I would have thought that the top rated game, Diamond 7's, would have been deleted from the OLG O/S prize list by now, but it remains for at least today. The game has an estimated 11% of its float left to sell and two Grand Prizes to cough up. Your chances to win one are 170,000:1. The game retains 265 of its 2391 top prizes. Both of the second prizes of $27,777 have been claimed. The third prize level is $900 which is the most you can win if you don't connect for a big one. The game was de-activated on 01 May which makes me almost certain the last hoorah for the game is just around the corner. Go get em, if you can find em.
In a fit of excess I violated my budget limits when I stumbled upon a trove of Diamond 7's. Twenty-two of the suckers contained six winners totaling $58. The only good news is that I thought I had won $38 until I checked the tickets. It took me a while to figure out that a horseshoe meant that the prize was doubled. As a poster mentioned this past week, always always always check your tickets, even when you're sure that they were losers.
The topic of Grand Prize distribution has been batted around this past week. Are those tickets randomly distributed in the full sense of the word, as some believe, or does the OLG ensure that all Ontarians live with the hope of winning by ensuring that those tickets are well dispersed?
We can form conclusions about this by studying winning tickets by zone versus the volume of tickets sold in the same zone. Of course, the sample size would have to be large. I don't have the wherewithal to undertake the task now but maybe next winter....
I leave you with a question that points to the difference between our rational minds and our emotional beings (no, not your example TMF). You enter your local slot palace and happen upon a machine that is displaying a jackpot winning combination. It's clear that the last person to play the machine hit the jackpot and left immediately. You,
A) Sit down at that machine because it's "hot".
B) Avoid the machine as the chances of hitting the jackpot twice is almost zero, squared.
C) Head to the bar to see if you can't find the lucky winner celebrating and assess if you can pick his pocket.
Enjoy.
Doug
Top Rated Games
- $5 Diamond 7's #1822- going, going, .....
- $3 Fruit Explosion #1834 - a steady climber based upon the one remaining Grand Prize
- $3 Super Bingo #3018 - Second best low prize availability of any game for sale.
- $3 QFG Crossword #3208 - Only 2.4 million:1 to win $50,000!
- $3 Bingo #3016 - 7 of 10 Grand Prizes remain - 49% of the float remains.
Games to Avoid
- $4 DBL Cash For Life #1170 - Opt for Lotto Max if you are leaning toward this game.
- $2 Fast 200's #1817 - $200 is the Grand Prize.
- $2 Black Jack #1804 - game has been moribund for months.
- $2 CFL #1169 - Grand Prizes have been gutted.
- $10 Bejeweled #1786 - Poor on both rating factors.
Games To Play If It Is Grand Prize Or Bust
- Double Cash For Life
- Diamond 7's
- Extraordinary
- Bejeweled
- Hit Jackpot
Games Devoid Of Grand Prizes
- Words With Friends
- Wheel Of Fortune
- Cashingo
- Black Jack
Comings and Goings
We bid adieu to Crossword #3207. It was on the stinker list.Personal Play
In a fit of excess I violated my budget limits when I stumbled upon a trove of Diamond 7's. Twenty-two of the suckers contained six winners totaling $58. The only good news is that I thought I had won $38 until I checked the tickets. It took me a while to figure out that a horseshoe meant that the prize was doubled. As a poster mentioned this past week, always always always check your tickets, even when you're sure that they were losers.
In Conclusion
The topic of Grand Prize distribution has been batted around this past week. Are those tickets randomly distributed in the full sense of the word, as some believe, or does the OLG ensure that all Ontarians live with the hope of winning by ensuring that those tickets are well dispersed?
We can form conclusions about this by studying winning tickets by zone versus the volume of tickets sold in the same zone. Of course, the sample size would have to be large. I don't have the wherewithal to undertake the task now but maybe next winter....
I leave you with a question that points to the difference between our rational minds and our emotional beings (no, not your example TMF). You enter your local slot palace and happen upon a machine that is displaying a jackpot winning combination. It's clear that the last person to play the machine hit the jackpot and left immediately. You,
A) Sit down at that machine because it's "hot".
B) Avoid the machine as the chances of hitting the jackpot twice is almost zero, squared.
C) Head to the bar to see if you can't find the lucky winner celebrating and assess if you can pick his pocket.
Enjoy.
Doug
https://www.dropbox.com/s/v0t87fvo0cq6e6c/20150527_201412.jpg?dl=0
ReplyDeleteHere's a pack report from may 25:
1832 $3 Tetris-june 01
1844 $10 classic white-june 01
1819 $10 cash blast-june 08
Most recent deactivated games:
$2 cfl may 22
$2 blackjack may 22
$3 wheel of fortune may 15
$5 hit jackpot may 15
..not one but two $10 games coming out soon wonder what games get deactivated to make room..Cadillac? Bejewelled? Ruby maybe.
super bingo has been good to me since it came out ..only played 7 tickets and won $46 ..almost every ticket won a prize..
From the pack report, QFG is still selling well. I estimate 7-8 weeks of supply left. Also, with #3018 SB and #3016 B both going for $3 and SB having a higher SPPB, a higher overall payback and more gameplay (6 boards vs. 4 boards), it's no surprise SB is selling well compared to the regular version.
DeleteNice going on your SB snags, Darth!
Current Scratch Tickets Estimated Odds
ReplyDelete(from info on the OLG unclaimed prize page as of 9pm Wednesday May 27th)
Available grand prizes (by the odds):
1 in 158,375 $77,777 $5 DIAMOND 7s
1 in 405,079 $100,000 $5 20X THE MONEY
1 in 416,000 $10,000 $1 CROSSWORD EXPRESS
1 in 471,439 $100,000 $5 SILVER & GOLD
1 in 480,804 $10,000 $1 5X THE MONEY
1 in 487,200 $100,000 $5 WINNER TAKE ALL
1 in 493,818 $100,000 $5 HIT THE JACKPOT
1 in 501,000 $250,000 $10 BEJEWELED
1 in 534,333 $75,000 $3 FRUIT EXPLOSION
1 in 544,338 $100,000 $5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER
1 in 576,933 $100,000 $5 MONEY MULTIPLIER
1 in 585,118 $10,000 $1 BINGO EXPRESS
1 in 625,333 $75,000 $3 15X THE MONEY
1 in 670,400 $50,000 $3 BINGO
1 in 693,333 $10,000 $1 $10,000 SPIN
1 in 901,385 $35,000 $2 10X THE MONEY
1 in 980,000 $50,000 $3 KENO (purple)
1 in 1,014,426 $250,000 $10 CADILLAC RICHES
1 in 1,086,981 $50,000 $3 SUPER BINGO
1 in 1,246,710 $50,000 $3 KENO (green)
1 in 1,655,852 $2,000,000 $20 200 MILLION $ EXTRAORDINAIRE
1 in 2,292,068 $1,000,000 $10 100 MILLION $ FORTUNE
1 in 2,381,295 $50,000 $3 QUEST FOR GOLD CROSSWORD
1 in 3,109,938 $500,000 $10 CLASSIC RUBY
1 in 3,640,784 $1,350,000 $4 DOUBLE CASH FOR LIFE
1 in 3,936,250 $67,500 $2 CASH FOR LIFE
Available grand prizes (by the amount):
$2,000,000 $20 200 MILLION $ EXTRAORDINAIRE 1 in 1,655,852
$1,350,000 $4 DOUBLE CASH FOR LIFE 1 in 3,640,784
$1,000,000 $10 100 MILLION $ FORTUNE 1 in 2,292,068
$500,000 $10 CLASSIC RUBY 1 in 3,109,938
$250,000 $10 BEJEWELED 1 in 501,000
$250,000 $10 CADILLAC RICHES 1 in 1,014,426
$100,000 $5 20X THE MONEY 1 in 405,079
$100,000 $5 SILVER & GOLD 1 in 471,439
$100,000 $5 WINNER TAKE ALL 1 in 487,200
$100,000 $5 HIT THE JACKPOT 1 in 493,818
$100,000 $5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER 1 in 544,338
$100,000 $5 MONEY MULTIPLIER 1 in 576,933
$77,777 $5 DIAMOND 7s 1 in 158,375
$75,000 $3 FRUIT EXPLOSION 1 in 534,333
$75,000 $3 15X THE MONEY 1 in 625,333
$67,500 $2 CASH FOR LIFE 1 in 3,936,250
$50,000 $3 BINGO 1 in 670,400
$50,000 $3 KENO (purple) 1 in 980,000
$50,000 $3 SUPER BINGO 1 in 1,086,981
$50,000 $3 KENO (green) 1 in 1,246,710
$50,000 $3 QUEST FOR GOLD CROSSWORD 1 in 2,381,295
$35,000 $2 10X THE MONEY 1 in 901,385
