (16% of float left +/- 3%) 
2. $5 Money Multiplier - (11%, +/- 2%)
3. $10 Prestige (25%, +/- 7%)
4. $1 Red Hot 50s (15%, +/- 1%)
5. $10 Wild 10s (81%, +/- 2%)

Games to Avoid

1. $10 Turbo Cash - Top three prizes all claimed. OLG has retired the game. 
2. $5 Sapphire 7's - Top two prize levels claimed.
3. $2 Crazy 8's - 4 of 5 top prizes claimed and 44% of float remains
4. $3 Fruit Explosion - 2 of 3 top prizes claimed in first 34% of the float
5. $3 Crossword 3206 - 1 chance in 2 million to win $50,000. Not encouraging. 

$1 - $2 Game Update

Red Hot 50s is the best choice but I don't like the $50 Grand Prize. Next best is $1 Bingo Express but best to look elsewhere.

$3 Game Update

Putting the top game aside, Scrabble 1799 is the best choice.

$4 - $5 Game Update

If you can find any Money Multiplier tickets, give them a try.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Classic Gold and Cadillac (poster CL66 likes this game) are poor choices. All others are playable, assuming that Turbo Cash is no longer available.

Comings and Goings

The horrible Tetris game was retired after the OLG had milked it for all it was worth. Shame on them for that. 20X Lucky was also retired with one Grand Prize remaining and 12% of the float.

Five new games have come on line since the last update. Fruit Explosion #1803 has unfortunately lost 2 of its three Grand Prizes early on in the history of the game. One to avoid. Instant Crossword #3206 is one of those jumbo games with over 20 million tickets issued. It is a bread and butter game for the OLG but it sucks for players. There are lots of small prizes but less than 1 percent of the game's revenue is returned to Grand Prize winners. Too low. Jacks are Wild #1787 is a well balanced game with potential to improve in the ratings. The one thing I don't like about the game is that there are 7 Grand Prizes and only 2 Second Prizes. Your chance to find a second prize is 1 in 1.4 million but only 1 in 400,000 to win a Grand Prize. Counter intuitive. Cross Tripler #1791 is not as good as its sister version #1766. It's OK but I don't like the 13.6% of game revenue that is returned to players who win their $5 back. That is the highest such number in the $5 group of tickets. Wild 10's #1785 has an imbalance towards the Grand Prize with 10.7% of game revenue going to those winners. There are 150 of them. You pay the price in smaller prizes with only 43.4% of revenue being returned to winners of more than $10 and less than $100. That is second lowest in the group.

Personal Play

One More Lucky Lines ticket was a dud.

More Lucky Lines and Money Multiplier are going to be nigh impossible to find. Prestige is next but I have played them before and am not enthused about returning to that game. I don't like playing $1 games so Red Hot 50s is out. That leaves me with Wild 10s which also happens to be CL66's top game. Let's give it a whirl.

Meanderings

More Lucky Lines is a true enigma. All four of the top prizes and all three of the second prizes remain unclaimed. At the same time, only 3 of the 105 -  $538 prizes remain outstanding and all 12 of the $500 have been claimed. What are the chances that this game could sell 85% of its float and not reveal any Grand Prizes? Less than 1 in a thousand. Outliers do occur and this is surely one for the record books. CL66 mentioned in a post that the floats are printed in tranches. Makes perfect sense. Another poster mentioned that with a house take of 35%, there is no need for any shenanigans by management. I agree. Further, the OLG is a public sector organization which means that it is run by Public Servants. All of this leads to the conclusion that we are just looking at a odd ball situation.

But I am left with the uncomfortable thought that they sold 2.5 million tickets for the game and then decided to retire it before any Grand Prizes were awarded. If I ran a raffle, sold tickets, and decided that there would be no winners, I think that I might get a visit from my local police officer.

So, why did the OLG make this decision and is it in the public interest or the interest of the OLG?  In such instances, the public interest should always come first. Lets look at some of the math:

If the OLG had sold every ticket for the game they would have generated total revenue of $3 x 2,949,000 tickets = $8,849,000. The house take was 35% or $3,097,290. I now make an assumption that the OLG pays a total of 15% of revenue to pay the sellers and the company that prints the tickets. That reduces the profit to $1,769,880. We need to take 84% of that number as that is how much of the float was ultimately sold. The estimated final profit is therefore $1,486,699.

