Tuesday, 2 July 2019

Ontario 49 - Final Report

My 10 week trial of Ontario 49 yielded a return of $62 versus an expected return of $38. Nothing to complain about but I still lost $38.

The chances of winning anything more that $10 in a 100 ticket trial is very small and I did not defy those odds. I achieved the high return by hitting 3 correct on four separate occasions. I would have expected to do so only twice.

There was an unusual event that took place during the trial. You have one chance in 14 million to win a Grand Prize of $2 million. There was about 14 million tickets sold over the course of the trial which should have produced one winner. It turned out that there were two - and both hit on the same draw. As a result, those two lucky souls had to split the $2 million.

It is quite a handy little rule as I expect that the 14 million tickets issued represented about $12 million in revenue (allowing for free ticket redemption). From that 12 million, about $6 million would have been profit. Had the OLG paid each winner $2 Million, they would have reduced their profit to $4 million. Had the two winners done so on different draws within the sample, that would have been true. So, the OLG increased its profit over the sample period by 30% by having that little innocuous rule in place.

The same rule is in place for the second prize of $50,000. In our sample period, that prize was won 4 times over twenty draws versus an expectation of 6 times. The four winners all won on separate draws. I think that making them split that prize is chintzy on behalf of the OLG. Your chances to win the $50,000 are one in 2.3 million. Not very likely and I have to split the teeny prize?


My next experiment is going to be Daily Grand. I am headed to the USA for a few days next week. I plan to blow my lottery ticket budget on Powerball tickets that week and I intend to buy a few Scratch tickets this week.

Tune back in later for an explanation of Daily Grand.


Scratch Ticket Recommendations

Recommended
$3 Bingo 3026
$4 Cash For Life 1174 (not 1175, a new version)
$5 White Diamond 2095
$20 Colos Casino 2140


Games to Avoid
$3 Cash Words 2141
$3 Poker 2134


Doug





2 comments:

  1. You're back! I used to follow your blog with a lot of success back in 2016. I see you haven't posted since July. Hoping you get back in the scratch game!

    ReplyDelete