$10,000 $1 CROSSWORD EXPRESS 1 in 416,000
$10,000 $1 5X THE MONEY 1 in 480,804
$10,000 $1 BINGO EXPRESS 1 in 585,118
$10,000 $1 $10,000 SPIN 1 in 693,333
Odds to win $50,000+
ReplyDelete$5 DIAMOND 7s 1 in 158,375
2 x $77,777
$10 BEJEWELED 1 in 250,500
1 x $250,000 - 1 x $50,000
$5 SILVER & GOLD 1 in 336,742
5 x $100,000 - 2 x $76,100
$5 20X THE MONEY 1 in 405,079
5 x $100,000
$5 WINNER TAKE ALL 1 in 487,200
2 x $100,000
$5 HIT THE JACKPOT 1 in 493,818
1 x $100,000
$10 CADILLAC RICHES 1 in 507,213
2 x $250,000 - 2 x $100,000
$20 200 MILLION $ EXTRAORDINAIRE 1 in 517,454
5 x $2,000,000 - 11 x $200,000
$3 FRUIT EXPLOSION 1 in 534,333
1 x $75,000
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER 1 in 544,338
4 x $100,000
$5 MONEY MULTIPLIER 1 in 576,933
1 x $100,000
$3 15X THE MONEY 1 in 625,333
3 x $75,000
$3 BINGO 1 in 670,400
7 x $50,000
$10 100 MILLION $ FORTUNE 1 in 705,252
4 x $1,000,000 - 2 x $100,000 - 7 x $50,000
$3 KENO (purple) 1 in 980,000
5 x $50,000
$10 CLASSIC RUBY 1 in 1,036,646
1 x $500,000 - 2 x $50,000
$3 SUPER BINGO 1 in 1,086,981
9 x $50,000
$3 KENO (green) 1 in 1,246,710
1 x $50,000
$4 DOUBLE CASH FOR LIFE 1 in 1,820,392
1 x $1,350,000 - 1 x $50,000
$3 QUEST FOR GOLD CROSSWORD 1 in 2,381,295
3 x $50,000
$2 CASH FOR LIFE 1 in 3,936,250
1 x $67,500
Odds to win $5,000+
$10 BEJEWELED 1 in 71,571
$3 WORDS WITH FRIENDS 1 in 108,915
$3 WHEEL OF FORTUNE 1 in 128,872
$3 FRUIT EXPLOSION 1 in 133,583
$5 MONEY MULTIPLIER 1 in 144,233
$5 DIAMOND 7s 1 in 158,375
$10 100 MILLION $ FORTUNE 1 in 199,310
$3 CASHINGO 1 in 201,025
$3 BINGO 1 in 213,309
$3 15X THE MONEY 1 in 234,500
$5 20X THE MONEY 1 in 253,174
$5 SILVER & GOLD 1 in 261,911
$20 200 MILLION $ EXTRAORDINAIRE 1 in 306,639
$10 CADILLAC RICHES 1 in 338,142
$3 SUPER BINGO 1 in 391,313
$1 CROSSWORD EXPRESS 1 in 416,000
$3 QUEST FOR GOLD CROSSWORD 1 in 420,229
$1 5X THE MONEY 1 in 480,804
$5 WINNER TAKE ALL 1 in 487,200
$3 KENO (purple) 1 in 490,000
$5 HIT THE JACKPOT 1 in 493,818
$10 CLASSIC RUBY 1 in 518,323
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER 1 in 544,338
$1 BINGO EXPRESS 1 in 585,118
$3 KENO (green) 1 in 623,355
$1 $10,000 SPIN 1 in 693,333
$2 10X THE MONEY 1 in 901,385
$4 DOUBLE CASH FOR LIFE 1 in 1,820,392
$2 CASH FOR LIFE 1 in 3,936,250
Odds to win $1,000+
$10 BEJEWELED 1 in 16,161
$10 CLASSIC RUBY 1 in 17,088
$5 MONEY MULTIPLIER 1 in 22,190
$10 CADILLAC RICHES 1 in 22,295
$5 WINNER TAKE ALL 1 in 25,642
$20 200 MILLION $ EXTRAORDINAIRE 1 in 26,707
$3 FRUIT EXPLOSION 1 in 31,431
$3 WHEEL OF FORTUNE 1 in 36,820
$5 20X THE MONEY 1 in 45,009
$5 HIT THE JACKPOT 1 in 49,382
$4 DOUBLE CASH FOR LIFE 1 in 70,015
$2 CASH FOR LIFE 1 in 96,006
$3 15X THE MONEY 1 in 98,737
$3 WORDS WITH FRIENDS 1 in 108,915
$10 100 MILLION $ FORTUNE 1 in 129,131
$2 10X THE MONEY 1 in 150,231
$5 DIAMOND 7s 1 in 158,375
$3 CASHINGO 1 in 201,025
$3 KENO (green) 1 in 207,785
$3 BINGO 1 in 213,309
$3 KENO (purple) 1 in 245,000
$5 SILVER & GOLD 1 in 261,911
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER 1 in 362,892
$3 SUPER BINGO 1 in 391,313
$1 CROSSWORD EXPRESS 1 in 416,000
$3 QUEST FOR GOLD CROSSWORD 1 in 420,229
$1 5X THE MONEY 1 in 480,804
$1 BINGO EXPRESS 1 in 585,118
$2 BLACKJACK DOUBLER 1 in 598,983
$1 $10,000 SPIN 1 in 693,333
Odds to win $250+
ReplyDelete$5 HIT THE JACKPOT 1 in 1,241
$5 WINNER TAKE ALL 1 in 2,692
$5 MONEY MULTIPLIER 1 in 4,338
$10 CADILLAC RICHES 1 in 6,223
$10 BEJEWELED 1 in 7,828
$3 15X THE MONEY 1 in 8,527
$20 200 MILLION $ EXTRAORDINAIRE 1 in 9,451
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER 1 in 9,550
$3 CASHINGO 1 in 10,051
$10 CLASSIC RUBY 1 in 10,687
$2 10X THE MONEY 1 in 14,538
$5 DIAMOND 7s 1 in 15,838
$5 20X THE MONEY 1 in 18,929
$3 FRUIT EXPLOSION 1 in 31,431
$3 WHEEL OF FORTUNE 1 in 36,820
$4 DOUBLE CASH FOR LIFE 1 in 46,677
$2 CASH FOR LIFE 1 in 49,203
$10 100 MILLION $ FORTUNE 1 in 71,627
$5 SILVER & GOLD 1 in 84,186
$1 5X THE MONEY 1 in 104,523
$3 WORDS WITH FRIENDS 1 in 108,915
$3 KENO (green) 1 in 207,785
$3 BINGO 1 in 213,309
$3 KENO (purple) 1 in 245,000
$3 SUPER BINGO 1 in 391,313
$1 CROSSWORD EXPRESS 1 in 416,000
$3 QUEST FOR GOLD CROSSWORD 1 in 420,229
$1 BINGO EXPRESS 1 in 585,118
$2 BLACKJACK DOUBLER 1 in 598,983
$1 $10,000 SPIN 1 in 693,333
Odds to win $100+
$10 BEJEWELED 1 in 146
$10 CADILLAC RICHES 1 in 158
$10 CLASSIC RUBY 1 in 246
$5 20X THE MONEY 1 in 423
$5 MONEY MULTIPLIER 1 in 463
$5 WINNER TAKE ALL 1 in 687
$2 FAST $200s 1 in 800
$5 SILVER & GOLD 1 in 1,045
$5 HIT THE JACKPOT 1 in 1,193
$5 DIAMOND 7s 1 in 1,195
$20 200 MILLION $ EXTRAORDINAIRE 1 in 1,268
$10 100 MILLION $ FORTUNE 1 in 1,377
$3 15X THE MONEY 1 in 1,420
$3 FRUIT EXPLOSION 1 in 1,659
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER 1 in 2,208
$3 BINGO 1 in 2,321
$3 WHEEL OF FORTUNE 1 in 2,603
$3 WORDS WITH FRIENDS 1 in 3,025
$3 QUEST FOR GOLD CROSSWORD 1 in 3,471
$3 SUPER BINGO 1 in 4,327
$2 10X THE MONEY 1 in 5,036
$3 KENO (green) 1 in 6,776
$3 KENO (purple) 1 in 6,806
$4 DOUBLE CASH FOR LIFE 1 in 8,752
$3 CASHINGO 1 in 10,051
$2 BLACKJACK DOUBLER 1 in 13,021
$1 $10,000 SPIN 1 in 19,439
$2 CASH FOR LIFE 1 in 49,203
$1 5X THE MONEY 1 in 55,907
$1 CROSSWORD EXPRESS 1 in 416,000
$1 BINGO EXPRESS 1 in 585,118
Odds to win $50+
$20 200 MILLION $ EXTRAORDINAIRE 1 in 14
$10 CADILLAC RICHES 1 in 18
$10 BEJEWELED 1 in 33
$10 100 MILLION $ FORTUNE 1 in 37
$10 CLASSIC RUBY 1 in 49
$5 MONEY MULTIPLIER 1 in 177
$5 20X THE MONEY 1 in 192
$5 SILVER & GOLD 1 in 354
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER 1 in 396
$3 15X THE MONEY 1 in 521
$5 DIAMOND 7s 1 in 544
$5 WINNER TAKE ALL 1 in 612
$2 FAST $200s 1 in 673
$5 HIT THE JACKPOT 1 in 789
$3 BINGO 1 in 799
$3 CASHINGO 1 in 854
$3 SUPER BINGO 1 in 1,144
$3 QUEST FOR GOLD CROSSWORD 1 in 1,214
$3 FRUIT EXPLOSION 1 in 1,659
$1 CROSSWORD EXPRESS 1 in 1,990
$4 DOUBLE CASH FOR LIFE 1 in 2,090
$3 WORDS WITH FRIENDS 1 in 2,293
$2 CASH FOR LIFE 1 in 2,378
$2 10X THE MONEY 1 in 2,511
$3 WHEEL OF FORTUNE 1 in 2,603
$1 BINGO EXPRESS 1 in 3,154
$3 KENO (green) 1 in 6,776
$3 KENO (purple) 1 in 6,806
$2 BLACKJACK DOUBLER 1 in 6,807
$1 5X THE MONEY 1 in 13,816
$1 $10,000 SPIN 1 in 19,439
Odds to win your ticket price back:
ReplyDelete$10 CADILLAC RICHES 1 in 6.10
$3 FRUIT EXPLOSION 1 in 6.83
$3 WHEEL OF FORTUNE 1 in 6.89
$2 FAST $200s 1 in 6.90
$10 CLASSIC RUBY 1 in 6.96
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER 1 in 7.37
$3 CASHINGO 1 in 7.57
$3 WORDS WITH FRIENDS 1 in 7.78
$3 SUPER BINGO 1 in 7.81
$3 QUEST FOR GOLD CROSSWORD 1 in 7.89
$1 BINGO EXPRESS 1 IN 7.94
$3 KENO (purple) 1 in 8.00
$3 KENO (green) 1 in 8.00
$3 BINGO 1 Iin 8.28
$2 BLACKJACK DOUBLER 1 in 8.33
$10 BEJEWELED 1 in 8.36
$3 15X THE MONEY 1 in 8.65
$1 $10,000 SPIN 1 in 8.70
$1 5X THE MONEY 1 in 9.01
$2 10X THE MONEY 1 in 9.03
$5 20X THE MONEY 1 in 9.03
$5 WINNER TAKE ALL 1 IN 9.79
$20 200 MILLION $ EXTRAORDINAIRE 1 in 9.98
$1 CROSSWORD EXPRESS 1 in 9.98
$2 CASH FOR LIFE 1 in 10.00
$4 DOUBLE CASH FOR LIFE 1 in 10.16
$5 DIAMOND 7s 1 in 10.45
$5 MONEY MULTIPLIER 1 in 10.47
$10 100 MILLION $ FORTUNE 1 in 10.48
$5 HIT THE JACKPOT 1 in 10.91
$5 SILVER & GOLD 1 in 13.02
Rating to win 2x-5x your $ or better:
$5 WINNER TAKE ALL 78/100
$5 HIT THE JACKPOT 77/100
$5 SILVER & GOLD 71/100
$3 WHEEL OF FORTUNE 64/100
$5 MONEY MULTIPLIER 63/100
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER 62/100
$2 CASH FOR LIFE 60/100
$1 5X THE MONEY 58/100
$2 BLACKJACK DOUBLER 57/100
$10 CLASSIC RUBY 56/100
$5 DIAMOND 7s 55/100
$5 20X THE MONEY 54/100
$3 FRUIT EXPLOSION 53/100
$3 QUEST FOR GOLD CROSSWORD 52/100
$10 CADILLAC RICHES 51/100
$3 SUPER BINGO 50/100
$1 10,000$ SPIN 50/100
$10 100 MILLION$ FORTUNE 49/100
$3 KENO (green) 48/100
$3 15X THE MONEY 47/100
$3 KENO (purple) 46/100
$3 BINGO 45/100
$2 10X THE MONEY 38/100
$10 BEJEWELED 31/100
$1 BINGO EXPRESS 28/100
$1 CROSSWORD EXPRESS 27/100
$4 DOUBLE CASH FOR LIFE 26/100
$2 FAST $200s 25/100
$20 200 MILLION$ EXTRAORDINAIRE 24/100
$3 WORDS WITH FRIENDS 23/100