Now lets look at the top seven prizes for the game. Those prizes totaled $245,000. If 84% of those prizes had been won, they would have cashed for $205,800 with $39,200 left outstanding. By retiring the game the OLG became the winners of the $205,800. That decision added a full 12% to the profitability of the game. That stinks and I can't help but think that the decision maker(s) knew exactly what they were doing.

I encourage readers to call the OLG call center and register their dissatisfaction. Poor old Darth deserves no less.

In Unity

Doug

More Lucky Lines #1776 Hits The Stratosphere

Another 75,000 sold of the top rated game and again no winners of either the first or second prizes. I have never seen a game similar to this before. This game could now lose one of its grand prizes and continue to be the top rated game.

How strange is the situation? Consider this: All seven of the Grand and second prizes remain outstanding while out of the original 12 - $500 and 13 - $1000 prizes, only one remains outstanding. What are the chances of that!  The problem now is finding tickets. Based on reader comments, they are becoming scarce. I have had the same problem here in Ottawa.

Your chances to win a grand prize are now 170,000:1. For those who are fed up with the game, I should mention that $5 Money Multiplier #1769 is also a very good choice at the moment. You have a 160,000:1 chance to win $100,000 for a $5 investment.

Top Rated Games

1. $3 More Lucky Lines #1776 (17% of float left +/- 3%)
2. $5 Money Multiplier #1769 (13% of float left +/- 2%)
3. $10 Prestige #1741 (26% of float left +/- 7%)
4. $1 Red Hot 50s #1788 (16% of float left +/- 1%)
5. $4 Bonus Cash For Life #1168 (91% of float left +/- 3%)

Games To Avoid

1. $10 Turbo Cash - no 1st, 2nd or 3rd prizes left. Largest available prize is $225!
2. $3 Tetris - No 1st or 2nd prizes left. 
3. $2 Crazy 8s - lost 2 Grand Prizes last week. 1 chance in 1.5 milion to win $28,888.
4. $1 Lucky Lines - stinker of a game. OLG must be trying to counterbalance top game :-)
5. $5 Win Take All - Only 2 of 7 Grand Prizes left and 45% of the tickets left to sell.

$1 - $2 Game Update

Red Hot 50s is the only game worth playing. You must be content with a $50 Grand Prize, but there are 1,780 of them remaining to be claimed.

$3 Game Update

Apart from the top rated game, Scrabble #1799 is the next best choice.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Apart from the top games and game to avoid, I would avoid Cash For Life #1161. Its 2nd, 3rd, and 4th prizes have all been claimed.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Two Turbo Cash and two Extraordinary Grand Prizes were claimed this past week. Prestige is the best choice.

Comings and Goings

A new Wild 10s game was just released. The game sheet has not yet been posted on the OLG site. This is a game like Red Hot 50s except for the $10 crowd. There are 150 Grand Prizes of $10,000 each. This game was issued last year and it did well in my ratings. Plus, it tends not to either improve or deteriorate due to the large number of Grand Prizes. I suspect that it will be worth a look.

Personal Play

My two week win streak came to an end. Nine More Lucky Line tickets contained 3 winners of $13. I remain ahead of expectations for the game and sit at a 69% ROI for the year. Not bad.

Meanderings

I am off to Saratoga next week then to a cottage for a week. The next update will likely be done on August 17th. Remember to check the web page for outstanding prizes right before you buy. The retailer can provide you with a printout of the prize status. Also remember to always check your tickets before tossing them out. I'll report on Scratch tickets in New York State next time.

There was a lot of activity in the reader comments this past week. CL66 has posted his analysis of the situation along with his recommendations. He rates $10 Cadillac as the top game. He is using a different evaluation system than I do so, if you want a second opinion, take a look at his comments.