$3 CASHINGO 22/100
Odds of winning any prize:
$20 200 MILLION $ EXTRAORDINAIRE 1 in 3.00
$3 WHEEL OF FORTUNE 1 in 3.03
$3 CASHINGO 1 in 3.24
$3 SUPER BINGO 1 in 3.25
$3 WORDS WITH FRIENDS 1 in 3.27
$10 CADILLAC RICHES 1 in 3.28
$10 100 MILLION $ FORTUNE 1 in 3.28
$10 CLASSIC RUBY 1 in 3.30
$10 BEJEWELED 1 in 3.32
$1 CROSSWORD EXPRESS 1 in 3.35
$3 FRUIT EXPLOSION 1 in 3.37
$3 KENO (green) 1 in 3.40
$3 KENO (purple) 1 in 3.40
$3 BINGO 1 in 3.45
$2 10X THE MONEY 1 in 3.65
$2 FAST $200s 1 in 3.69
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER 1 in 3.70
$4 DOUBLE CASH FOR LIFE 1 in 3.70
$1 $10,000 SPIN 1 in 3.83
$1 BINGO EXPRESS 1 in 3.83
$3 15X THE MONEY 1 in 3.86
$5 DIAMOND 7s 1 in 3.86
$2 BLACKJACK DOUBLER 1 in 3.87
$3 QUEST FOR GOLD CROSSWORD 1 in 3.87
$5 20X THE MONEY 1 in 3.96
$1 5X THE MONEY 1 in 3.97
$2 CASH FOR LIFE 1 in 3.97
$5 MONEY MULTIPLIER 1 in 4.06
$5 SILVER & GOLD 1 in 4.08
$5 HIT THE JACKPOT 1 in 4.40
$5 WINNER TAKE ALL 1 IN 4.59
I guess I'll start it off. in the past I typically will choose:
ReplyDeleteB) Avoid the machine as the chances of hitting the jackpot twice is almost zero, squared.
That said, I don't play many slots outside of the theme'd ones like Monopoly, Willy Wonka, Wheel of Fortune, etc. Mostly I am playing BJ.
To contrast this all, the GF has unbelievably good luck at Flaming 7's where she will sit down and win over and over. Last fall she sat at a row of 4 machines, would win $50 or $100 right away at the first, move to the second, win on the 2nd or 3rd pull, move to the 3rd and same thing, then the 4th and same thing. Can't explain it but sure did enjoy being ahead of the game.
@Doug: "Twenty-two of the suckers contained six winners totaling $58." 27.3% and 52.7%. Without "enhanced" luck on either side, close to the expected SPPB of 24.4% & 53.5%. Still, worth the try. That's the Collateral Damage when you're The Running Man on a Scavenger Hunt before the Total Recall.
ReplyDeleteSo I was waiting in line behind a lady who INSISTED on winning that day (see below) with a friend of the retailer close by... "Two poker... ... two more... ... again!... ... again!! (with a rising tone as if that's supposed to help)... < nothing>... but before she gathers her slips the retailer's friend jumps in and asks for the couple of poker believing it's now due.
Great moons of Jupiter! Buddy, the lady's losses didn't reduce the odds from 649k-to-1 to (649k-8)-to-1. Your odds are still 649k-to-1.... Nah-nah-nah-nah-nah!!!
The answer is D) Head to the bar. Hmmm, what was the question again?
Current Top Rated Games:
ReplyDelete1 - $10 CADILLAC RICHES 77/100
2 - $10 BEJEWELED 72/100
3 - $10 CLASSIC RUBY 71/100
4 - $5 MONEY MULTIPLIER 68/100
5 - $5 WINNER TAKE ALL 67/100
6 - $3 FRUIT EXPLOSION 66/100
7 - $5 20X THE MONEY 64/100
8 - $3 WHEEL OF FORTUNE 63/100
9 - $5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER 61/100
10 - $5 HIT THE JACKPOT 60/100
11 - $5 DIAMOND 7s 59/100
12 - $20 200 MILLION$ EXTRAORDINAIRE 58/100
13 - $5 SILVER & GOLD 56/100
14 - $10 100 MILLION$ FORTUNE 55/100
15 - $3 15X THE MONEY 54/100
16 - $3 SUPER BINGO 47/100
17 - $3 BINGO 46/100
18 - $3 CASHINGO 42/100
19 - $3 WORDS WITH FRIENDS 41/100
20 - $3 QUEST FOR GOLD CROSSWORD 39/100
21 - $2 CASH FOR LIFE 37/100
22 - $3 KENO (green) 36/100
23 - $3 KENO (purple) 35/100
24 - $2 10X THE MONEY 32/100
25 - $1 5X THE MONEY 31/100
26 - $4 DOUBLE CASH FOR LIFE 30/100
27 - $2 FAST $200s 29/100
28 - $2 BLACKJACK DOUBLER 25/100
29 - $1 CROSSWORD EXPRESS 24/100
30 - $1 10,000$ SPIN 21/100
31 - $1 BINGO EXPRESS 20/100
Current Top Rated Games (by ticket price):
$20 200 MILLION$ EXTRAORDINAIRE 58/100
$10 CADILLAC RICHES 77/100
$10 BEJEWELED 72/100
$10 CLASSIC RUBY 71/100
$10 100 MILLION$ FORTUNE 55/100
$5 MONEY MULTIPLIER 68/100
$5 WINNER TAKE ALL 67/100
$5 20X THE MONEY 64/100
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER 61/100
$5 HIT THE JACKPOT 60/100
$5 DIAMOND 7s 59/100
$5 SILVER & GOLD 56/100
$4 DOUBLE CASH FOR LIFE 30/100
$3 FRUIT EXPLOSION 66/100
$3 WHEEL OF FORTUNE 63/100
$3 15X THE MONEY 54/100
$3 SUPER BINGO 47/100
$3 BINGO 46/100
$3 CASHINGO 42/100
$3 WORDS WITH FRIENDS 41/100
$3 QUEST FOR GOLD CROSSWORD 39/100
$3 KENO (green) 36/100
$3 KENO (purple) 35/100
$2 CASH FOR LIFE 37/100
$2 10X THE MONEY 32/100
$2 FAST $200s 29/100
$2 BLACKJACK DOUBLER 25/100
$1 5X THE MONEY 31/100
$1 CROSSWORD EXPRESS 24/100
$1 10,000$ SPIN 21/100
$1 BINGO EXPRESS 20/100
Re: Doug's Question:
ReplyDeleteNow that I'm lucid...
I would usually... B) Avoid the machine as the chances of hitting the jackpot twice is almost zero, squared. This is human nature. And yes, if the top prize for a particular instant game was sold by my usual retailer, I would instinctively avoid it as well, at least for a period of time.
However, modern slots run on a RNG (Random Number Generator) so in reality, no matter when you spin, the same universe of outcomes lay before you. Your odds are exactly the same as the previous spin. The machine is neither hot nor cold in this respect.
I guess the answer would first be C) Head to the bar to see if you can't find the lucky winner celebrating and assess if you can pick his pocket. Failing that, go back to the gaming area and play your favourite slot.
TmF
So what is the difference between slot machines (in general) and instant games? Well, with a Class 3 slot machine which has an RNG, each spin is independent. The "universe of possible outcomes" is the same each time/spin whether for the same player playing for a period of time or for the next player or the next. In Doug's question, if this wasn't the case, the machine which just paid a jackpot would remain untouched for a long period of time (since knowledge of the payout would get around) and fail to generate revenue in the foreseeable future.
DeleteInstant games, like horse racing betting and class 2 slot machines are parimutuel betting games. The odds change depending on the bets and results of others. I believe that's the initial main idea behind this blog. To take advantage of games that have reduced floats in the hopes of winning a major prize due to the improved odds. Yes, some slot machines in certain jurisdictions are programmed and linked together in this manner. You can I.D. them since they usually have a 'bingo' style card located somewhere on the screen.
Tommy,
DeleteI'm intrigued by your reference to different "classes" of slot machines. Can you expand on that point?
Doug
There are certain jurisdictions that don't allow casino gaming, like New York state, where casinos are located and run by sovereign native communities. With tight budgets, this is changing.
DeleteIn the meantime, in order to provide slot gaming to the public the slot machines have to be linked together to perform like, say, a bingo game or an instant game where other players' wins affect your outcomes. You can see an example of a class 2 slot machine by doing a video search on YouTube.
I believe we only have class 3 (each with its own RNG) slot machines in Ontario. In this case, you are basically playing against the machine and your results are independent of other players.
TmF
I hit $150 on a poker all in this past weekend in Toronto. While I was there I found a wild 10s card and won $20!
ReplyDeleteI also found an old Prestige.... However, when I went to go scan it, it said that I needed to see retailer...I checked the back of the ticket and it said prizes had to be claimed by April something. Who is at fault? Should I try and get reimbursed?
Trying my luck on regular bingo, better odds then super bingo even though super comes with two more play areas....reg bingo has 7 grand prizes left with 1.5million tickets left in the float where Super Bingo has close to 10 million in the float and 9 grand prizes remaining.
Congrats on your wins. Yes, that's the one thing Bingo has going for it over Super Bingo so if you're aiming for the top prize (only) then that's the way to go between those two games.
DeleteHannibal Lecter (nasty fellow)... no, Caveat Lector ("let the reader beware")... no, Caveat Emptor ("let the buyer beware")... sigh... yes. You can try to get reimbursed and I wish you good luck but don't be surprised if the retailer plays dumb and refuses.
In a conversation I had once at the OLG call centre, the agent informed me that the toughest calls they get are from people with expired winning tickets. I think that you'll find that the OLG has closed the accounting and added the final profit to its ledger. Keep us informed as to what happens, Dan.
DeleteDoug
$3 Quest For Gold now has only 1 grand prize remaining - the odds to win it are now an insane 1 in 6.73 MILLION! - other odds: 1 in 518,000! to win more than $100 and 1 in 1,215 to win more than $25.
ReplyDeleteGreat Zeus! Even the gods on Mt. Olympus concede you'd be better off taking your chances in the Labyrinth with the Minotaur (ie. 6/49)!
DeleteTmF
Having two $25 wins recently on qfg, I guess I'll count myself as lucky, but that grand prize would have been more helpful. As it stands, they promptly got the $50 back. No major wins but I am still churning it over. I'll check in after this next batch of little wins is exchanged.
DeleteWith a maximum payback of 70% on instant games, it's unlikely anyone here will end up on the plus side in the long run unless he/she manages to win a grand prize. We're all here just trying to find ways to improve our chances and maybe even have some fun and "anticipatory excitement" along the way.
DeleteWith #3018 Super Bingo (SB) having a SPPB (125 games) of 1-in-3.29 and 60.091% and with the upcoming #3209 Crossword (127 games) at 1-in-3.86 and 60.189%, I find them comparable to QFG but without the 1-in-6.7M+ odds against winning a grand prize so it's time for me to move on from QFG.
Final results on my QFG experiment... 74 games... 19 hits or 25.7% vs. SPPB (Small Prize Pay Back) expectations of 25.7%... for $181 or 81.5% vs. SPPB expectations of 61.6%. Helping my results were three $25 winners and four $15 winners, slightly above average but all of which I attribute to luck.
GLTA, no matter which games you play.
TmF
Games are usually removed from the OLG unclaimed prize page one month after a ticket activation end date - $3 Words With Friends + $5 Diamond 7's are then due to end this Monday - other games nearing the end are: $1 Crossword Express + $3 Cashingo on June 8th, $3 Wheel Of Fortune + $5 Hit The Jackpot on June 15th and $2 Blackjack Doubler + $2 Cash For Life on June 22nd (thanks go to Darth for his pack report info).
ReplyDeleteA game can end early as OLG policy is supposed to be for immediate removal of a game that has all $100,000 or + prizes claimed - this would mean current games at risk would be $4 Double Cash For Life, $5 Money Multiplier, $10 Bejeweled and $10 Classic Ruby.
CL66,
ReplyDeleteJust to confirm, anyone can call the OLG to obtain a game status on any game that remains active even if it is no longer listed on the O/S prize list. Correct? In my experience, the OLG can stretch the meaning of the word "immediate". I've seen such games remain on the list for 2-3 weeks.
I don't buy the OLG rationale for delineating between games with $100,000 of greater Grand Prizes from the others. They say that market research indicates that people who buy tickets for games with Grand Prizes of less than $100,000 don't care if there are no prizes left. I don't agree with that and could propose a more sinister theory.
Doug
I bought the last 11 Diamond 7 at Rabba by Mississauga Celebration Square and it returned only $10
ReplyDelete18% return
Ouch. Even with improved odds, it's not easy. Thanks for reporting your results. Hope you have better luck next time.
DeleteTmF
I was also at Shoppers World Brampton later that day went to this tobacco shop and bought last 3 Diamond 7, nothing just added insult to my injury
DeleteOn the OLG Instant Games page, 4 new tickets are now listed: $3 CROSSWORD (yellow), $3 TETRIS, $5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER (blue) and $10 CLASSIC WHITE 2 - expect these games to be available Monday - there are 2 games set to retire then which would bring the total number of scratch tickets being offered to 33, which is the most i have ever tracked - most retailers i think, don't have enough space to be able to offer all of them, so you might end up having to frequent more than 1 place to get your favourites next week - once i have "crunched the numbers" on these new games, i`ll post a review of them.
ReplyDeleteDoug,
ReplyDeleteIf the "rule" is immediate deactivation of a game with $100,000 or + prizes all being claimed - and assuming the "rule" of one month after this date it is removed from the unclaimed prize page (UPP) - then i can find no instance of any game defying this - within the records i have kept since August 31, 2014 - from now till then there have been 6 instances of this and all were removed from the "UPP" (retired) at near exactly one month after the last $100,000 or + prize was claimed - this appears to then confirm this ""when 100k+$ are all gone a game gets closed" - we know games with under 100k$ grand prizes, that were all claimed, were listed longer than one month (after it's last top prize was claimed) on the "UPP", so this also appears to confirm this ""when 100k+$ are ..." - I totally agree that there should not be preferential treatment to games with 100k$+ prizes - i beleive the rules should be equally applied to all games - i think all games should be immediately be deactived upon all it's grand prizes being claimed - a grand prize is what we all like knowing we have a chance at when we buy a ticket, it's advertised boldly on every ticket, so it's almost false advertising if there are no grand prizes actually available - i do beleive the OLG should be allowed a grace period in which to retire the game thereafter, although 2 weeks i feel is more reasonable than one month - time to allow OLG reps to physically reclaim tickets - i don't fault them entirely, as retailers are to blame in part, as they may be of a "sell any ticket if someone will buy it" attitude - ticket buyers themselves are also to blame in part, as the majority of them buy with wishfull intent and/or little to no factual insight, they also may be oblivious to the info the OLG does make available on it's products.
From last nights Lotto Max. "The jackpot, one of the biggest in Canadian history has many flocking to corner stores to pick up tickets. According to OLG over a thousand tickets per minute were being sold today across the country."
ReplyDeleteHow did no one win this jackpot once again...what I don't understand...is that next Friday's jackpot is still 50million +50 max millions even though no one had won the main jackpot. Shouldn't the max million prizes keep increasing...not stay the same. Only 21 of the 50 max millions were won. They seriously need to change something about this lottery game...perhaps make the max millions GUARANTEED WINNERS or change how the pools funds are distributed throughout. Those 1 in 30 million odds to win the main jackpot or max millions is absolutely sickening. I woke up in a bad mood today....rant over.
"How did no one win this jackpot once again..."
DeleteTo answer this, you need sales data which as Darth mentions below, is available on the Loto Quebec website. Total sales were $75,926,135. Since each ticket costs $5, there were 15,852,27 tickets sold.
The odds of one ticket (3 combinations) hitting are 1-in-28,633,528. The number of tickets participating in the draw doesn't guarantee a win. This doesn't mean there couldn't be a winner. This also doesn't account for duplicate (or more) combinations.
My cousin was mentioning that he had gotten an advertising email on the net about LottoMax being increased to 60 million from 50 and then adding on MaxMillions (don't recall this being mentioned here, but I haven't caught up yet so forgive me if it's old news). This is from the OLG website:LOTTO MAX jackpots are getting bigger! Beginning with the draw on July 17, 2015, the Main Jackpot will be able to reach $60 million instead of the current $50 million.
DeletePresumably this would help alleviate that problem, but then all they are doing is shaving % of the jackpot from the 4/7, 5/7 and 6/7 winners so I doubt it.
I have to buy more tickets than usual, again? Sigh.
ReplyDeleteI'm thinking that they estimate another 21 million dollars will be added to the pool for the upcoming draw. Last week it was 33 maxmills + 17 maxmills estimated to give us 50. This week it would be 29 maxmills + 21 maxmills estimate.
Of course I'm assuming that they don't alter their sales-money-to-pool percent.
According to lotto Quebec which has a nice breakdown on sales figures and where prizes were won ..they say:
Delete$76 million in sales..
Ontario winners included 12 maxmillions, although a few of those were divided between other's who also had the same number. And we had 1 winner of 6+bonus for $319k.
According to the new math I've learned recently my $25 ticket for last night lotto max gave me 5.66 million to 1 odds. .lol..
85m÷15 lines=5.66 m
..or my odds on hitting one of the max millions were 113 thousand to 1
(85m÷50 maxmillions)÷15 lines =113,333 to 1
The odds certainly sound better using creative math..lol.
..anyhoo I won $0 ..but shall throw another $25 at it next Friday,
I also thought there should be more maxmillions for next weekend. .GL everyone
"odds on hitting one of the max millions were 113 thousand to 1
ReplyDelete(85m÷50 maxmillions)÷15 lines =113,333 to 1"
I'm not a math wiz but I feel like this is not right. I myself went through this and concluded like this but after a bit of thinking I felt that it's flawed.
Assume 1 ticket (3 lines). Chance of hitting the jackpot is 85m to 3 or 28m to 1. Now there are 50 other lines that your 3 lines can match. So what I came down to was that it's more like (85m - 1) to 3 at hitting a maxmillion line. Does this make sense??
Nah..I'm no math whiz either but I still cant get over that 3 tries at 85m-to 1 can equate down to 28m to 1. .lol..so I figured my $25 ticket equates down to 5.66 m to 1. .
DeleteI'm likely wrong on my equation on fifty prizes at 85m-to 1 each then ÷by my $25 ticket which has 15 lines coming out at 113k to 1.
..It just amuses me how numbers can be manipulated to make them sound better. Kinda reminds me of the creative book keeping Nortel had back years ago.All of us with canadian equity mutual funds felt that sting..just playing with numbers..
Here's one for Tommy..lol..
can you explain the odds on this for me?.
50 maxmillions draws at 85m-to 1 per draw and having a $25 ticket which has 15 lines or chances..
thnx
I will explain the oddity using a sports analogy even though I know nothing about sports!
DeleteImagine you're on a hockey field... there's one player in front of you from the opposing team (ie. the draw combination). There are 28,633,528 of his co-players behind you (ie. potential combinations) to which he can throw the ball. You alone (1 ticket or 3 lines, same thing) have to cover all 28,633,528 players. A daunting task. If I gave your team 9 other players, -each- of you now only have to cover 2,863,353 opposing players. The number has dropped 25,770,175 (28,633,528 to 2,863,353) on an -absolute- basis which looks like a big drop but it's really 1/10th of the original odds. Why? Because we've increased the number of players on your team (ie. combinations) 10-fold, from 1 to 10. Increase your players/combinations 20-fold, odds become 1/20th of the original, 100-fold, 1/100th of the original, etc.. If there are 1000 players on your team, each of you only have to cover 28,633 opposing players. I hope this helps to visualize what's going on.