I am going to find it interesting to see what the OLG does with Turbo Cash. If they follow their policy, because the Grand Prize for the game is $250,000, the game should be retired now that it is devoid of Grand Prizes. But there remains 40% of the float to sell! On the other hand we have More Lucky Lines with a Grand Prize of less than $100,000, all of its Grand Prizes left, and 17% of its float to sell. Another criteria to retire a game is low ticket sales. It stands to reason that sales will decrease as the number of tickets left to sell decreases. I'd love to be a fly on the wall of the weekly meeting where these sorts of things are discussed. Those folks should know that we're watching them :-)


Best to all.


Doug

  

More Lucky Lines #1776 Continues to Rule to Roost

Another week goes by, 80 thousand tickets sold, and still all three Grand Prizes and all four second prizes remain to be claimed for this game.  An estimated 20% of the float remains outstanding making your chances of winning one of the Grand Prizes a juicy 197,000:1. Posters have indicated that a scarcity for the game is beginning to set in. That makes sense. I know that several people have indicated that they are fed up with the game. So am I. But, I can't get off the bandwagon. The odds against none of the top seven prizes being claimed in the first 80% of tickets sold is very low. Too low. Maybe the poster who suggested that winners must have lost their winning tickets is on to something. It's all very strange. But, unlikely things do happen. If they didn't, no one would ever buy a ticket to begin with.

Top Rated Games

1. $3 More Lucky Lines (20% of float left, +/- 3%)
2. $5 Money Multiplier (14%, +/- 2%)
3. $10 Prestige (27%, +/- 7%)
4. $10 Turbo Cash (45%, +/- 2%)
5. $20 Extraordinary (87%, +/- 4%)

Games to Avoid

1. $3 Tetris - worst game by far. 
2. $1 Lucky Lines - Lost one grand prize from within first 5% of tickets sold.
3. $3 CrossWord - 1.8 million to one to win $50,000. A stinker. 
4. $5 Win Take All - Five of seven grand prizes claimed in first half of ticket float. 
5. $3 Cashingo - Three of four grand prizes claimed. 1.4 million to one to win $75,000. 

$1 - $2 Game Update

Good times are over in this area. The Red Hot 50's game is the only reasonable choice.

$3 Game Update

The top game is by far the best choice. Still, if you must, Bingo #3014 is the next best.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Avoid Win Take All and Sapphire 7s. Money Multiplier is a good choice.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Avoid Classic Gold and Cadillac.

Comings and Goings

Our friends at the OLG finally withdrew Cash For Life Family #1165. It was our game of choice for some time then deteriorated into the game to avoid. It departed with no Grand Prizes and 8% of its float left to sell.

New on the scene is $5 Black Pearls #1795 and $2 Royal 7's #1790. We have seen Black Pearls before. Its earlier version was retired last September. It is very light in prizes between $100 and less than the Grand prize. It's above average in small prizes so it may become a good choice for those who like lots of small winners.

Royal 7's has lots of different prize amounts which is unusual for a $2 game. Its prize structure for prizes from $100 up to the Grand Prize is the best for games currently for sale in the $1-$2 area. The trade-off is in the area of lower prizes. This game could improve in the ratings if no Grand Prizes are claimed early on in the game.

Personal Play

Ten More Lucky Lines tickets included five winners totaling $44. That makes two weeks in a row that I have kept my head above water. Of course, any prize of $100 or more continues to escape my reach but I am showing a return of 86% on this game to date which is very good. My overall return rate this year is 69% and that is also a bit better than I should have expected. I hope that does not portend a string of bad luck.

Meanderings

Thanks to the posters who commented this week. You know, If I was to actually win a Grand Prize in More Lucky Lines I'd feel badly for Darth. The poor guy is scouring the province and pounding away with purpose. If anyone deserves some good luck, it's him.

Two posters also indicated that they thought that they had losing tickets in the recommended games but upon verification they turned out to be winners. That is very easy to do in this game so please please please never toss a loser without confirming with the ticket checker machine that it is indeed a loser.

Also of note is the number of folks playing Poker Lotto. They seem to like the game and have had some success.They recommend playing only when the jackpot gets up towards $150,000. It is currently $75,000 so I think that I'll watch for a while.


Best to all.