The other area of confusion is how to approach Lotto Max odds. Yes, the odds are 85M-to-1 for one combination but since you must buy 3 combinations at a time, your 1 ticket carries odds of 28,633,528 (85M dividend by 3). It helps to decide ahead of time whether to calculate using lines (ie. a single combination) or tickets (ie. 3 combinations). I prefer to use tickets since I must buy 3 combinations at a time. Thus the odds of my single $5 ticket winning are 28,633,528-to-1.
Your 15 lines or $25 ticket is the same as if you bought 5 separate $5 tickets. If the odds of a single ticket winning are 28,633,528-to-1 then the odds of you winning with your 5 tickets are now 1-in-5,726,706 (original odds divided by 5).
The odds of you winning a single MaxMillions combination is exactly the same as winning the main draw combination, 28.6M-to-1. With 5 tickets, like above, the odds of you winning a single MMs now becomes 1-in-5,726,706.
Since there are 50 MMs drawn, the odds of your 5 tickets winning 1 of the 50 are 5,726,705.6/50 or 114,534.11-to-1. Why is there a reduction in the odds when the number of MMs goes up? Because you get to participate in more combination draws without paying for them, ie. just using your original purchase. Does it look winnable? Well, let's say you covered the whole 114,534 odds... at $25 each... it would cost you $2,863,350 to win the $1M. It either gets prohibitively expensive or not worth it.
I hope the above helps...
TmF
Thnx Tommy.
DeleteI wasn't real far off on my odds of hitting a maxmillions on a $25 ticket. .still mind boggling numbers but it sure sounds better than 85m-to 1.
..And you lost me somewhat in the formula explanation but in the end I get it...much appreciated ..
You had the right idea. When tickets purchased are multiplied by a factor, odds are divided by the factor.
DeleteTmF
Good analogy TMF, I followed that equation well and understood it. So basically, If you're looking to become an instant millionaire overnight, the 114,534 odds at $25 ticket for Lotto max (50mill + 50 maxmill) seems the best bang for your buck. The Extroardinaire (2 million GP at $20) and Fortune (1 million GP at $10) as I recall had over a 1.2 million to 1 odds for winning the GP.
DeleteOne point should be considered if comparing "bang for your buck"between the maxmillions and the higher priced scratch games is the small prize payback percentage on scratch games should in theory reduce your ticket costs too slightly less than half price.
DeleteI'm not sure the small prize payback percentage on lotto max, but I'm certain it's likely less than 10% because it's the top heavy prizes that get us all excited.
So your $20 scratch should only cost $10 or less and same idea with the $10 scratch games, of course that's playing some volume of tickets and results vary, you could get lucky or crap out on a bad run. .
Bejeweled's last GP is gone, time to avoid this game everyone. Although, this game should have been dropped soon anyways since classic white is coming out.
ReplyDeleteAgree..I'll be getting a pack report over the next couple days, and I expect bejewelled should be a deactivated game..If it's not then I'll call OLG and chew about why diamond 7's is gone and why they're continuing to sell bejewelled.
DeleteBejeweled grand prizes are all claimed
ReplyDeleteIn order to accurately do my review on the 4 new games, i needed to first redo my "number crunch" on all games, so here is an update, tho without an overall rating, that includes these 4 new games:
ReplyDeleteCurrent Scratch Tickets Estimated Odds
(from info on the OLG unclaimed prize page as of 10pm Sunday May 31st)
Odds to win $50,000+:
$5 DIAMOND 7s 1 in 155,750
2 x $77,777
$5 SILVER & GOLD 1 in 307,133
5 x $100,000 - 2 x $76,100
$5 20X THE MONEY 1 in 375,230
5 x $100,000
$5 WINNER TAKE ALL 1 in 464,333
2 x $100,000
$10 BEJEWELED 1 in 477,900
1 x $50,000
$5 HIT THE JACKPOT 1 in 482,454
1 x $100,000
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER (pink) 1 in 492,413
4 x $100,000
$10 CADILLAC RICHES 1 in 495,279
2 x $250,000 - 2 x $100,000
$3 FRUIT EXPLOSION 1 in 534,333
1 x $75,000
$5 MONEY MULTIPLIER 1 in 536,501
1 x $100,000
$20 200 MILLION $ EXTRAORDINAIRE 1 in 548,050
5 x $2,000,000 - 10 x $200,000
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER (blue) 1 in 565,787
15 x $100,000
$3 15X THE MONEY 1 in 570,267
3 x $75,000
$10 CLASSIC WHITE 2 1 in 608,385
7 x $500,000 - 1 x $100,000 - 5 x $50,000
$3 BINGO 1 in 655,600
7 x $50,000
$10 100 MILLION $ FORTUNE 1 in 705,252
4 x $1,000,000 - 2 x $100,000 - 7 x $50,000
$3 KENO (purple) 1 in 957,600
5 x $50,000
$10 CLASSIC RUBY 1 in 1,036,646
1 x $500,000 - 2 x $50,000
$3 SUPER BINGO 1 in 1,056,355
9 x $50,000
$3 KENO (green) 1 in 1,197,682
1 x $50,000
$3 TETRIS 1 in 1,273,300
2 x $75,000
$4 DOUBLE CASH FOR LIFE 1 in 1,734,220
1 x $1,350,000 - 1 x $50,000
$3 CROSSWORD 1 in 2,070,600
10 x $50,000
$2 CASH FOR LIFE 1 in 3,886,423
1 x $67,500
$3 QUEST FOR GOLD CROSSWORD 1 in 6,247,837
1 x $50,000
Odds to win $5,000+:
$10 BEJEWELED 1 in 79,650
$3 WORDS WITH FRIENDS 1 in 105,804
$3 WHEEL OF FORTUNE 1 in 123,268
$3 FRUIT EXPLOSION 1 in 133,583
$5 DIAMOND 7s 1 in 155,750
$5 MONEY MULTIPLIER 1 in 178,834
$3 CASHINGO 1 in 196,350
$10 100 MILLION $ FORTUNE 1 in 199,310
$3 15X THE MONEY 1 in 213,850
$3 BINGO 1 in 218,533
$5 20X THE MONEY 1 in 268,021
$5 SILVER & GOLD 1 in 268,742
$20 200 MILLION $ EXTRAORDINAIRE 1 in 316,183
$10 CADILLAC RICHES 1 in 330,186
$3 SUPER BINGO 1 in 380,288
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER (blue) 1 in 404,133
$1 CROSSWORD EXPRESS 1 in 410,000
$5 WINNER TAKE ALL 1 in 464,333
$10 CLASSIC WHITE 2 1 in 465,235
$3 KENO (purple) 1 in 478,800
$3 QUEST FOR GOLD CROSSWORD 1 in 480,603
$5 HIT THE JACKPOT 1 in 482,454
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER (pink) 1 in 492,413
$3 CROSSWORD 1 in 517,650
$10 CLASSIC RUBY 1 in 518,323
$1 BINGO EXPRESS 1 in 566,882
$3 KENO (green) 1 in 598,841
$1 5X THE MONEY 1 in 601,006
$3 TETRIS 1 in 636,650
$1 $10,000 SPIN 1 in 666,667
$2 10X THE MONEY 1 in 865,236
$4 DOUBLE CASH FOR LIFE 1 in 1,734,220
$2 CASH FOR LIFE 1 in 3,886,423
Odds to win $1,000+:
$10 BEJEWELED 1 in 15,930
$10 CLASSIC RUBY 1 in 17,088
$10 CLASSIC WHITE 2 1 in 18,436
$10 CADILLAC RICHES 1 in 22,260
$5 MONEY MULTIPLIER 1 in 24,386
$5 WINNER TAKE ALL 1 in 25,099
$20 200 MILLION $ EXTRAORDINAIRE 1 in 26,778
$3 WHEEL OF FORTUNE 1 in 35,219
$3 FRUIT EXPLOSION 1 in 41,103
$5 20X THE MONEY 1 in 43,631
$3 TETRIS 1 in 43,907
$5 HIT THE JACKPOT 1 in 48,245
$4 DOUBLE CASH FOR LIFE 1 in 66,701
$3 15X THE MONEY 1 in 90,042
$2 CASH FOR LIFE 1 in 94,791
$3 WORDS WITH FRIENDS 1 in 105,804
$10 100 MILLION $ FORTUNE 1 in 129,131
$2 10X THE MONEY 1 in 152,689
$5 DIAMOND 7s 1 in 155,750
$3 CASHINGO 1 in 196,350
$3 KENO (green) 1 in 199,614
$3 BINGO 1 in 218,533
$3 KENO (purple) 1 in 239,400
$5 SILVER & GOLD 1 in 268,742
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER (blue) 1 in 314,326
$3 SUPER BINGO 1 in 380,288
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER (pink) 1 in 393,930
$1 CROSSWORD EXPRESS 1 in 410,000
$3 QUEST FOR GOLD CROSSWORD 1 in 480,603
$3 CROSSWORD 1 in 517,650
$1 BINGO EXPRESS 1 in 566,882
$2 BLACKJACK DOUBLER 1 in 582,345
$1 5X THE MONEY 1 in 601,006
$1 $10,000 SPIN 1 in 666,667
Odds to win $250+:
ReplyDelete$5 HIT THE JACKPOT 1 in 1,240
$5 WINNER TAKE ALL 1 in 2,653
$5 MONEY MULTIPLIER 1 in 4,471
$10 CADILLAC RICHES 1 in 6,230
$10 BEJEWELED 1 in 8,100
$3 15X THE MONEY 1 in 8,225
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER (blue) 1 in 9,067
$20 200 MILLION $ EXTRAORDINAIRE 1 in 9,460
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER (pink) 1 in 9,608
$3 CASHINGO 1 in 9,984
$10 CLASSIC RUBY 1 in 10,687
$10 CLASSIC WHITE 2 1 in 11,529
$2 10X THE MONEY 1 in 14,501
$3 TETRIS 1 in 15,249
$5 DIAMOND 7s 1 in 15,575
$5 20X THE MONEY 1 in 19,144
$3 WHEEL OF FORTUNE 1 in 35,219
$3 FRUIT EXPLOSION 1 in 41,103
$4 DOUBLE CASH FOR LIFE 1 in 45,637
$2 CASH FOR LIFE 1 in 49,195
$10 100 MILLION $ FORTUNE 1 in 71,627
$5 SILVER & GOLD 1 in 82,690
$3 WORDS WITH FRIENDS 1 in 105,804
$1 5X THE MONEY 1 in 109,274
$3 KENO (green) 1 in 199,614
$3 BINGO 1 in 218,533
$3 KENO (purple) 1 in 239,400
$3 SUPER BINGO 1 in 380,288
$1 CROSSWORD EXPRESS 1 in 410,000
$3 QUEST FOR GOLD CROSSWORD 1 in 480,603
$3 CROSSWORD 1 in 517,650
$1 BINGO EXPRESS 1 in 566,882
$2 BLACKJACK DOUBLER 1 in 582,345
$1 $10,000 SPIN 1 in 666,667
Odds to win $100+:
$10 BEJEWELED 1 in 146
$10 CADILLAC RICHES 1 in 158
$10 CLASSIC RUBY 1 in 246
$10 CLASSIC WHITE 2 1 in 251
$5 20X THE MONEY 1 in 423
$5 MONEY MULTIPLIER 1 in 465
$5 WINNER TAKE ALL 1 in 684
$2 FAST $200s 1 in 800
$5 SILVER & GOLD 1 in 1,046
$5 DIAMOND 7s 1 in 1,193
$5 HIT THE JACKPOT 1 in 1,193
$20 200 MILLION $ EXTRAORDINAIRE 1 in 1,268
$10 100 MILLION $ FORTUNE 1 in 1,377
$3 15X THE MONEY 1 in 1,412
$3 FRUIT EXPLOSION 1 in 1,875
$3 CROSSWORD 1 in 1,992
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER (pink) 1 in 2,203
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER (blue) 1 in 2,207
$3 BINGO 1 in 2,322
$3 WHEEL OF FORTUNE 1 in 2,595
$3 TETRIS 1 in 2,735
$3 WORDS WITH FRIENDS 1 in 3,023
$3 QUEST FOR GOLD CROSSWORD 1 in 3,475
$3 SUPER BINGO 1 in 4,325
$2 10X THE MONEY 1 in 4,992
$3 KENO (green) 1 in 6,767
$3 KENO (purple) 1 in 6,801
$4 DOUBLE CASH FOR LIFE 1 in 8,715
$3 CASHINGO 1 in 9,984
$2 BLACKJACK DOUBLER 1 in 13,235
$1 $10,000 SPIN 1 in 19,417
$2 CASH FOR LIFE 1 in 49,195
$1 5X THE MONEY 1 in 57,239
$1 CROSSWORD EXPRESS 1 in 410,000
$1 BINGO EXPRESS 1 in 566,882
Odds to win $50+:
$20 200 MILLION $ EXTRAORDINAIRE 1 in 14
$10 CADILLAC RICHES 1 in 18
$10 CLASSIC WHITE 2 1 in 18
$10 BEJEWELED 1 in 33
$10 100 MILLION $ FORTUNE 1 in 37
$10 CLASSIC RUBY 1 in 49
$5 MONEY MULTIPLIER 1 in 177
$5 20X THE MONEY 1 in 192
$5 SILVER & GOLD 1 in 356
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER (blue) 1 in 396
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER (pink) 1 in 396
$3 15X THE MONEY 1 in 520
$5 DIAMOND 7s 1 in 544
$5 WINNER TAKE ALL 1 in 609
$2 FAST $200s 1 in 666
$3 CROSSWORD 1 in 666
$3 TETRIS 1 in 781
$5 HIT THE JACKPOT 1 in 788
$3 BINGO 1 in 799
$3 CASHINGO 1 in 854
$3 SUPER BINGO 1 in 1,144
$3 QUEST FOR GOLD CROSSWORD 1 in 1,214
$3 FRUIT EXPLOSION 1 in 1,875
$1 CROSSWORD EXPRESS 1 in 1,990
$4 DOUBLE CASH FOR LIFE 1 in 2,088
$3 WORDS WITH FRIENDS 1 in 2,275
$2 CASH FOR LIFE 1 in 2,378
$2 10X THE MONEY 1 in 2,498
$3 WHEEL OF FORTUNE 1 in 2,595
$1 BINGO EXPRESS 1 in 3,154
$2 BLACKJACK DOUBLER 1 in 6,851
$3 KENO (green) 1 in 6,767
$3 KENO (purple) 1 in 6,801
$1 5X THE MONEY 1 in 13,896
$1 $10,000 SPIN 1 in 19,417
Odds to win your ticket price back:
ReplyDelete$10 CADILLAC RICHES 1 in 6.10
$10 CLASSIC WHITE 2 1 in 6.64
$3 FRUIT EXPLOSION 1 in 6.83
$3 WHEEL OF FORTUNE 1 in 6.89
$2 FAST $200s 1 in 6.90
$10 CLASSIC RUBY 1 in 6.96
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER (blue) 1 in 7.37
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER (pink) 1 in 7.37
$3 CASHINGO 1 in 7.57
$3 TETRIS 1 in 7.78
$3 WORDS WITH FRIENDS 1 in 7.78
$3 SUPER BINGO 1 in 7.81
$3 QUEST FOR GOLD CROSSWORD 1 in 7.89
$1 BINGO EXPRESS 1 IN 7.94
$3 KENO (purple) 1 in 8.00
$3 KENO (green) 1 in 8.00
$3 BINGO 1 Iin 8.28
$2 BLACKJACK DOUBLER 1 in 8.33
$10 BEJEWELED 1 in 8.36
$3 15X THE MONEY 1 in 8.65
$1 $10,000 SPIN 1 in 8.70
$3 CROSSWORD 1 in 8.75
$1 5X THE MONEY 1 in 9.01
$2 10X THE MONEY 1 in 9.03
$5 20X THE MONEY 1 in 9.03
$5 WINNER TAKE ALL 1 IN 9.79
$20 200 MILLION $ EXTRAORDINAIRE 1 in 9.98
$1 CROSSWORD EXPRESS 1 in 9.98
$2 CASH FOR LIFE 1 in 10.00
$4 DOUBLE CASH FOR LIFE 1 in 10.16
$5 DIAMOND 7s 1 in 10.45
$5 MONEY MULTIPLIER 1 in 10.47
$10 100 MILLION $ FORTUNE 1 in 10.48
$5 HIT THE JACKPOT 1 in 10.91
$5 SILVER & GOLD 1 in 13.02
Rating to win 2x-5x your $ or better:
$5 HIT THE JACKPOT 78/100
$5 WINNER TAKE ALL 77/100
$5 SILVER & GOLD 70/100
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER (blue) 66/100
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER (pink) 66/100
$3 WHEEL OF FORTUNE 63/100
$5 MONEY MULTIPLIER 61/100
$3 CROSSWORD 60/100
$2 CASH FOR LIFE 59/100
$5 20X THE MONEY 58/100
$1 5X THE MONEY 56/100
$2 BLACKJACK DOUBLER 56/100
$10 CLASSIC RUBY 56/100
$5 DIAMOND 7s 54/100
$3 QUEST FOR GOLD CROSSWORD 52/100
$10 CADILLAC RICHES 51/100
$1 10,000$ SPIN 51/100
$3 FRUIT EXPLOSION 50/100
$3 SUPER BINGO 50/100
$10 100 MILLION$ FORTUNE 49/100
$10 CLASSIC WHITE 2 49/100
$3 KENO (green) 49/100
$3 15X THE MONEY 47/100
$3 KENO (purple) 46/100
$3 BINGO 46/100
$3 TETRIS 40/100
$2 10X THE MONEY 39/100
$10 BEJEWELED 31/100
$1 BINGO EXPRESS 29/100
$1 CROSSWORD EXPRESS 27/100
$20 200 MILLION$ EXTRAORDINAIRE 25/100
$3 WORDS WITH FRIENDS 25/100
$4 DOUBLE CASH FOR LIFE 25/100
$2 FAST $200s 24/100
$3 CASHINGO 19/100
Odds of winning any prize:
$20 200 MILLION $ EXTRAORDINAIRE 1 in 3.00
$3 WHEEL OF FORTUNE 1 in 3.03
$3 CASHINGO 1 in 3.24
$3 SUPER BINGO 1 in 3.25
$3 WORDS WITH FRIENDS 1 in 3.27
$10 CADILLAC RICHES 1 in 3.28
$10 100 MILLION $ FORTUNE 1 in 3.28
$10 CLASSIC RUBY 1 in 3.30
$10 BEJEWELED 1 in 3.32
$10 CLASSIC WHITE 2 1 in 3.34
$1 CROSSWORD EXPRESS 1 in 3.35
$3 FRUIT EXPLOSION 1 in 3.37
$3 KENO (green) 1 in 3.40
$3 KENO (purple) 1 in 3.40
$3 TETRIS 1 in 3.41
$3 BINGO 1 in 3.45
$2 10X THE MONEY 1 in 3.65
$2 FAST $200s 1 in 3.69
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER (blue) 1 in 3.70
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER (pink) 1 in 3.70
$4 DOUBLE CASH FOR LIFE 1 in 3.70
$1 $10,000 SPIN 1 in 3.83
$1 BINGO EXPRESS 1 in 3.83
$3 CROSSWORD 1 in 3.84
$3 15X THE MONEY 1 in 3.86
$5 DIAMOND 7s 1 in 3.86
$2 BLACKJACK DOUBLER 1 in 3.87
$3 QUEST FOR GOLD CROSSWORD 1 in 3.87
$5 20X THE MONEY 1 in 3.96
$1 5X THE MONEY 1 in 3.97
$2 CASH FOR LIFE 1 in 3.97
$5 MONEY MULTIPLIER 1 in 4.06
$5 SILVER & GOLD 1 in 4.08
$5 HIT THE JACKPOT 1 in 4.40
$5 WINNER TAKE ALL 1 IN 4.59
Found a place with plenty of diamonds, still worth the purchase?
ReplyDeleteIn my opinion, YES.
DeleteAfter some ups and downs...and downs...(and a break from buying) the diamond 7's, I am happy to report a win. I went to my corner variety store for a loaf of bread this morning and to my surprise there were 4 diamond 7's staring up at me! I used restraint and bought only 2. One gave me nothing, but the second delivered a $107 win! And it was a fun one, as you get to be thrilled 5 times with this particular card...what a great way to start the day...and my coffee and toast taste especially good...:):):)
ReplyDeleteI'm pretty sure Lotto Max maxmillions do not get capped but surprise to see it not go past $50. Hopefully it gets reserved for bonus plays in the future as someone mention. Also how does Lottario not go up also after no one won the grand prize. Something doesn't add up, and that includes the grand prize.