Doug

More Lucky Lines #1776 Is Becoming a Freak

A wild week on the blog with Darth Vader roaming all over South Western Ontario scooping up entire packages of More Lucky Lines. When all the posters results were tabulated, readers purchased 461 tickets and obtained a return of 61.2% on their investment. The almost predictable oddity was that the poster who snagged the largest prize ($58) was the one who purchased the fewest number of tickets! The larger the number of tickets purchased, the more the results should trend towards the 60% figure for this game (excluding any prizes of $100 or more).

Even after our limited damage to the float, 23% (+/- 3%) of the float, or 672,000 tickets are left to be sold. All three of the Grand Prizes remain outstanding and, even more peculiarly, all four second prizes of $5000 are also outstanding. Very strange. But, as one poster indicated, when this sort of thing happens, they tend to go all at once. The tickets should begin to become somewhat scarce at this point so you may have to shop around. One poster also indicated that a new More Lucky Lines (yellow tickets) is now available for sale. The game is not listed on the web site but if that is the case please be diligent when buying.

Top Rated Games

1. More Lucky Lines #1776 (23% of float left +/- 3%)
2. 20X Lucky #1789 (14% +/- 3%)
3. Money Multiplier #1769 (17% +/- 2%)
4. Prestige #1741(28% +/- 7%)
5. Extraordinary #1742 (88% +/- 4%)

Games to Avoid

1. $4 Cash for Life #1165 - Game should be canceled by OLG policy. Horrible choice.
2. $3 Tetris #1793 - Devoid of Grand Prizes, 15% of float left. Retire this game!
3. $3 Cashingo #1801 - 3 of 4 Grand Prizes claimed; half of float left to sell.
4. $3 Crossword #3205 - 1 chance in 10 million to win a $50,000 prize
5. $1 Lucky Lines #1770 - Grand Prize or $50; nothing in between.

$1 - $2 Game Update

Nothing much going on here. Red Hot 50's is OK but its grand prize is only $50.

$3 Game Update

Have to play the recommended game although some posters may be sick and tired of scratching these tickets. Plus, it's easy to mess up and not realize that your ticket is a winner. As a poster reminds us all, always check your tickets. Bingo #3014 is the next best $3 game, if you must.

$4 - $5 Game Update

20X Lucky and Money Multiplier are both good choices.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Neither of Cadillac nor Classic Gold is worth your money.

Comings and Goings

$10 Cash for Life Family was retired this week with 1 Grand Prize left to claim. The $1 and $2 versions of this game were retired earlier. Each of those games also had one Grand Prize left when they were retired. There is but one of the original four games that is left for sale. You guessed it --- the one with no Grand Prizes. Come on OLG!

Personal Play

Like other posters, my 10 More Lucky Lines tickets return $21. I am loathe to admit this but an impulse buy of three Sapphire 7 tickets hit for $31 bringing me into profit status for the week. A lack of discipline should be punished by the gods, not rewarded.

Meanderings

I have received a couple of messages from readers that merit replies. I'll be working on those replies this week.

After two years of writing this blog, the number of people visiting the pages is growing. Thanks to all for reading. I also "Tweet" the link to the blog. You can follow me @Usockem. Re-tweeting it would be appreciated.

Saratoga opens tomorrow. If any of you are traveling through upstate New York between now and Labour Day, make the time to visit Saratoga Springs and spend a day at the track. It's not like any race track that you have ever seen before.


Doug

More Lucky Lines #1776 Maintains Its Position

Two weeks after taking over the top spot, More Lucky Lines remains the choice. The game features all three of its Grand Prizes of $75,000 being unclaimed with 27% (+/- 3%) of its float left to sell. Your odds of hitting a grand prize are one in 265,000. That is the second best chance of all games currently for sale.

I have some concern about the game as poster Darth Vader has been playing this game steadily and not receiving the rate of return that he should. I find that to be very odd. Suspicious, in fact. This game returns 2.5% of total revenue to the Grand Prize winners, 2.6% to secondary prize winners, 46.5% to winners of less than $100, and 13.5% to winners of $3 prizes. So, even if Darth does not get a prize of $100 or more he should be returning 60% of his investment if the sample size is large enough. From reading his posts, it should be. My personal play on the game has also failed to meet the 60% standard. I'm going to total up his numbers, do a little math, and report back. It's always amazing to me how often strings of bad luck afflict players and how rarely those same people are visited by good luck. Still, the game remains the game of choice.