ReplyDeleteI found a batch 40 tickets worth of diamond 7 in Fisherville. Nada, return of 50% with only two tickets winning $27.
Current Top Rated Games:
ReplyDelete1 - $10 CADILLAC RICHES 79/100
2 - $10 CLASSIC WHITE 2 72/100
3 - $10 BEJEWELED 71/100
4 - $10 CLASSIC RUBY 70/100
5 - $5 MONEY MULTIPLIER 69/100
6 - $5 WINNER TAKE ALL 68/100
7 - $5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER (blue) 65/100
8 - $5 20X THE MONEY 64/100
9 - $5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER (pink) 63/100
10 - $3 FRUIT EXPLOSION 62/100
11 - $3 WHEEL OF FORTUNE 61/100
12 - $5 HIT THE JACKPOT 60/100
13 - $20 200 MILLION$ EXTRAORDINAIRE 59/100
14 - $5 DIAMOND 7s 58/100
15 - $5 SILVER & GOLD 57/100
16 - $3 15X THE MONEY 55/100
17 - $10 100 MILLION$ FORTUNE 54/100
18 - $3 SUPER BINGO 47/100
19 - $3 TETRIS 46/100
20 - $3 BINGO 45/100
21 - $3 CROSSWORD 43/100
22 - $3 WORDS WITH FRIENDS 42/100
23 - $3 CASHINGO 41/100
24 - $3 QUEST FOR GOLD CROSSWORD 39/100
25 - $3 KENO (green) 38/100
26 - $3 KENO (purple) 37/100
27 - $2 CASH FOR LIFE 35/100
28 - $2 10X THE MONEY 30/100
29 - $4 DOUBLE CASH FOR LIFE 29/100
30 - $2 FAST $200s 27/100
31 - $1 5X THE MONEY 25/100
32 - $2 BLACKJACK DOUBLER 24/100
33 - $1 CROSSWORD EXPRESS 23/100
34 - $1 10,000$ SPIN 22/100
35 - $1 BINGO EXPRESS 19/100
Current Top Rated Games (by ticket price):
$20 200 MILLION$ EXTRAORDINAIRE 59/100
$10 CADILLAC RICHES 79/100
$10 CLASSIC WHITE 2 72/100
$10 BEJEWELED 71/100
$10 CLASSIC RUBY 70/100
$10 100 MILLION$ FORTUNE 54/100
$5 MONEY MULTIPLIER 69/100
$5 WINNER TAKE ALL 68/100
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER (blue) 65/100
$5 20X THE MONEY 64/100
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER (pink) 63/100
$5 HIT THE JACKPOT 60/100
$5 DIAMOND 7s 58/100
$5 SILVER & GOLD 57/100
$4 DOUBLE CASH FOR LIFE 29/100
$3 FRUIT EXPLOSION 62/100
$3 WHEEL OF FORTUNE 61/100
$3 15X THE MONEY 55/100
$3 SUPER BINGO 47/100
$3 TETRIS 46/100
$3 BINGO 45/100
$3 CROSSWORD 43/100
$3 WORDS WITH FRIENDS 42/100
$3 CASHINGO 41/100
$3 QUEST FOR GOLD CROSSWORD 39/100
$3 KENO (green) 38/100
$3 KENO (purple) 37/100
$2 CASH FOR LIFE 35/100
$2 10X THE MONEY 30/100
$2 FAST $200s 27/100
$2 BLACKJACK DOUBLER 24/100
$1 5X THE MONEY 25/100
$1 CROSSWORD EXPRESS 23/100
$1 10,000$ SPIN 22/100
$1 BINGO EXPRESS 19/100
Im interested in seeing your evaluation on classic white..2 things come to mind:
ReplyDeleteWhy do yourate bejewelled so high being no top prizes left?
Without seeing an evaluation on classic white I can't say anything bad but I did notice the overall payout % is the lowest of all $10 tickets at just under 68% which is just slightly higher than some $5 games. .
Anyway thnx for your evaluation although I don't always agree I do find your odds very useful.
Congrats too uplifter on scooping up a nice diamond 7's hit.
I`m working on the reviews still - will post them when done - the reason $10 Bejeweled rates high with me, EVEN without a grand prize, is what it STILL has to offer and how good that fares in my ratings - it rates top 5 in my top 6 "money" categories - many on here are infatuated with grand prizes that they over look other worthy prizes - out of ALL 35 games: $10 Bejeweled rates #5 in winning $50,000+, #1 at $5,000+, #1 at $1,000+, #5 at $250+ and #1 at $100+ - Doug's blog here is probaly the only place where someone can call odds of like 100,000:1 good 0_o lol - i`ve never won a grand prize, probaly never will and i don't know anybody who ever has - i`m a realist who still holds a very slight hope for such tho - just i`d be happy-happy-happy winning just 1k-10k $ ^_^
Delete@Darth: Guess if you're aiming for a top prize, you'll have to keep that in mind.
DeleteA lot depends on your own results and experiences. If, like CL66, you occasionally defeat 1-in-47k odds, you'll see those prizes as attainable and include them or focus on them in your "method".
And it's not a case of believing 100k-to-1 odds are good. They're not. I've even argued that 50k-to-1 is very difficult. It's relative. We're just focusing on different payout aspects to determine which games -might- provide you with a better return. For example, if Doug calculates a game to have 200k-to-1 odds as the relatively better game to snag a top prize and you buy 10 tickets, then the odds have dropped to 20k-to-1.
This mortal (ie. me) has less luck and so I focus on lower level prizes to determine my most likely experience with a particular game, but, I don't ignore top prizes either. In reality, there's an expected value to them, no matter how small the odds of winning. People do win them and it's a case of "you've got to be in it, to win it". If you play any draw games (6/49, Lotto Max, etc.) you're basically adhering to this idea given their odds.
I actually do know a few people who know me (so it's not a case of just having your picture taken beside a celebrity who doesn't know who you are afterwards) who have won the 6/49 as mind-boggling as it may seem.
GLTA no matter which games you play/enjoy.
TmF
Thanks Darth! :) And thanks CL66 for all the updated stats...:) good luck, everyone!
DeleteAnd thank you, TommyMiddleFinger, so being ever-so entertaining...! ;)
DeleteI find a little levity helps sometimes in this world of harsh numbers/odds. And congrats on your nice D7's win. It was... uplifting!
DeleteCL66,
DeleteIn my opinion, the situation with Bejeweled points out the Achilles heel of your approach. You use a standard prize level for most of the measures (I like the 2x to 5x measure best) but you don't take into account the cost of the ticket. If you compare a $10 ticket to a $3 ticket based on the number of $1000 prizes, the $10 game game will come out ahead every time. I'd like to see you incorporate, in some way, a means to level the playing field.
The biggest weakness of my approach is that if the total value of top prizes for any game is extremely poor to begin the game, I don't punish the game in any way. In fact, the game may well get rewarded as the small prize percentage will be higher. The search for the holy grail continues.....
$3 Words With Friends + $5 Diamond 7s are (retired) no longer listed on the OLG unclaimed prize page - exactly one month after their activation end dates -
ReplyDelete$5 Silver & Gold lost a grand prize, 4 of 7 remain - sorry to scoop you Darth, but i was able to get a pack report: $10 Cash Blast is out next Monday - as expected $10 Bejeweled was deactivated after having all it's grand prizes claimed - $10 Cadillac was also deactivated after being on the market for exactly one year - $10 Bejeweled + $10 Cadillac should then remain on the OLG unclaimed prize page until July 1st.
Glad they kept to their policy and promptly deactivated bejewelled.
DeleteI tried two of the new classic white on the first day they came out..win $20 so breakeven..but also played 3 silver gold and crapped out.
Thnx too cl66 for his odds and evaluation.
$10 Classic White 2 - Review
ReplyDeleteGrand prize: 7 x $500,000
Next top prizes: 1 x $100,000 / 5 x $50,000 / 4 x $10,000 / 412 x $1,000
Mid level prizes: $500 / $100
Low level prizes: $75 / $50 / $25 / $20 / $15 / $10
Number of tickets: 7,909,000
Odds to win:
any prize - 1 in 3.34
$15 or more - 1 in 6.72
$20 or more - 1 in 10.35
$25 or more - 1 in 15.18
$50 or more - 1 in 18.26
$75 or more - 1 in 116
$100 or more - 1 in 251
$500 or more - 1 in 11,529
$1,000 or more - 1 in 18,436
$10,000 or more - 1 in 465,235
$50,000 or more - 1 in 608,385
$100,000 or more - 1 in 988,625
$500,000 - 1 in 1,129,857
Out of all 35 games:
Ranks 14th on winning $50,000+
Ranks 19th on winning $5,000+
Ranks 3rd on winning $1,000+
Ranks 12th on winning $250+
Ranks 4th on winning $100+
Ranks 2nd on winning $50+
Ranks 20th on winning 2x-5x your $ or better
Ranks 2nd on winning a ticket price back
Ranks 10th on winning any prize
The good news: it rates very good in odds at $50+ to $1,000+. The bad news: not really bad, but as Darth had noted, the prize payout % is lower than expected. The 4 other $10 tickets range from 69.74% - 69.92%, rather close. $10 Classic White is at 67.85%. This is a inter-provincial game, with Ontario getting 47% of the tickets. You can win up to 3 times on this ticket. To win 2 times comes at odds of 1 in 48 (80% $20, 20% $25). To win 3 times comes at odds of 1 in 939 (76% $75, 24% $100). Expect small prizes to be close to what you would get with Cadillac Riches. The game appears to be exactly the same as the previous version and shares a common structure, as we see with Classic Ruby, Cadillac Riches etc. $10 Cash Blast, out next Monday, i hope will be different, as another knd of game play would make it stand out, giving more appeal. I rate $10 Classic White 2 72/100, making it #2 out of all 35 games and as the 2nd best $10 ticket.
$5 Crossword Tripler (blue) - Review
ReplyDeleteGrand prize: 15 x $100,000
Next top prizes: 6 x $10,000 / 6 x $1,000
Mid level prizes: $300 / $225 / $150 / $100
Low level prizes: $90 / $75 / $60 / $50 / $30 / $20 / $15 / $10 / $5
Number of tickets: 8,486,800
Odds to win:
any prize - 1 in 3.70
$10 or more - 1 in 7.43
$15 or more - 1 in 10.11
$20 or more - 1 in 15.81
$30 or more - 1 in 54.83
$50 or more - 1 in 396
$60 or more - 1 in 688
$75 or more - 1 in 857
$90 or more - 1 in 1,498
$100 or more - 1 in 2,207
$150 or more - 1 in 2,316
$225 or more - 1 in 3,951
$300 or more - 1 in 9,067
$1,000 or more - 1 in 314,326
$10,000 or more - 1 in 404,133
$100,000 - 1 in 565,787
Out of all 35 games:
Ranks 12th on winning $50,000+
Ranks 16th on winning $5,000+
Ranks 25th on winning $1,000+
Ranks 7th on winning $250+
Ranks 18th on winning $100+
Ranks 10th on winning $50+
Ranks 4th on winning 2x-5x on your $ or better
Ranks 7th on winning a ticket price back
Ranks 19th on winning any prize
The good news: the regular 15 grand prizes of $100,000 is always appealing and it rates quite good in the category of odds at winning 2x-5x+ on your $. The bad news: Crossword Tripler's prizes are usually weak in mid range and up. There are only 12 prizes above $300, if you exclude the grand prizes. This game is essentially the same as the current one. Even with a lesser float, the new game rates just slightly better than the current game, so there isn't any reason to favour one over the other at this time. I rate $5 Crossword Tripler (blue) 65/100, making it #7 out of all 35 games and as the 3rd best $5 ticket.
$3 Crossword - Review
ReplyDeleteGrand prize: 10 x $50,000
Next top prizes: 10 x $25,000 / 10 x $10,000 / 10 x $5,000
Mid level prize: $100
Low level prizes: $50 / $25 / $15 / $5 / $3
Number of tickets: 20,706,000
Odds to win:
any prize - 1 in 3.84
$5 or more - 1 in 6,84
$15 or more - 1 in 14.79
$25 or more - 1 in 107
$50 or more - 1 in 666
$100 or more - 1 in 1,992
$5,000 or more - 1 in 517,650
$10,000 or more - 1 in 690,200
$25,000 or more - 1 in 1,035,300
$50,000 - 1 in 2,070,600
Out of all 35 games:
Ranks 23rd on winning $50,000+
Ranks 24th on winning $5,000+
Ranks 30th on winning $1,000+
Ranks 31st on winning $250+
Ranks 16th on winning $100+
Ranks 15th on winning $50+
Ranks 8th on winning 2x-5x your $ or better
Ranks 22nd on winning a ticket price back
Ranks 24th on winning any prize
The good news: the $15 prize is the 2nd best ticket on odds to win 5x on your $. The bad news: within a massive 20.7 million tickets are only 40 prizes above $100, at odds of 1 in 517,650. It has the 3rd worst odds for a $3 ticket on winning any prize, with 74% of all prizes being $3 or $5, and it has odds of 1 in 107 to win more than $15. This game is exactly the same as the previous version. I rate $3 Crossword 43/100, making it #21 out of all 35 games and #7 out of the 12 $3 tickets.
$3 Tetris - Review
ReplyDeleteGrand prize: 2 x $75,000
Next top prizes: 2 x $25,000 / 18 x $1,112 / 36 x $1,000
Mid level prizes: $523 / $500 / $117 / $100
Low level prizes: $61/ $50 / $37 / $36 / $25 / $18 / $12 / $11 / $9 / $6 / $3
Number of tickets: 2,546,600
Odds to win:
any prize - 1 in 3.41
$6 or more - 1 in 6.07
$9 or more - 1 in 15.43
$11 or more - 1 in 21.88
$12 or more - 1 in 43.76
$18 or more - 1 in 108
$25 or more - 1 in 236
$36 or more - 1 in 439
$37 or more - 1 in 540
$50 or more - 1 in 781
$61 or more - 1 in 2,024
$100 or more - 1 in 2,735
$117 or more - 1 in 6,615
$500 or more - 1 in 15,249
$523 or more - 1 in 27,091
$1,000 or more - 1 in 43,907
$1,112 or more - 1 in 115,755
$25,000 or more - 1 in 636,650
$75,000 - 1 in 1,273,300
Out of all 35 games:
Ranks 21st on winning $50,000+
Ranks 28th on winning $5,000+
Ranks 11th on winning $1,000+
Ranks 14th on winning $250+
Ranks 21st on winning $100+
Ranks 17th on winning $50+
Ranks 26th on winning 2x-5x your $ or better
Ranks 10th on winning a ticket price back
Ranks 15th on winning any prize
The good news: uhm...it's the best $3 ticket to double your $ on. The bad news: it's the worst $3 ticket on odds to win $5,000+ and on odds to win 5x+ on your $ and it's the 3rd worst $3 ticket on odds to win 2x-5x+ on your $. You can win up to 4 times on this ticket. 2 times wins are 1 in 14 (72% $6, 27% $9), 3 times wins are 1 in 70 (95% $12) and 4 times wins are 1 in 199 (99% $18). I rate $3 Tetris 46/100, making it #19 out of all 35 games and #5 out of the 12 $3 tickets.
As always, on behalf of the board, thanks for the number crunch and the commentary, CL66!
ReplyDeleteTmF
Classic White 2 has been terrible for me... bought 8 of these from different locations and won $0. Not even $10! :(
ReplyDeleteThat is depressing news. With a chance to win any prize of one in 3.34, the chances of you going 0 for 8 are 1 in 26.
DeleteGuess I'll chime in with my SPPB outlook on the new games here:
ReplyDelete#1844 Classic White 2 (based on 169 games): 1-in-3.76 (26.6% hit rate) and 49.307% payback;
#1830 Crossword Tripler (175): 1-in-3.73 (26.8%) and 58.854%;
#3209 Crossword (127): 1-in-3.86 (25.9%) and 60.189%; and
#1832 Tetris (200): 1-in-3.46 (28.9%) and 55.409%.
As always, the usual caveats. Does not consider the cost of the games (ie. your budget), the top prize-to-float ratios, mid-level prizes (unless you intend to play more than the number of games in parentheses), your luck, my luck, etc., etc..
TmF
Tommy,
DeleteAre your chances to win based only on small prizes as the numbers you quote are at variance to the numbers on the game sheets. ie - Classic White is 1 in 3.34 versus the 1 in 3.76 you have cited. I'm thinking that the variance represents the chances to win a prize of $100 or more.
Good observation, Doug.
DeleteNormally, the SPPB odds are close to the original stated odds because small prizes make up the bulk of the prizes. The amount of prizes in the categories I ignore is so small that adding them only increases one's hit rate odds by a tiny amount.
In the case of CW2, there are more mid-level prizes. Now, the question is should I be avoiding these categories in my calculations. Understand that SPPB is actually quite specific to... me. I have to consider what is my "luck". How does one quantify luck? I can use how lucky I was previously (ie. I once won a 1-in-2,800 odds $25 Lucky Lines). I can be hopeful and double that, 1-in-5,600. I can be super optimistic and believe I can defeat 1-in-1M odds. Or, my luck can be determined by the amount of games I plan or expect to play over the life of the game. If I only play a dozen CW2, I shouldn't expect to win a prize category of 1-in-76k ($500 or $1000 Game #1 prizes).
In my specific case, I very much doubt I would play greater than 169 games. That would cost MY PARENTS $1,690 minus any small prizes along the way. Not going to happen!
Of course, the key to SPPB is the calculation. Each person has to determine roughly how many games they're willing to play or estimate how lucky the might be with a particular game. The choice to increase the number of categories in one's calculations is a personal one. Most of my SPPB calculations are based on 200 games or less since even with $3 games, I am unlikely to exceed that amount.
Of course, the "best" method would be to include all the information and calculate to complete, total expected value return of the game, which is 67.85% at the start. Whether or not it's worth it to calculate this on a daily/weekly/monthly basis depends on how much work one is willing to put into it.
Hope the explanation helps!
TmF
Just wanted to add that you're absolutely right. The difference in the odds does lie in the fact that I ignored the $75 1-in-261 and up categories as well as one $25 1-in-240 category.
DeleteThe abundance of mid-level prizes is probably what drives CL66's method to rate this game highly, also being a $10 game, which gives it an advantage in his $50 and $1000 categories.
TmF
Ok... I really feel chatty today!
DeleteIf we look at CW2's $100 category, the odds of winning it in Game #1 are 1-in-591, in games #2, #3 and #4 1-in-1536 (or if you want to combine those three games, 1-in-512), and 1-in-3858 if you manage to win the combined 3 game win for that amount. Think about it. If you played 500 ($5000) CW2's, you're only 'expected' to encounter that $100 win once (roughly).
TmF
Ok, my mistake. You should encounter the $100 prize roughly twice (1-in-256).
DeleteDoug,
ReplyDelete"I'd like to see you incorporate, in some way, a means to level the playing field." - I am going to try a different "formula" using your perspective - the cost of a ticket related to a prize equates to "x times your $" - i can calculate odds on such for all games for various categories, such as 1x+, 5x+, 10x+ etc. and then summarize those into a single final rating of overall performance - i know this is probaly excessive, but i think, as a starting formula, i will use 15 categories (which if i do it again coud be reduced / simplified) - as i looked at all the stats, what stood out to me were: 1x+ (any prize), 2x+, 3x+, 4x+, 5x+, 10x+, 15x+, 20x+, 25x+, 50x+, 100x+, 250x+, 100x+, 1000x+ and lastly Grand Prize - my use of 9 categories in my regular "number crunch" and the intended 15 here, are meant to be enough to not allow a single ,or a few categories, to skew an overall rating - i make use of "+" in my rating, as opposed to just a specific prize, as there can be quite a difference between the 2 - as an example: the new Crossword Tripler has odds of 1 in 46,631 to win $100, but the odds to win $100 or more, are 1 in 2,207 - any comments you have on these thoughts before i get in too deep on this experiment would be apprecciated - lol (^_^)
I actually thinks this is a good idea, CL66.
DeleteThe prize multiple levels would remove the bias against lower cost games in higher absolute prize level categories and would actually allow a better comparison against different price points, ie. costs.
The 1000x+ category would account for any remaining top prizes despite their miniscule odds.
For now, I'm just trying to visualize how a game like 20X Lucky which has a lot of 4x prizes would compare to Winner Take All which has a lot of 5x prizes would compare to Quest For Gold which has a lot of 8x prizes... but offhand, I think it's a good idea.
TmF
P.S. You might want to repost this or post your thoughts on this in the lastest blog entry (June 4th, 2015).