Top Rated Games

1. More Lucky Lines #1776 (27% of float left +/- 3%)
2. Cash For Life #1161 (39%, +/- 3%)
3. 20X Lucky #1789 (15%, +/- 3%)
4. Prestige #1741 (28%, +/- 7%)
5. Red Hot 50s (22%, +/- 1%)

Games to Avoid

1. $4 Cash For Life #1165  (1-6th prize remaining, most you can win is $500!)
2. $3 Tetris #1793 (All Grand Prizes and Second Prizes are gone)
3. $1 Bingo Express #1753 (1 Grand Prize left and 800,000 tickets)
4. $1 Lucky Lines #1770 (New Game and already on the "avoid" list)
5. $3 Crossword #3205 (1.4 million to 1 to win $50,000. No thank-you)

$1-$2 Game Update

Red Hot 50s is playable but the top prize is only $50. All the others are poor.

$3 Game Update

More Lucky Lines towers above the rest.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Not one, not two, but three Cash For Life games on sale simultaneously. How about canceling the sucker game #1165 OLG?

$10 - $20 Game Update

Prestige and Extraordinary are playable. For the cost, both games should be extraordinary - but they're not.

Comings and Goings

I missed a week so there is some activity to report: three new games have been added, three have been retired.

Hitting the dustbin were Aces and 8s, Keno #1412, and $200 Million. $200 Million was an inter-provincial game that had been on sale for 15 months. It was the benefactor of marketing campaigns by the lottery corporations. Still, after 15 months only 60% of the float ended up being sold. At the time of its demise, there were 4 - $2 million prizes outstanding. Over the course of the past two months, there were only 500,000 of its tickets sold across Canada. Meanwhile, Bingo #3014 sold over six times as many tickets in Ontario alone. It's safe to say that scratch ticket players in Canada have a price resistance point and it is somewhat less than $20 per ticket.

Both Aces and 8s and Keno had one Grand Prize left to claim and 10-15% of their respective ticket floats left to sell. An argument could be made why they were retired but there remains games for sale that are worse choices than any of the three that were retired. Much worse, in fact.

New on the scene are:

$1 Lucky Lines Express 1.3, 0.0 , 46.0, 12.6, 40.0
$3 Scrabble 2.4, 3.4, 50.6, 12.9, 35.0.
$4 Bonus Cash For Life 9.5, 3.2, 46.3, 10.2, 30.1.

(revenue breakdown is: Grand Prizes, Prizes $100 or more but less than Grand Prize, prizes less than $100 and more than cost of ticket, prizes worth the cost of the ticket, OLG profit). You will note that the Scrabble numbers do not add up to 100. I'll be calling the OLG about that little problem.

Lucky Lines Express is your typical lousy $1 game. Scrabble is acceptable and we know that everyone loves to play these games, me included. Cash For Life always rates well due to the 9.5% of revenue that goes to the five Grand Prize winners. You pay for that in the lower prize area where only 56.5% of revenue is returned to players. The game is also light on secondary prizes but you can't get everything in one game. With any luck we may be playing this game in the future.

Personal Play

Thirteen More Lucky Lines tickets contained 5 winners totaling $20. That places me right with Darth Vader. I had the right to expect more. My year to date results are presently a cash rate of 32% and a return on investment of 63%. Nothing terrible but, like Eugenie Bouchard, I expect to win.

Meanderings

Thanks to Darth Vader for posting information as to Grand Prizes claimed yesterday. My analysis was as of Monday. You need to keep up to date and should always check with the seller to make sure that grand prizes for the game you are about to play have not been recently claimed. For the two weeks between blog postings (I know, I was lazy - sorry), Grand Prizes were claimed for the following: Blazings 7s, Crazy 8s, Cashingo, Keno, Crosstripler, Money Multiplier, Sapphire 7s, and Win Take All. It pays to be sure before you buy.


My condolences to all Brazil supporters. That was brutal.


Doug